Corn
Price action: May corn rose 8 1/4 cents to $4.64, forging a mid-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures extended Wednesday’s gains, edging back above the 100-day moving average, as risk appetite returned as trade negotiations advance. President Trump reported earlier today that he will not require Mexico to pay for tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement. The agreement is until April 2nd and includes U.S. corn. Moreover, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated this “also likely applies to Canada.” See our Special Report for more information.
Ahead of the open USDA reported weekly export sales data for the week ended Feb. 27, which featured net sales of 909,100 MT. While the figure was up 15% from the previous week, it was down 32% from the four-week average. However, sales were near the upper end of analysts’ pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
While 2024 presented challenges for many producers, U.S. pork and beef exports reached $19.1 billion, bolstering the corn and soybean industries. An independent study by the Juday Group, released by the U.S. Meat Export Federation, (USMEF), highlighted that beef and pork exports contributed $2.24 billion to corn and $525 million to distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) and 1.12 billion to soybeans.
Technical analysis: March corn futures were able to score a close back above both the 100- and 200-day moving averages, currently trading at $4.56 1/2 and $4.63 1/2. A move higher will now face initial resistance at $4.66 3/4, then at $4.73 1/4, which is backed by the 10-day moving average of $4.76 3/4. Meanwhile, support will serve at today’s failed resistance levels, which are backed by support at $4.50, and this week’s low of $4.42 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybean futures surged 15 1/2 cents higher to $10.27 1/4 though closed off session highs. May meal futures climbed $5.10 to $304.90, nearer session highs. May bean oil inched 18 points higher to 43.17 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures climbed higher for the second consecutive session as fruitful tariff talks led to corrective gains across the grain and soy complex. President Trump softened his tone regarding tariff exemptions for agricultural products coming in from Canada and Mexico, citing possible exemptions for products like potash and fertilizer, though USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins told Bloomberg “everything is on the table.” While that is not inherently supportive for soybeans, the softened tone sparked strength as it is the first concrete sign of less restrictions for traditional row-crop agriculture.
USDA reported soybean export sales of 352,900 MT for the week ended Feb. 27, down 14% from the previous week and unchanged from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low-end of the pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 550,000 MT. Exports totaled 792,800 MT for the week. Soybean sales have been below the five-year average for six weeks in a row now, which has weighed heavily on the soybean market.
Technical analysis: May soybeans posted gains for the second straight session, though bears maintain the technical advantage. Gains were limited by the 10-day moving average, which will remain resistance at $10.27 3/4, while additional strength looks to overcome resistance at $10.37 1/2. Then $10.40 1/2, the 40-day moving average. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above tentative support at $10.25, which is reinforced by support at $10.11 3/4, then $10.00.
May meal futures posted robust gains today. Gains were limited by 40-day moving average resistance at $305.70, which will remain a key level here in the next few days. Strength above that mark looks to tackle resistance at $307.60, which is backed by the 100-day moving average at $310.30. Support comes in at $303.20 then the 10-day moving average at $301.20, which is quickly reinforced by the key $300.00 mark.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 5 3/4 cents to $5.54 and near mid-range. May HRW wheat gained 8 3/4 cents to $5.65 3/4, nearer the daily high. May spring wheat futures rose 6 cents to $5.94.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw modest corrective rallies and short covering today as the Trump administration appears to be showing some more flexibility on its trade tariff threats to its major trading partners, especially Mexico and Canada. A slumping U.S. dollar index that today hit a four-month low was also supportive for upside price action in wheat futures today.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales of 338,700 MT for the week ended Feb. 27, up 26% from the previous week but down 25% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said “another round of significant warming is coming to the U.S. Plains over the next several days followed by cooling in the second week of the outlook. Winter crop conditions are unlikely to change much, though there is still a need for greater precipitation in much of the region. A moist and mild spring is warranted this year so that crops can set and develop new tillers to make up for all the damage from winter cold.” Meantime, wheat crops in southwestern Europe are likely greening up and spring planting should be under way in part of the Iberian Peninsula. Most other areas in Europe are still too cold for development, although warming will reduce winter hardiness in the coming week to ten days. Rain in southwestern Europe will improve development potential for winter and spring grain.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $5.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.30. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.63 1/2 and then at $5.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.45 3/4 and then at Wednesday’s low of $5.37.
The HRW bulls next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.41 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.70 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $5.79 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.54 1/2 and then at the contract low of $5.41 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures surged 154 points to 65.21 cents though closed off session highs as technical resistance limited gains.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures surged today, building on yesterday’s gain and making up most of Tuesday’s loss. Cotton was supported by an overall risk-on tone in the agricultural marketplace today. While today’s gains were impressive, volume the past few sessions is a far cry from what it was in Tuesday’s sharp sell-off. That implies that recent gains are largely corrective in nature without any real shift in momentum. Cotton futures are likely to continue to trend lower until there is a signal that prices are “cheap enough” for either a substantial uptick in export sales or for shorts to begin covering their record short positions. USDA reported export sales of 252,400 bales for the week ended Feb. 27, up 34% from the previous week and 5% above the four-week average.
Technical analysis: May cotton futures surged on corrective strength today, though bears maintain the technical advantage. Additional strength looks to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at 65.59 cents before tackling additional resistance at 66.82 cents. Support comes in at 65.00 cents then yesterday’s close of 63.67 cents on a reversal back lower.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.