Corn
Price action: May corn rose 4 1/4 cents to $4.55 3/4, ending nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were able to post modest corrective gains at midweek as pressure from a plummeting crude oil market was somewhat negated by a diving U.S. dollar. Today’s strength, albeit mild, was the first positive session in the corn market since Feb. 20, with more than a 60-cent selloff occurring from the date to Tuesday’s two-and-a-half month low close. Technical pressure will likely continue to curb earnest short-covering efforts outside a catalyst, which could present itself amid easing tariffs, which were just enforced a day ago. The Trump administration announced a one-month delay on automotive tariffs on Mexico and Canada this afternoon. While a full rollback of tariffs is not expected, today’s delay on autos is a compromise that suggests Trump will negotiate.
In Brazil, rain is expected to occur periodically in Mato Grosso, slowing fieldwork raising some concern over late season safrinha plantings. World Weather Inc. notes late planted safrinha corn in Mato Grosso may struggle during the dry season for the moisture needed to support best yields. Rain is expected to return in center south crop areas next week.
Earlier today, the Energy Information Administration reported weekly ethanol production averaged 1.093 million barrels per day (bpd) for the week ended Feb. 28, up 12,000 bpd (1.1%) from the previous week and 36,000 bpd (2.4%) above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks declined 282,000 barrels to 27.289 million barrels.
USDA will release its weekly export sales data early Thursday morning with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT during the week ended Feb. 27. Last week, net sales of 794,694 MT were reported for the previous week.
Technical analysis: May corn fell short of securing a close back above the 200-day moving average of $4.56 1/2, which is closely backed by the 100-day moving average of $4.63 1/4. Bears continue to hold the near-term technical advantage and will continue to look towards holding a close below the August 2024 low of $4.14 1/4, with interim support serving at $4.50 and $4.53. Conversely, bulls’ objective is to edge back above resistance at $4.75, with first resistance standing at $4.60 and again at $4.65.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 12 3/4 cents to $10.11 3/4, nearer the daily high. May soybean meal rose $6.30 to $299.80 and nearer the daily high. May soybean oil rose 15 points to 42.99 cents, nearer the session high and hit a four-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures markets today saw short covering and corrective buying interest following recent solid losses. Also a potential positive today, the Trump administration this afternoon announced a one-month delay for automobile tariffs on Mexico and Canada, suggesting the administration is willing to negotiate with its trading partners. This week’s sharp losses in the U.S. dollar index, which today hit a four-month low, are also a bullish outside-market element for the soy complex.
World Weather Inc. today said Argentina soybean crop weather “will trend too wet in the southwest during the coming week, resulting in some local flooding and some possible damage to sunseed quality.” Dry weather in far northern parts of the nation may prove to be threatening some minor oilseed production areas, although rain is expected next week. Southwestern and central Argentina should also trend drier for a while next week. Meanwhile, Brazil’s weather will remain dry-biased for central and northern Minas Gerais into Bahia and some drying is also expected for a while in the interior southern parts of the nation along with Paraguay during the coming week. Rain is expected to return in center-south crop areas next week, said World Weather.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 300,000 to 550,000 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of zero to 50,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $10.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $9.55 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.15 and then at $10.25. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at this week’s low of $9.91.
Soybean meal futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $310.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $290.80. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $302.00 and then at $305.50. First support is seen at $295.00 and then at $290.80.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 46.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 39.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 43.47 cents and then at 44.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 42.03 cents and then at 41.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 11 1/2 cents to $5.48 1/4, while HRW wheat closed up 8 1/2 cents at $5.57, each closing nearer session highs. May HRS futures rose 8 cents to $5.88.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures notched short-covering gains compliments of a plunging U.S. dollar. Today’s gains were the first in eight sessions as risk-off selling plagued the broader marketplace. However, some budding relief around recent tariffs has induced corrective buying in the grain complex, though technical resistance will likely continue to curb earnest gains outside of a catalyst. However, continued pressure on the dollar will surely lend support.
Traders seemingly ignored a report from Russia’s chief meteorologist, stating the country’s winter crops had emerged in much better condition at the end of the winter than when they entered dormancy. He was referring primarily to crops in the European part of Russia, which has seen an unusually warm winter. However, he did warn that a lack of precip during winter may hurt crops if spring rainfall isn’t timely.
In the U.S., colder temps in the Plains and Midwest will slow the warming of soil temps and keep a larger part of winter crops dormant. Meanwhile, much warmer weather is expected this weekend and may induce some greening in the south.
Early Thursday morning, USDA will release its weekly export sales data, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 225,000 to 450,000 MT during the week ended Feb. 27. Last week, net sales of 270,000 MT were reported for the previous week.
Technical analysis: May SRW wheat futures managed to recapture Tuesday’s losses, though resistance around $5.50 continued to prove stubborn, as bears continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage. However, the next objective for bulls is to secure a close above resistance at $5.80, though first resistance stands at $5.63 1/2 and again at $5.75. Meanwhile, bears will continue to look toward breaching the $5.00 area, with first support serving at $5.37 then at the contract low of $5.30.
May HRW wheat futures were limited by resistance at $5.61 1/4, while initial support served at $5.51 1/4. Bulls will continue to face headwinds amid looming resistance at the 100-, 40-, 10-, 20- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $5.82 3/4 to $6.06 1/2, while additional support will lie at this week’s low of $5.41 1/2, then at $5.38 1/2, $5.28 3/4 and $5.16 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rose 43 points to 63.67 cents and nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw tepid short covering after recent strong selling pressure pushed prices to a contract low on Tuesday. Also somewhat supportive for cotton today, the Trump administration this afternoon announced it is delaying automotive tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month. That suggests the administration is willing to negotiate with its trading partners. The key outside markets were neutral for cotton today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower, but so were crude oil prices.
World Weather Inc. today said rain will be needed this spring in the southwestern U.S. desert region, southern California and both south and west Texas “to ensure favorable soil moisture for spring planting.” A few areas in the southeastern U.S. are still drier than usual and need rain as well. The U.S. Delta will be wettest for a while along with portions of the interior southeast. West Texas precipitation will remain insignificant through the middle part of March. “South Texas needs warmer temperatures and abundant precipitation to induce the best planting environment for March, but the warm up will occur without significant rain. South Texas will be dry for at least the next two weeks,” said the forecaster.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report will be closely scrutinized by cotton traders. Recent U.S. cotton sales abroad have been anemic, with many cotton market watchers now saying the current yearly USDA cotton export sales forecast is too high.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 64.00 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 62.54 cents and then at 62.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.