Crops Analysis | October 8, 2024

Crops Analysis

Pro Farmer's Crops Analysis
Crops Analysis | October 8, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Corn

Price action: December corn futures fell 5 1/4 cents to $4.20 3/4 and nearer the session low.

Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw spillover selling from solid losses in soybeans today, as well as outside-market pressure from sharply lower crude oil prices that were down around $3.00 a barrel at midday.

U.S. corn harvest was estimated to be 30% complete as of Sunday. The rapid harvest progress amid dry and warm weather in the Midwest is likely keeping commercial hedge pressure stronger at present.

USDA Monday afternoon rated 64% of the U.S. corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 13% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sunday. The weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect) shows the corn crop slipped 0.1 point to 365.9. Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn crop production estimate at 15.09 billion bu. on a yield of 182.5 bu. per acre, with a neutral bias going forward.

Technical Analysis: December corn futures prices scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. The corn futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of $4.34 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.25 and then at today’s high of $4.28. First support is at $4.15 and then at $4.10.

What to do: Get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.

Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.

Soybeans

Price action: November soybeans sunk 17 3/4 cents to $10.16 1/4, a more-than-two-week-low close. December meal fell $1.00 to $323.00, forging a high-range close. December soyoil plunged 148 points to 43.09 cents, marking the largest daily decline since Sept. 6.

Fundamental analysis: Soybeans succumbed to sellers for the fifth straight session, handing back nearly all the gains achieved in late September. Losses intensified today amid a notable decline in soyoil, which had recently been supported by rallying crude oil amid looming tensions in the Middle East. Sharply lower crude oil prices today helped to pressure bean oil.

A daily flash of 166,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2024-25 was largely ignored as improving moisture prospects in South America continue to weigh on the complex. World Weather Inc. maintained Brazil and Argentina will both experience needed moisture late this week, which will support early soybean plantings in the driest areas.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. harvest will continue to advance rapidly over the next two weeks as dry weather will prevail. USDA reported soybean harvest was 47% complete, a 21% advance from the previous week, while the crop was rated 63% “good” to “excellent,” down one point from a week ago, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating was unchanged at 11%. Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his soybean production estimate unchanged at 4.44 billion bu. on a yield of 51.5 bu. per acre, though Cordonnier did note soybean harvested acreage may be trimmed slightly in the October Crop Report due to potential damage from Hurricane Helene. He indicated a neutral bias going forward.

Technical Analysis: November soybeans deepened recent losses, ending the session below the 20-day moving average, currently trading at $10.30 1/2, for the first time since late August. The 40-day moving average of $10.08 3/4 will now serve as initial support and is backed by psychological support at $10.00 and the August low of $9.55. Conversely, initial resistance will now serve at the 20-day moving average, then at the 10-day, currently trading at $10.46 1/2, with solid resistance standing at the 100-day moving average of $10.68 1/2 and the Sept. 30 high of $0.69 3/4.

December meal futures tested the 40-day moving average of $320.30 but were able to end the session well of the session low. An additional test of the level could face heavier selling efforts, though support will serve at $315.00, $310.00 and $300.00, which is backed by the August low of $298.50. Meanwhile, corrective buying will face resistance at $325.50, then at the 20-, 100- and 10-day moving averages of $328.30, $330.60 and $330.90.

What to do: Get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.

Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.

Wheat

Price action: December SRW futures climbed 2 1/4 cents to $5.94 3/4 and traded on either side of unchanged throughout today’s session. December HRW futures climbed 1/2 cent to $6.03 3/4, settling near mid-range. December HRS futures rose 3/4 cent to $6.45.

Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures saw relative strength today despite falling corn and soy prices. Tensions in the Black Sea continue to underpin wheat futures as Russia scales up attacks of civilian ships carrying Ukrainian grain. A Russian missile hit a Palau-flagged vessel in Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa on Monday, killing a Ukrainian national and injuring five crew members in the second such attack in as many days, officials said. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba identified the vessel as the Optima and said it arrived in Odesa hours before the attack. The ship attacked on Sunday in the nearby port of Pivdennyi was the Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged Paresa, which had a cargo of 6,000 MT of corn. Attacks on the port of Odesa have ramped up, with Russians shelling the port recently in addition to missile strikes.

Attacks on Ukrainian grain and a drought ridden Russian crop have caught the eyes of traders, bringing attention back to the world balance sheet. We have continuously reported on the tightening world balance sheet which sees the tightest stocks-to-use among world exporters since 2007-08. While that has done little to bring major attention to U.S. exports, inspections during the month of August were above average.

U.S. planting of winter wheat continues at a rapid clip despite continued drought in winter wheat areas. USDA reported 51% of the winter wheat crop was planted and 25% emerged as of Oct. 6. More precip is needed to better establish winter crops.

Technical Analysis: Wheat futures saw relative strength today though struggled to extend gains. Bulls maintain the technical advantage in both winter wheat products. December SRW futures continue to trade near uptrend support at $5.91, which is reinforced by the 20-day moving average at $5.85 1/4. A break below that mark finds support at $5.80. Meanwhile, resistance stands at $5.98 3/4, the psychological $6.00 mark, then the for-the-move high of $6.17 1/4.

December HRW futures continue to trend higher on the daily chart. Initial support stems from $5.98 3/4, which limited losses today. Further selling finds support at yesterday’s low of $5.92. Resistance stands at $6.19 1/4, then last week’s for-the-move high of $6.23 1/2.

What to do: Get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.

Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.

Cotton

Price action: December cotton fell 126 points to 72.27 cents, marking the lowest close since Sept. 18.

Fundamental analysis: December cotton succumbed to pressure stemming from notable weakness in crude oil futures. Meanwhile, the highly anticipated economic briefing by China’s National Development and Reform Commission earlier today offered little support to commodities and prompted selloffs in the Chinese stock indexes. Over the last three weeks, China’s stock market has rallied nearly 30% amid news of an economic stimulus, though today, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index posted its largest drop since 2008.

On Monday, USDA reported the “good” to “excellent” rating for cotton declined two points to 29%, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating also declined two points, while harvest was estimated to be 26% complete as of Sunday. Harvest should continue to advance quite rapidly as World Weather Inc. maintains U.S. cotton areas will experience dry-biased weather for the next ten days.

Technical Analysis: December cotton futures ended the session below the 20-day moving average, currently trading at 72.55 cents for the first time since Sept. 10, though ended the session well off the daily low. Initial support will now serve at the 100-day moving average of 71.61 cents, which is backed by the 40-day of 70.78 cents. Corrective buying will now face initial resistance at the 20-day moving average, then at the 10-day moving average of 73.08 cents and again at 74.12 cents, 74.72 cents and 75.29 cents.

What to do: Get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You should also have 25% of expected 2024-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: You should also have 25% of expected 2024-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.