Corn
Price action: May corn futures closed 3 1/4 cents higher to $4.53 1/4 and settled nearer session highs. That still marked an 11-cent loss on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures saw a volatile day of trade before closing modestly higher on the day. Positioning drove a lot of price action today as Monday’s USDA reports will yield a large catalyst on the marketplace. Traders have priced in a bearish outcome as prices have neared the early March lows as prices closed lower from Tuesday to Thursday this week. Monday’s reports are likely to set the tone for the coming week and even the medium-term trend until weather and spring planting begin to take hold of the market. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows expectations for 94.4 million planted acres. Trade guesses ranged from 92.5 to 96.6 million acres. The consensus is the market is currently trading an acreage number around 95 million. Our survey yielded planted acres below average at 93.75 million, which would be bullish. For stocks, the Bloomberg survey estimated total stocks at 8.154 billion bushels as of March 1. That is below stocks a year ago, which totaled 8.352 billion bushels. Our forecast was below the trade average at 8.104 billion. Both of our estimates are below the trade average. The big question on stocks comes down to feed and residual use, which was rather disappointing in the first quarter of the marketing year.
30-day outlook: Once the dust settles following next week’s reports, attention will turn back to South America and Brazilian production as the safrinha crop continues to develop. Temperatures in Brazil remain and are forecast to stay above average. Precipitation is needed and expected over the next couple of weeks. World Weather Inc. notes that regular rounds of rain are expected over the next couple of weeks, improving safrinha crop conditions in nearly all areas. Portions of northeastern Brazil will miss much of the rain, which will raise crop stress for immature crops. While rain is forecast, the soil is currently so dry that even upcoming precip is not expected to fully restore soil moisture. Private forecasters have a fairly wide range of estimates for Brazilian corn production, but ultimately it will come down to weather over the next month. A bountiful harvest is likely to draw some export demand from the U.S., especially as trade barriers continue to go in place around the globe.
90-day outlook: Planting season is right around the corner and the market’s attention will quickly turn to planting pace and crop conditions. The Midwest will see two rounds of nearly widespread precip over the next week, helping boost soil moisture in advance of spring plantings. The shorter-term forecasts look favorable for establishing soil moisture and temperatures, which will be good for establishing crops. Key will be how the weather is in April and May as planters really begin to get rolling and if it stays dry enough to allow for timely fieldwork. A weather market is right around the corner and if acres come in tighter than expected next week, any delay could lead to sustained strength.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 6 1/4 cents to $10.23 and gained 13 1/4 cents on the week, while May soymeal dove $1.00 to $293.50, ultimately marking a $6.80 weekly loss. May soyoil rose 89 points, forging a 315-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: Soybeans were able to eventually post followthrough strength to end the week. Soyoil strength continued to prop up the complex, despite a general risk-off tone into next week’s Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports, which will transpire just ahead of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2. Trade will likely hold a subdued tone into these events as the marketplace leans toward risk aversion in an environment of heightened uncertainty around both supply and demand. However, more will be known as the week progresses next week, with traders then likely turning a focus to weather.
30-day outlook: With warming temps and an advancing calendar, U.S. weather will be a major market driver. While traders are generally favoring a large corn crop, mother nature must cooperate, leaving some uncertainty around final plantings. As April approaches, World Weather Inc. notes the Midwest will see two rounds of nearly widespread precip, which will leave much of the region with favorable soil moisture ahead of plantings, while also slowing early-season fieldwork. Meanwhile, the lower Midwest will see additional precip April 5-7. The forecaster maintains eastern North Dakota, northeastern South Dakota into central Minnesota should be the driest overall though the next two weeks, leaving the region left in need of significant precip to improve conditions for planning and establishment of crops later in the spring.
