Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 11 1/2 cents to $4.69 1/2, near the session low and hit a six-week low. For the week, May corn lost 35 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bearish weekly and monthly low close in May corn futures sets the stage for follow-through chart-based selling pressure from the speculators early next week. However, the corn market is now well oversold on a short-term technical basis and a corrective bounce early next week would also not be surprising. New U.S. trade tariffs against Mexico and Canada, and possibly against China, are set to go into effect next week and grain traders will be closely monitoring that situation. But right now the matter is a bearish weight on the U.S. grain markets, including the keener risk aversion presently being exhibited by the general marketplace that is also a negative for risk assets like grain futures.
30-day outlook: Veteran commodity market traders know that as go crude oil prices, so likely go other commodity futures market prices. Crude oil is the leader of the raw commodity sector. Nymex futures prices are presently trending down and this week hit a nine-week low. Lower oil prices are a bearish “outside market” force presently working against the corn market bulls. Crude oil prices will very likely have to stabilize and even start to trend up in the coming weeks before the grain markets can begin to do the same. The late-March USDA U.S. planted acreage updates and quarterly grain stocks data may or may not provide the grain bulls with some positive news. Those reports are among the most important USDA data points of the year for grain futures.
World Weather Inc. today said Brazil’s weather “will remain dry-biased for central and northern Minas Gerais into Bahia and some drying is also expected for a while in the interior southern parts of the nation along with Paraguay. Most other areas will get some rain periodically and enough will fall in Mato Grosso to slow fieldwork raising some concern over late-season Safrinha corn planting. The bulk of Safrinha crops should be planted in a timely enough manner to have a fair chance of yielding relatively well, but the late crop could be faced with some lower yields if the rainy season ends normally,” said World Weather.
90-day outlook: This week’s USDA weekly export sales data showed U.S. corn sales for the week ended Feb. 20 at 794,700 MT, which were well short of market expectations. Sales were down 45% from the previous week and off 47% from the four-week average. U.S. corn sales abroad are going to have to improve in the coming months for the corn futures market to sustain price advances. The presently down-trending U.S. dollar index, if it continues to do so, will have a positive impact on better U.S. corn export sales in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 11 1/2 cents to $10.25 3/4, and lost 21 1/2 cents on the week. May soymeal was unchanged at $300.20, but marked a weekly loss of $3.70. May soyoil slid 123 points and marked a 322-point week-over-week loss.
5-day outlook: Soybeans faced selling pressure to end the week as technical resistance crimped buyer interest in addition to risk off sentiments ahead of possible tariffs on March 4. While Mexico and Canada have taken actions to avoid U.S. tariffs, China took a stiffer stance, accusing the U.S. of fentanyl ‘blackmail” after the latest tariff threat. The marketplace will be generally focused on if and how negotiations progress early next week, with a risk off tone likely to extend ahead of Trump’s application of tariffs, which is expected to occur on March 4.
Recent selling pressure has spurred some export interest in soyoil, with USDA reporting a daily sale of 20,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25. The daily sale was the first since Dec. 30.
30-day outlook: USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum kicked off this week with initial projections for the 2025-26 crop. The government’s initial soybean acreage, based on the February WASDE Report, stood at 84.0 million acres, down 3.1 million from year-ago, with production of 4.370 billion bushels using a trendline yield of 52.5 bu. per acre. Ultimately, USDA noted projections of rising demand for oilseeds, meal and oil in 2025-26 due to ample supplies.
