Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3 1/2 cents to $4.15 1/4, closing near the session high and at a two-month high close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures turned decidedly higher in late-morning trade, amid backing from strength in wheat futures and increasing gains across the soy complex. However, a flash sale to Mexico totaling 180,000 MT for delivery during 2024-25 did supply some early support. While today’s advances were mostly modest in nature, the collective strength across the grain and soy complexes was noteworthy given lacking outside market support as the U.S. dollar posted notable gains while nearby crude oil futures edged lower for the fourth straight session.
Meanwhile, concerns could be rising as Hurricane Helene advances toward the Gulf of Mexico. The storm will make landfall as a strong hurricane in northwestern Florida Thursday, with remnants heading toward the Midwest. In South America, concern around planting weather will continue to grasp trade attention as significant rain is not likely to impact key growing areas for a while, although recent rain in the south of Brazil was good for planting first season crops. World Weather Inc. reports improved rainfall in center west Brazil is still ten days to two weeks away, while Argentina weather will continue to be dry biased in west-central and some northwestern areas.
USDA will release its weekly export sales data early Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net sales during the week ended Sept. 19 to have ranged from 600,000 MT to 1.3 MMT. Last week net sales of 847,350 MT were reported for the previous week.
Technical analysis: December corn ended the session with a high-range close after spending the overnight session below the 10-day moving average of $4.10 1/4, which will continue to serve as initial support. From there, support serves at the 20- and 40-day moving averages, each currently trading at $4.07 1/4 and $4.02 1/2, with bears still looking toward the contract low of $3.85. Conversely, initial resistance at $4.16 1/2 will continue to serve as a resistance, with bulls needing capture $4.23 3/4, which is backed by the 100-day moving average, currently trading at $4.31 1/4 to regain earnest technical momentum.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold on 2023-crop production.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2023-crop.
Soybeans
Advice: We advise soybean hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 10% of expected 2024-crop production to get to 20% sold in the cash market.
Price action: November soybeans rose 11 cents to $10.53 1/4, near the session high and closed at a two-month high close. December soybean meal gained $2.30 to $328.20 and near the session high. December soybean oil rose 81 points to 44.15 cents, nearer the session high and hit a two-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil markets today saw technically related speculator buying interest as the near-term chart postures for both markets have turned bullish. However, soybean meal futures continue to languish in a choppy trading range, which if such continues could squelch gains in soybeans and bean oil going forward.
A rally in the U.S. dollar index and solidly lower crude oil prices did somewhat limit the upside in the soybean complex futures today.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean crop weather “will continue dry for a couple of additional days until the remnants of Hurricane Helene and an upper-level low pressure center combine over the Midwest, northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin to bolster soil moisture and delay fieldwork.”
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 900,000 to 2.0 million MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of zero to 50,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean futures bulls are enjoying a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart that suggests a market bottom is in place. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.58 1/4 and then at $10.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.31 1/4 and then at $10.15.
Recent price action in soybean meal also suggests a market bottom is in place. However, there is stiff overhead resistance around the $335.00 area that has turned back recent rallies. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the August high of $335.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at $330.00 and then at $332.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $322.10 and then at $320.00.
Soybean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have upside momentum. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 46.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 40.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 44.43 cents and then at 45.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 43.06 cents and then at 42.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE – Sell another 10% of 2024-crop in the cash market to get to 20% sold.
Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE – Sell another 10% of 2024-crop to get to 20% sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rallied 11 1/4 cents to $5.89 1/4, while December HRW futures rose a dime to $5.81, both forging high-range closes. December spring wheat futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $6.17.
Fundamental analysis: SRW wheat led today’s price action, which was quite notable given solid U.S. dollar gains. Meanwhile, technical support curbed selling efforts as did a report from SovEcon, which indicated winter sowing rates in Russia had dipped to an 11-year low. Moreover, the consultancy warned that the slow sowing campaign in the southern and Volga regions set preconditions for a relatively low harvest next year as lingering dryness continues to affect the area, along with portions of Kazakhstan, eastern Ukraine and a portion of Russia’s Central Region.
In South America, rains in southern Brazil have been supportive for development potential, although some harvest delay has occurred recently in Parana and immediate neighboring areas of Brazil, while Argentina still needs significant rain soon to protect the crop’s production potential, according to World Weather Inc. The moisture that is expected is not likely to change crop conditions in Cordoba, Santa Fe or areas north that have been the driest, notes the forecaster, though recent precip in Buenos Aires and Entre Rios was welcome and beneficial.
USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report prior to the open Thursday morning. Analysts expect net sales ranged from 200,000 to 600,000 MT during the week ended Sept. 19, according to a Reuters poll. Last week, net sales of 246,327 MT were reported for the previous week, which were down 48% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: December SRW wheat ended the session above initial resistance at $5.86 1/2 as support at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at $5.78 3/4, $5.72 and $5.61 3/4 curbed selling. Initial resistance will now serve at $5.94 3/4, which is backed by the Sept. 13 high of $5.98 3/4 and psychological resistance at $6.00. From there, the 100- and 200-day moving averages of $6.10 3/4 and $6.17 3/4 will serve up notable resistance.
December HRW wheat futures ended the session above both the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $5.77 1/2 and $5.78 1/4, ultimately forging a high-range close. Initial resistance will now stand at $5.90 1/2, which is backed by $5.96 1/2 and the Sept. 13 high of $6.04 1/4. From there additional resistance stands at the 100- and 200-day moving averages, currently trading at $6.26 1/2 and $6.28 1/2, respectively. Conversely, initial support will now serve at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, then at $5.65, $5.59, $5.49 1/4 and the August low of $5.27 1/4.
What to do: You should have claimed profits on the 2024-crop hedges in July SRW futures. Wait on a corrective rebound to increase sales.
Hedgers: You should be 60% sold on 2024-crop in the cash market. You should also have 10% of anticipated 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 60% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of anticipated 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 89 points to 73.20 cents and near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw some profit-taking pressure today, following recent gains. Bearish “outside-market” forces on this day—a rally in the U.S. dollar index and solidly lower crude oil prices—also prompted some selling in cotton futures.
Cotton market traders are closely eyeing a major hurricane bearing down on the Southeast, especially Georgia. World Weather Inc. today said there are concerns about possible U.S. cotton production cuts “because of the soon-to-arrive Hurricane Helene that has been putting a premium into to the market recently and that process may continue as concern builds over the fate of Georgia, southeastern Alabama and a part of the Florida crop. Cotton in the Delta may experience some additional rain to maintain a lower fiber quality situation.” Meantime, the forecaster said West Texas will be dry and warm for a while which may be good for late season boll development, although some timely rain might be welcome soon.
Cotton traders also await Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, especially to gauge Chinese demand for the U.S. fiber.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 74.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 74.55 cents. First support is seen at 72.50 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold on 2023-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2024-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2023-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2024-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.