Corn
Price action: May corn rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.72, ending the session above the 10-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures firmed to begin the week, with support stemming from rallying wheat futures. A daily flash sale from Japan and solid export inspections also underpinned corn futures, though today marked the start date for Chinese tariffs against U.S. ag goods, which ultimately negated some of that optimism. Some uncertainty lies around USDA’s WASDE Report, due out Tuesday at 11 a.m. CT, with some analysts anticipating a reduction in demand due to escalating trade tensions.
Japan’s purchase amounted to 126,000 MT, for delivery during 2024-25, while USDA reported notable weekly corn inspections of 1.82 MMT (71.6 million bu.) for the week ended March 6. That was up 467,239 MT from the previous week and well above analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 1.0 MMT to 1.4 MMT. Meanwhile, Russia’s state media also reported this morning that the U.S. has resumed corn exports to Russia, which had been suspended since March 2022 following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
China’s fresh round of tariffs against U.S. goods, included a 15% additional duty on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, while an additional 10% tariff was applied to soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. China also announced tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products on Saturday, retaliating against levies Ottawa induced in October.
In other news, the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) announced the Mid-Mississippi will officially open for navigation at 7:00 a.m. CT today. Following NGFA Barge Freight Trading Rule 18(J), a special three-person committee declared the opening after the MV Phillip M. Pfeiffer reached Dubuque, Iowa on March 8, with a suitable empty dry cargo covered barge.
Technical analysis: May corn futures ended the session back above the 10-day moving average of $4.70 1/2, with initial resistance now serving at $4.73 1/4. Meanwhile, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that a near-term bottom is in place, with support now serving at the 10-day moving average, which is closely backed by the 100-day moving average, currently trading at $4.64. Bulls will need to forge a close above $4.80, while bears will continue to look towards securing a close below support at $4.42 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybean futures closed 11 cents lower to $10.14 and settled near session lows. May meal futures fell $2.10 to $302.30, on session lows. May bean oil plunged 116 points to 42.26 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw relative weakness today despite strength seen in the grain market. Chinese tariffs on U.S. ag goods started today, though goods already in transit will be exempt from these additional tariffs until April 12. The new tax includes a 10% tariff on soybeans. Over the weekend, China also enacted fresh tariffs on Canada in response to Ottawan levies against Chinese electric vehicles introduced in October. That included a 100% tariff on Canola, which weighed heavily on soybean and soyoil futures today. A heavy tariff on canola is likely to lead to more canola being crushed in North America, drawing from formerly robust crusher demand for soybeans.
Export demand remained robust for U.S. soybeans through the week ended March 6. USDA reported export inspections of 844,218 MT (31.0 million bu.) for the week, up 144,260 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of analysts’ pre-report expectations. Accumulated inspections continue to run well ahead of the required pace to hit the current USDA export estimate. Traders will be keyed in on USDA’s export forecast in tomorrow WASDE reports. A Bloomberg poll of analysts shows expectations for exports to total 1.821 billion bushels, essentially in line with their February forecast at 1.825 billion. The survey showed expectations for endings stocks to remain steady with February at 380 million bushels.
USDA reported daily export sales of 195,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Weakness in canola undercut soybeans today, giving bears the near-term technical edge. Reverberations on the trade front continue to bleed volatility into the marketplace. Continued selling pressure has bears targeting support at $10.11 3/4, which is reinforced by psychological support at $10.00. Bulls are seeking to overcome initial resistance at $10.21 before tackling the 10-day moving average at $10.25.
May meal futures closed lower today after rejecting the 40-day moving average, which will remain resistance at $305.40. Strength above that mark would target resistance at $310.0. Bears are looking to maintain their technical edge and challenge key support at $300.0, which is reinforced by support at $296.7.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 11 1/4 cents to $5.62 1/2, nearer the daily high. May HRW wheat gained 13 3/4 cents to $5.78 1/2 and nearer the daily high. May spring wheat futures climbed 11 3/4 cents to $6.04 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting from the speculators, to continue the rebounds from last week’s contract lows. The recent downdraft in the U.S. dollar index is a bullish “outside market” element for the wheat markets. On this day, wheat traders brushed aside lower crude oil prices that are presently in a downtrend. Wheat market bulls were also not bothered much by the risk-off trader/investor mentality in the general marketplace that saw the U.S. stock indexes sharply down and hitting multi-month lows to start the trading week.
While China has added retaliatory tariffs of 15% on U.S. wheat imports, that nation has not been a big buyer of American wheat.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 216,173 MT for the week ended March 6, down 174,418 MT from the previous week and below pre-report expectations. Tuesday comes USDA’s monthly supply and demand report but no major changes are expected in the wheat categories.
World Weather Inc. today said another round of significant warming is coming to the U.S. Plains over the next several days followed by cooling this weekend into next week. There will be no threatening cold. Weekend precipitation in central and southern Oklahoma and north-central Texas “was sufficient to improve topsoil moisture and may stimulate some greening and new crop growth as temperatures trend warmer. Greater rain is still needed in other parts of the central and southwestern Plains. A moist and mild spring is warranted this year so that crops can set and develop new tillers to make up for all the damage from winter cold,” said World Weather. Wheat in the southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states is either coming out of dormancy or has been greening recently.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still trending down on the daily bar charts. However, more price strength this week would begin to suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.66 and then at $5.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.53 1/4 and then at Friday’s low of $5.44 1/2.
The HRW bulls next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.41 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.83 1/2 and then at $5.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.66 and then at $5.60.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 7 points to 66.00 cents, marking a low-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Modest gains in cotton futures eased as the session progressed, with a hefty drop in equities weighing on the natural fiber, along with returned selling in crude oil futures. The marketplace is seemingly concerned President Trump’s trade policies will induce a U.S. recession. China’s 15% additional tariff on cotton, which began today, will likely continue to pressure cotton prices, while some bottoming action seems to be occurring in the U.S. dollar, which could compound a move higher. Meanwhile, some lingering ambiguity around export demand could be manifested in tomorrow’s USDA WASDE Report. Look for sideways to lower trade into its release at 11 a.m. CT.
World Weather Inc. reports cotton areas in far northern Argentina will continue to dry out for several more days, with crop moisture stress increasing. Significant rain is unlikely before March 21. Moreover, Brazil cotton areas will also be drying out in Bahia for at least one more week, while rain impacts Mato Grosso and neighboring areas, maintaining a favorable outlook for development. Bahia may start to receive rain in the March 15-21 period.
Technical analysis: May cotton managed to end the session above the 40- and 100-day moving averages, currently trading at 65.82 cents and 64.86 cents, though resistance at the confluence of the 10- and 20-day moving averages, around 66.45 cents, kept short-covering efforts to a minimum. Bears continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage and look to edge below the March 4 low of 62.54 cents, while bulls need to overcome resistance at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.