At the end of the month, however, USDA will release its annual Prospective Plantings Report, which will feature survey-based data. Historically, compared to USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum projections, in absolute value, the average difference in acreage for the past ten years is 1.21 million acres. The largest difference was in 2022 and a matter of timing as the Forum released projections ahead of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
90-day outlook: Weather and trade will be the longer-term focus as producers across the U.S. wind down planting efforts and advance through the growing season. Mother nature will certainly drive the fate of planted acreage and thus supply, though any escalating trade riffs with China or, conversely, growing trade relations with other countries will set an underlying tone across the soy complex. Moreover, a large Brazilian crop could crimp U.S. export business, though some crop quality concerns could also increase interest in U.S. shipments. In addition, the direction of the U.S. dollar will likely impact exports, with lingering inflation likely to underpin the greenback for the foreseeable future.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat futures fell 6 3/4 cents to $5.55 3/4, near the daily low and hit a four-week low. For the week, May SRW lost 48 1/4 cents. May HRW wheat futures also hit a four-week low today, closing down 12 1/4 cents to $5.73, near the session low and on the week down 48 3/4 cents. May HRS futures fell 7 cents to $5.97 3/4, and sunk 48 3/4 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets had a dreadful week, including technically bearish weekly and monthly low closes on Friday that will invite follow-through technical selling interest from the speculative bears early next week. However, SRW and HRW markets are now well oversold and due for upside price corrections very soon. Wheat traders will be keeping one eye on the corn and soybean futures markets next week, along with how they react to new U.S. trade tariffs that as of now are set to take effect next week.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat “is losing winter hardiness this week due to unusually warm temperatures. Some greening may occur in the southern states from Texas to the southeastern states by this time next week.” There will be no threatening cold for the next 10 days and snow cover will be minimal in key production areas. Rain is still needed in the central and southwestern Plains. Meanwhile, winter wheat crops in southwestern Europe are likely greening up and spring planting should be under way in part of the Iberian Peninsula. Most other areas in Europe are still too cold for development, although warming will reduce winter hardiness. Russia has not encountered any winterkill so far this year and temperatures are expected to trend warmer. Greater soil moisture is still needed from eastern Ukraine into western Kazakhstan.
30-day outlook: The U.S. stock market has been wobbly since mid-January. That along with the disruptive nature of the Trump administration’s trade and other policies have put risk aversion back into the general marketplace. This scenario is bearish for the wheat markets, as grain futures are considered to be risk assets, too. If the U.S. stock and financial markets remain unsettled in the coming weeks, the path of least resistance for wheat futures prices will likely remain sideways to lower. The late-March U.S. planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks updates will be the next major data points for wheat traders to digest.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday morning reported disappointing U.S. wheat export sales of 269,000 MT for 2024-25, down 50% from the previous week and down 46% from the four-week average. Sales were below market expectations. A continued downtrending U.S. dollar index may work to help make U.S. wheat more competitive on the world trade market in the coming months. Also, recent news reports that Russia will see reduced wheat exports this year may be one catalyst that helps to jumpstart better U.S. wheat sales abroad in the coming months.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton tumbled 135 points to 65.25 cents and marked a weekly loss of 209 points.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures faced pressure and edged to the lowest level since Sept. 2020 amid a general risk-off tone across the marketplace, with outside markets prompting additional selling interest. Moreover, USDA’s Agriculture Outlook Forum kicked off on Thursday with 2025-26 crop projections, which featured 10 million planted acres and production totaling 14.60 million bales at a yield of 833 lbs. per acre. This compares to the National Cotton Council’s (NCC) projection this month of 9.6 million cotton acres. But today’s price action was mostly driven by the risks of retaliatory tariffs next week if President Trump follows through with his March 4 deadline for tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Look for sideways to lower trade to persist next week.
30-day outlook: USDA’s Prospective Planting Report, due out March 31 will gain the most attention over the next month. Ample global supplies and weak export demand has caused prices for the natural fiber to dive to multi-year lows, with the marketplace seemingly satisfied with a likely drop in U.S. cotton production. If cotton acres are indeed lower, then weather will become increasingly important as the planting season progresses. World Weather Inc. maintains rain will be needed during the balance of winter and early spring in the southwestern desert region, southern California and both South and West Texas to ensure favorable soil moisture for spring planting. A few areas in the southeastern U.S. are still drier than usual and need rain as well.
90-day outlook: Low cotton prices have futilely sought to lure interest in U.S. supplies, with a compounding burden stemming from U.S. dollar strength, ample global stocks and turbulent economic conditions throughout much of the world. However, at some point, the tide will turn, making the natural fiber a bargain buy, though the timing of such an occurrence is a looming unknown. An increasing inflationary environment could transpire from additional tariffs, further reducing buyer interest, though progressing trade negotiations could certainly serve as a catalyst for such a turnaround. Look for traders to closely monitor trade relations in the coming months, as well as inflation, which will drive the direction of the U.S. dollar.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.