Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 4 3/4 cents to $4.51 1/2, near mid-range and hit a 2.5-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market continues to bleed amid worries about a U.S. tariff-led world trade war that could impact $1 trillion worth of global commerce, including U.S. ag exports. China has already signaled it will retaliate to the new U.S. tariffs by focusing on U.S. ag products. A slumping U.S. dollar index and early signs of seller exhaustion among corn traders did help to lift corn futures off their daily lows by the close. A lower crude oil market that today hit a three-month low is a bearish “outside-market” element for corn futures at present.
World Weather Inc. today said Argentine crop weather will trend too wet in the southwest during the coming week resulting in some local flooding. Dryness in far northern parts of the nation may prove to be threatening some minor grain production areas, although rain is expected next week. Southwestern and central Argentina should also trend drier for a while next week. Meanwhile, Brazil’s weather will remain dry-biased for central and northern Minas Gerais into Bahia and some drying is also expected for a while in the interior southern parts of the nation along with Paraguay during the coming week. In Mato Grosso slow fieldwork is raising some concern over late season Safrinha corn planting.
Pro Farmer South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier kept his corn production forecasts unchanged this week for both the Brazilian and Argentine crops, at 123 MMT and 46 MMT, respectively.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.59 1/4 and then at $4.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.42 1/2 and then at $4.40.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans slid 12 1/4 points to $9.99, the lowest close since Dec. 24. May meal fell $4.50 to $293.50, while May soyoil fell 65 points to 42.84 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans faced another day of pressure though edged from the intraday low as the session progressed amid light corrective buying following the recent string of risk-off selling. In addition to 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, President Trump imposed an additional 10% duty on Chinese goods, doubling tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%. In retaliation, China announced an additional 10% tariff on U.S. soybean imports, which will go into effect on March 10. See our Special Report for more details.
China’s customs authority also suspended the soybean import qualifications from three U.S. exporters and halted the imports of U.S. lumber, effective immediately. The three U.S. companies affected are CHS Inc., Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising LLC and EGT. China’s customs said it detected ergot and seed treatment agent-treated soybeans in imported U.S. soybeans.
However, recent pressure across the soy complex spurred another daily soyoil sale, totaling 20,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his soybean estimates for both Brazil and Argentina unchanged at 170 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively. He indicated a neutral bias going forward for both crops but did note concerns of dryness in parts of southern Brazil, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, as well as excessive moisture in parts of central Brazil as soybeans mature and hot, dry conditions in parts of northern Argentina.
Technical analysis: May soybeans edged to a more than two-month intraday low but ended off the session low albeit below support at $10.02 1/2. Initial support will serve at $9.93 1/2, which is backed by today’s low of $9.91. However, technical resistance will be layered at the 100-, 10-, 20-, 40- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $10.30 1/4 to $10.66 3/4. Bears will continue to work towards the December low of $9.55 1/2, while bulls will need to edge back above that $10.50.
May meal futures gapped lower overnight and extended to a fresh for the move low, with bears ultimately securing a close below support at $295.90 and $293.90. Initial support will now serve at today’s low of $291.30, which is backed by support at $290.80. Meanwhile, resistance will stand at the psychological $300.00 level, then at the 10-, 20-, 100- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $301.00 to $308.30.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW futures closed 11 cents lower to $5.36 3/4 and closed nearer session lows. May HRW plunged 13 1/2 cents to $5.48 1/2. May spring wheat futures fell 11 1/4 cents to $5.80.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures continue to face heaving selling pressure, closing lower for the seventh consecutive session. Funds have been active sellers across the agricultural complex over the past week, led by liquidations of longs in the corn market. Wheat bulls did show some signs of life mid-day today, which bulls will look to followthrough on tomorrow. Given that prices made a contract low today, some value buying is possible here in the next couple of days.
USDA reporting daily sales of 130,000 MT of white wheat to South Korea did little to drum up buying interest today. Markets are in risk off mode, which has not been exclusive to the agricultural markets. Stocks have faced sustained selling pressure while bonds and precious metals have shown strength, common when markets are facing heightened levels of volatility. Risk-off selling showed some signs of stalling in the latter half of today’s session. How price action is tomorrow will be key.
Technical analysis: May SRW futures forged a fresh contract low this morning before seeing some corrective buying. Bears continue to maintain full control of the technical advantage. Support comes in at $5.33 1/2 then $5.30 on continued selling pressure. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.41, which is reinforced by the psychological $5.50 mark.
Bears continue to maintain the advantage in May HRW futures as well as prices have closed lower for seven consecutive sessions. Support stems from today’s contract low of $5.41 1/2 on continued selling, which is reinforced by support at $5.35. Resistance stands at $5.50 then $5.58 1/2 on corrective strength.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton plummeted 227 points to 63.24 cents, marking a new contract low close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures continued to tumble, edging to a fresh for-the-move low as general selling across the marketplace persisted as traders mull escalating trade tensions. Cotton continues to break down technically, with plunging equities and fading crude oil futures shaking off any support from a declining U.S. dollar. Cotton was also in the retaliatory crosshairs as China announced the country will implement a 15% duty on U.S. cotton, which has already faced lingering export demand woes.
Multi-year lows in cotton will likely result in notably reduced U.S. cotton acreage in 2025-26, making weather increasingly important. World Weather Inc. maintains rain will be needed during the balance of winter and early spring in the southwestern desert region, southern California and both south and west Texas to ensure favorable soil moisture for spring planting. A few areas in the southeastern U.S. are still drier than usual and rain is needed as well.
Technical analysis: May cotton bears forged fresh contract lows today, with sights set on breaching 60.00 cents, with minimal support existing outside of today’s low of 62.54 cents. Bulls will need to edge back above the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at 66.30 cents, 67.11 cents and 67.80 cents, and ultimately psychological resistance at 70.00 cents in order to regain technical control.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.