Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 4 1/2 cents to $4.61 3/4, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures have scored impressive short-covering price gains following Monday’s mid-morning USDA planting intentions report that leaned bearish. It’s important to note that when a futures market rallies in the face of bearish fundamental news, that’s a sign of underlying price strength in that market and that more upside price action may occur and at the very least the market likely has a price floor established.
A rebound well up from this week’s lows in the U.S. stock indexes also added a bit more risk appetite into the marketplace, which was friendly for corn futures.
World Weather Inc. today said that in South American corn-growing regions, rain will fall in most of Brazil outside of Bahia and northern Minas Gerais at one time or another during the next 10 days to two weeks. “The moisture alternating with periods of sunshine should be good for most late-season crops. Concern remains about the lack of moisture deep in the ground and how that may impact late planted Safrinha crops in late April, May and early June, hurting yield potentials after the monsoon season ends. Argentina will trend drier later this week into next week and that will be ideal for filling and maturing summer crops and supporting their harvest,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bull and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have gained momentum this week. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.77 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the March low of $4.42 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.65 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.54 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 19 1/2 cents to $10.34 1/4, posting the highest close since Feb. 27, while May meal fell 40 cents to $202.30. May soyoil surged 255 points to 47.44 cents, marking the highest close since Feb. 18.
Fundamental analysis: Rallying soyoil spurred short-covering in soybeans amid news that an enhanced biofuels blending mandate may be around the corner. A coalition of oil and biofuel groups were set to meet with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency today, to make a case for higher biomass diesel mandates. The coalition was expected to push for mandates in the range of 5.5 billion gallons to 5.7 billion, up from the current 3.53 billion gallons.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported earlier today that the U.S. is also preparing to deliver a long-anticipated verdict on China’s compliance with the 2020 “Phase 1” trade deal—a review that could escalate tensions between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during an already high-stakes week for China/U.S. relations. The findings could influence a range of decisions, including whether to revoke China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, a move likened to slapping a 30% tariff on Chinese goods.
With tomorrow comes President Trump’s “Liberation Day,” where he is expected to apply reciprocal tariffs, though he’s not saying to what extent yet despite confirming he has finalized his tariff plan. His announcement could reshape global trade dynamics and signal how aggressively the Trump administration plans to use tariffs in his second term.
Technical analysis: May soybeans ended the session above the 40-day moving average, currently trading at $10.32, for the first time since Feb. 21, enhancing the bull camp’s technical posture. Bulls will need to edge above the 200-day moving average of $10.48 in order to advance toward their next target of $10.70. Meanwhile, bears will continue to look to edge below the March low of $9.91, with first support serving around $10.10 and then at the psychological $10.00 level.
May soyoil surged to the highest level since Feb. 21, with bulls focused on taking out the February high of 48.55 cents, with solid support serving at the 40-, 100-, 10-, 200- and 20-day moving averages, layered from 44.47 cents to 42.94 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW futures rallied 3 1/2 cents to $5.40 1/2 and closed nearer session highs. May HRW futures surged 8 1/4 cents to $5.65 1/4. May spring wheat futures rose 2 cents to $5.94.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures posted gains again today, building on yesterday’s strength. Winter wheat futures continue to trade near recent lows despite recent reports from USDA confirming weakening crop conditions, particularly in HRW acres. Over the month of March, conditions (rated in percent “good” to “excellent”) fell 5 points in Kansas, 9 points in Montana, 1 point in North Dakota, 2 points in Oklahoma, 1 point in South Dakota, 8 points in Texas and 7 points in Wyoming. Conditions were steady in Colorado and improved 7 points in Nebraska. Meanwhile, conditions generally improved in SRW acres, which explains the relative weakness seen in SRW futures recently.
Global wheat prices continue to trend lower despite some production concerns in many of the world’s top producers. Australia’s wheat production is likely to drop by 16% in 2025/26 from last year’s bumper crop as dryness reduces soil moisture in some regions. Farmers are planting their winter crops over the next couple months in the world’s third largest exporting country. Meanwhile, Argus Media cut their forecast for Russian wheat production to 2025/26 to 80.3 MMT, down from 81.5 MMT in November. The cut came amidst expectations for lower spring wheat plantings. That would be below 2024/25 production of 81.3 MMT and the third consecutive yearly decline.
As we have mentioned in the past, the struggle for wheat bulls has really not been a supply issue over the past several months. Importers have slowed purchases compared to the past few years and have opted to burn through stocks rather than replenishing reserves. It is a matter of when importers will return to the market. Supply woes in the upcoming marketing year could lead to impressive strength as dwindling production meets strong, resurgent demand.
Technical analysis: May SRW futures saw another day of corrective buying as bulls tried and failed to overcome 10-day moving average resistance. Bears continue to hold the technical advantage and are looking to hold resistance at $5.42 3/4, the 10-day moving average, on a bounce. Strength above that mark looks to challenge the psychological $5.50 mark. Support lies at $5.36 3/4 then $5.30 on a reversal back lower, though bears are ultimately eyeing the contract low at $5.17 1/2.
May HRW futures posted impressive gains on the day, though bears continue to maintain the technical advantage. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $5.69 1/4, which is backed by the psychological $5.75 mark. Support comes in at $5.57 then the psychological $5.50 mark on a reversal lower.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rallied 142 points to 68.25 cents, marking a six-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures scored short-covering gains, ultimately edging to the highest intraday level since Feb. 24. USDA’s confirmation of lower acres on Monday, combined with improved economic data from China lent support to the natural fiber, with traders slightly more comfortable despite President Trump’s long awaited “Liberation Day,” which is likely to include a barrage of reciprocal tariffs, though details continue to remain limited, which have created a general sentiment of uncertainty across the broader marketplace.
World Weather Inc. reports West Texas will get some rain late this week, but it is expected to be brief, leaving need for much more, while South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend faced significant rains last week. In South America, cotton in far northern Argentina will be dry biased for a while that should bode well for late season development in areas that received rain recently. Rain is expected to continue to impact Mato Grosso and neighboring areas of Brazil periodically maintaining a favorable outlook for development. Some Bahia crops have been a little too dry recently and rain is needed for late season development.
Technical analysis: May cotton bulls were out in full force today, ultimately wiping out the March high and also the recent downtrend that has persisted on the daily barchart since last September. While today’s gains were quite impressive, bulls will need to overcome the 100-day moving average of 68.91 cents to ultimately breach resistance at 70.00 cents. Moreover, near-term overbought conditions could spur some modest profit-taking, though solid support lies at the 40-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages, trading at 66.71 cents, 66.30 cents and 66.21 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.