Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.58 3/4, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market has turned choppy and the bulls have lost the upside momentum they gained in early March. Another risk-off day in the general marketplace today, including hefty losses in the U.S. stock indexes, also kept the corn market bulls on the sidelines. Selling interest in corn was limited by the rally in winter wheat futures markets that this week hit three-week highs.
World Weather Inc. today said that in South American corn regions, drier weather in Argentina into the weekend “will be good for many areas, but not in the northeast where dryness has already been prevailing for a while, stressing many crops.” Rain is expected this weekend into next week from west to east across the nation and into some of the dry areas of Rio Grande do Sul, Uruguay and Paraguay bringing some relief from recent drying. Brazil’s center-west and center-south crop areas will continue to get and good mix of rain and sunshine favoring crop development. Dryness in Bahia and northern Minas Gerais will prevail this week before showers slowly increase after that, said World Weather. Dryness in south-central Brazil continues to be a concern for southern safrinha corn in the states of Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais despite receiving some rain last week. South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates at 123 MMT and 46 MMT, respectively.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bull and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.77 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the March low of $4.42 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.62 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $4.65 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.55 1/4 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $10.12 3/4, while May soymeal closed down $4.40 to $299.90, each ending near session lows. May soyoil rose 44 points to 42.54 cents, marking a more than one-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans held an inside range as pressure from soymeal offset support from soyoil, while a returning risk-off tone increased across the marketplace as the session progressed. Soyoil ratcheted higher in the wake of news that Indonesia is set to increase its palm oil levy to between 4.5% and 10% of the crude palm oil reference price, up from 3% to 7.5%, to support a mandated increase in biodiesel use, according to Reuters, who cited a plantation fund official. This year, the biodiesel mix requirement increased to 40% from 35%, with a potential rise to 50% in 2026. Meanwhile, escalating trade tensions continue to hover over prices, though President Trump has noted that Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Washington in the “not too distant future” but did not specify a date. Despite heightened tension between the U.S./China, Trump has exposed interest in forging a new trade deal.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates at 170 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively. He reported harvest in central Brazil will be winding down soon, noting the final soybean production will be determined by the yields in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and the eastern states of Bahia and Minas Gerais. Harvest in Rio Grande do Sul is only 5% complete and yields continue to disappoint, while late planted soybeans in Minas Gerais and Bahia are being impacted by dry weather. As a result, Cordonnier noted there is a possibility the soybean estimate may be lowered by a few million tons in the future.
Technical analysis: May soybeans pivoted around the 10-day moving average of $10.14 1/2 and ultimately held a close below the level, amid pressure from the 20- and 100-day moving averages, trading around $10.26 1/4 and $10.28. Initial support will now serve at $10.09 3/4 as bears continue to look to close prices below the March low of $9.91, while bulls need to breach resistance at $10.65.
May meal futures extended Monday’s weakness, ending the session below the 20- and 10-day moving averages and below psychological support at $300.00. Initial support will now serve at $298.30 then at the March 4 low of $291.30. Conversely, initial resistance will now stand at today’s failed support levels, then at the 100- and 40-day moving averages of $306.20 and $306.90.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW futures closed 3 1/2 cents lower to $5.65, nearer session lows. May HRW futures inched 3/4 cents higher to $6.06 1/4. May HRS wheat closed down a penny to $6.14.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures built on Monday’s strength early in the session, though heavy selling pressure across the general marketplace weighed heavily on prices as the day went on. After trading firmer early in the session, equity futures underwent heavy selling pressure later in the day. Trade tensions continue to weigh on the overall marketplace, as well as heightening tension in the Middle East. Pessimism across the market led to continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Which is now trading near last week’s six-month low. Generally a weaker dollar is bullish commodities, but concerns that trade barriers will limit U.S. exports and world growth have traders covering their long positions, driving prices lower across agricultural markets.
Winter wheat futures, particularly HRW futures, were supported by deteriorating conditions in the Plains, which was noted in Monday’s crop conditions from USDA. USDA rated the Kansas wheat crop as 48% “good” to “excellent,” down four points from the previous week. Ratings in Texas and Oklahoma were steady at 28% and 46%, respectively. In Colorado, ratings fell seven points to 60% “good” to “excellent.” Dry conditions were exacerbated by recent wind and dust storms, fueling the decline in topsoil moisture. The near-term outlook calls for additional dryness and above average temperatures, continuing to weigh on crop conditions and will likely be noticed in next week’s condition reports from USDA. World Weather Inc. notes that the central Plains will continue to be impacted by extreme winds, areas of dry air, limited precip and dust storms, adding further stress to winter crops.
Technical analysis: May SRW futures stalled near yesterday’s highs before reversing lower today. Bulls continue to struggle overcoming 40-day moving average resistance at $5.69, which is firmly backed by yesterday’s high of $5.75 1/4. Support at the 20-day moving average at $5.65 1/2 limited the downside today, while continued selling looks to overcome uptrend support at $5.61.
May HRW futures continue to show relative strength to SRW futures, though closed well off session highs today. Bulls maintain the near term technical advantage and are looking to challenge resistance at $6.17 before tackling the psychological $6.25 mark. Support comes in at $6.03, the psychological $6.00 mark, then $5.95 1/2 on corrective selling.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 51 points to 66.47 cents, closing near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures extended lower amid lacking outside market help as the general marketplace leans more risk averse during the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, which began this morning and ends Wednesday afternoon. Moreover, sentiments of a looming recession continue to linger as traders closely monitor trade rhetoric and weigh potential global economic repercussions from tariffs.
World Weather Inc. notes far northern cotton areas of Argentina will continue drying for several days with crop moisture stress increasing, though significant rain is unlikely before March 22. Meanwhile, cotton in Brazil will be drying out in Bahia for several more days while rain impacts Mato Grosso and neighboring areas maintaining a favorable outlook for development. In the U.S., several growing areas of the U.S. still need rain ahead of spring planting
Technical analysis: May cotton futures ended the session with a low-range close, as the 40-day moving average, trading at 67.13 cents curbed momentum, though managed to hold above the 20- and 10-day moving averages, currently trading at 66.30 cents and 66.07 cents. Bulls will need to overcome the 40-day and secure a close above resistance at 68.59, while bears continue to look towards breaching the March 4 low of 63.24 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.