90-day outlook: Exports, crush and a revamped biofuels policy will be a continuous market focus as the year progresses. The Trump administration has certainly held its ground on tariffs but has leaned toward concessions around its implantation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. However, logistical issues could arise, or become exacerbated by, President Trump’s proposal to implement fees on Chinese ships. The effects will not only hamstring agriculture exports in general but also dampen domestic crush. However, progress toward new trade deals and/or an increase in the biofuels mandate will certainly lend support.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat futures prices fell 3 3/4 cents to $5.28 1/4 and nearer the daily high. Prices hit a contract low and for the week were down 30 cents. May HRW futures lost 14 1/2 cents to $5.51 3/4, nearer the daily low, hit a three-week low and on the week were down 37 cents. May spring wheat futures fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.81 and lost 24 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The recent downdraft in winter wheat futures prices sets the stage for follow-through technical selling pressure next week. However, wheat markets are now short-term oversold, technically, and due for corrective bounces very soon. Monday’s USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports have major market price implications and their results may set the tone for grain trading for the next several weeks. It’s likely the price movements in corn and/or soybeans will be more critical to wheat price direction after the USDA data dump on Monday near midday.
30-day outlook: Weather has been extreme in U.S. wheat country recently and the next couple weeks hold the same in store. World Weather Inc. today said it will be “much too wet in U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas for the end of next week and in the following weekend.” In the meantime, the southwestern U.S. Plains should remain dry or notably drier than usual for the next ten days to two weeks. Rain is expected in northern and eastern parts of hard red winter wheat country at times and that will stimulate some improved crop conditions in Nebraska and eastern crop areas of Kansas, and Oklahoma. Additional hot and windy conditions will impact a part of the central and southwestern Plains for a little while next week. “Frost and freezes in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas Sunday and Monday will not induce permanent damage, although it will add to dryland crop stress after so many very warm to hot days recently.”
90-day outlook: Rising global trade tensions, a sell off in the U.S. stock market and a risk-off trader and investor mentality across most markets the past couple weeks have sent the wheat market bulls to the sidelines. However, in the next several weeks or a bit longer, it’s likely risk appetite will improve and that the disruptive U.S. trade and foreign policies will begin to level off. That scenario is a positive one for the wheat futures market that has been beaten up badly. Remember that futures traders tend to factor in worst-case scenarios for expected major events. Yet, it’s not often worst-case expectations come to fruition.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 18 points to 66.89 cents, marking a 162-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures posted modest corrective losses, with selling limited by technical support and a decline in the U.S. dollar, while heavy pressure in the equities and crude oil certainly hovered over the natural fiber. Moreover, with USDA’s Prospective Planting and quarterly Grain Stocks reports set for release at 11 a.m. CT on Monday and President Trump’s April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ at midweek, traders are likely to remain rather cautious. Look for sideways to lower trade to continue into early next week, with USDA’s planting estimates certainly lending some direction thereafter.
30-day outlook: Traders are generally suspecting a notable drop in cotton acres amid a sizable stretch of subpar prices as demand woes linger. If realized, a notable drop in planted acres would make U.S. weather more crucial in the coming months, which could certainly lead to greater short-covering as risk premiums rise. World Weather Inc. reports significant rain has occurred in South Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain, which induced some local flooding, but the moisture should prove to be a big boon for future planting, emergence and establishment, ending a long period of dryness. The Delta is expected to see wetter weather late next week into the following weekend but should see a favorable mix of weather until then. The southeastern states need a little more moisture, while water supply in California is favorable, but there is need for rain in the south and in most of Arizona.
90-day outlook: Demand for cotton will be monitored as the year progresses, as traders use it as an economic gauge as inflation is likely to linger. However, the marketplace will also closely watch for fresh trade deals and weigh the probability of a recession, which will certainly affect equities and thus cotton. This week, the Conference Board reported its consumer confidence index plunged 7.2 points to 92.9 this month to a four-year low, amid economic and policy uncertainty. This could certainly affect the demand for cotton products if that trend continues. See our weekly Newsletter for further information.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.