Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3/4 cent to $4.10 3/4, forging a near mid-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were seemingly caught in the crossfire of strength in crude oil, which boosted the soy complex, and wavering wheat futures. Meanwhile, strong technical resistance continues to crimp earnest buying interest in corn futures despite solid domestic and global end-user demand. This morning, USDA’s showed weekly corn sales at 2.34 MMT, which were down 35% from the previous week but up 7% from the four-week average. Top purchasers during the week included unknown destinations, Mexico and Japan. Exports during the week were reported at 788,000 MT, with primary destinations of Mexico, Colombia and Guatemala.
Late-season harvest could be stalled by an increasingly active weather pattern across the U.S., which is expected to bring moisture this week into next week. However, World Weather Inc. notes drier weather should resume Wednesday through Nov. 14, allowing harvest efforts to pick back up. In South America, most areas of Brazil and Argentina are expected to see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: December corn futures continued to face resistance at the converging 10-, 40-, 20- and 100-day moving averages layered from $4.13 1/4 to $4.15, though support at $4.10 1/4 limited selling efforts throughout the session. Bears continue to look towards the contract low of $3.85, additional support serving at $4.09, $4.07 and psychological support at $4.00. However, a move above resistance, will find bulls targeting the Oct. 2 high of $4.34 1/4, with little resistance serving above $4.15.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybean futures climbed 3 1/4 cents higher to $9.94 1/2 and settled near mid-range. December meal futures fell $2.10 to $299.50, marking the lowest close since Aug. 15. December bean oil futures surged 133 points higher to 45.14 cents; the highest close since July 12.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw tepid buying interest building on yesterday’s reversal. Soybeans continue to face headwinds on the world market. A USDA attaché estimated the Argentina soybean crop at 52.0 MMT, up 1.0 MMT from the October WASDE report. Anticipation for a large South American crop continues to provide headwinds for soybean bulls. Weather has turned largely favorable for soy plantings in both Brazil and Argentina. Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the next two weeks in central and most of northern Brazil and central and northern Paraguay inducing improvements in soil moisture and conditions for germination, establishment, and development of summer crops.
Demand for U.S. soybeans continues to prove robust ahead of next week’s election. Net export sales for the week ended Oct. 24 totaled of 2.27 MMT, up 6% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the middle of the pre-report range of expectations from 1.6 MMT to 2.8 MMT. Exports during the week totaled 2.45 MMT. USDA reported daily soymeal sales of 150,000 MT for delivery to unknown destinations during 2024-25.
Technical analysis: January soybean futures build on yesterday’s strength though remain in a downtrend as bears continue to retain the technical advantage on the daily bar chart. Resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently at $9.95 3/4, limited gains today. Continued strength finds resistance at last week’s high close of $10.02 1/2 then the 20-day moving average at $10.06 1/2. Support comes in at $9.88 1/4, yesterday’s low of $9.77 1/4 then the Aug. 14 low at $9.73 1/2.
December meal futures continue to undergo persistent selling pressure. Bears continue to hold the technical advantage and are seeking to close prices below the Aug. 14 contract low of $298.5. Additional selling finds support at $295.0. Resistance stands at $301.0 then the 10-day moving average at $307.3.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.70 1/2 but forged a high-range close, while December HRW wheat fell 6 1/2 cents to $5.69 1/4. December spring wheat futures closed down 4 3/4 cents to $6.04 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures continued to combat technical headwinds, with U.S. dollar strength coming in with the assist. Meanwhile, forecasted rains in HRW wheat production areas of the U.S. also curbed buyer interest. World Weather Inc. noted the moisture will occur this weekend, with some rain also in the forecast for mid-month, though some flooding could result in damage to a few crops in Oklahoma. The forecaster states the high Plains region of Colorado, western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska will receive the lightest precip, although those areas received rain earlier this month and should end up in favorable conditions. In Russia, rain is also expected in the country’s Southern Region, while little moisture of significance is expected in South or Western Australia. Moreover, while Russia’s dryness may have been eased recently, it comes rather late and most unirrigated crops from eastern Ukraine to Kazakhstan will enter dormancy poorly established.
USDA released its weekly Export Sales Report early this morning showed net wheat sales of 411,400 MT during the week ended Oct. 24, which were down 23% from the previous week and 14% from the four-week average. Top purchasers during the week were Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia. Exports reached a marketing year low of 244,400 MT, with shipments primarily to the Philippines, Ecuador and Nigeria.
Technical analysis: December SRW futures were limited by the 10-day moving average of $5.72 1/4, which is backed by additional resistance at the 100-, 40- and 20-day moving averages, layered from $5.78 1/2 to $5.82. However, initial support at $5.64 1/2 continued to limit selling efforts, though an extension below the area will face additional support at $5.56 and $5.48 1/4, with little support from there to the Aug. 27 low of $5.20 3/4. Conversely, a move above initial resistance will face further resistance at $5.89, $5.97 1/2, $6.00 and the 200-day moving average of $6.08 3/4, which is backed by the Oct. 2 high of $6.17 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 35 points to 69.57 cents, closing nearer session lows.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures continue to undergo persistent selling pressure despite an uptick in export sales. USDA reported export sales totaling 200,900 MT for the week ended Oct. 24, a 15% increase from the previous week and 49% increase from the four-week average. Export sales and shipments are both running well below a year ago, largely due to lackluster purchases from the world’s top exporter China. Chinese purchases of U.S. origin cotton are down 72% from what they were a year ago at this time. Cotton prices are likely to stay under pressure at least until next week’s elections results are known. Prices could then see some corrective strength as traders “sell the rumor” and “buy the fact.” Outside markets likely continue to weigh on cotton prices as well as the U.S. dollar continues to show robust strength, driven by increasing long-term interest rates.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures marked a fresh for-the-move low as bears continue to retain the near-term technical advantage. Initial support stems from today’s intraday low at 69.26 cents, which is reinforced by support at 68.55 cents. Bulls are seeking to overcome psychological 70.00 cent resistance before tackling the 10-day moving average at 70.74 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You have 15% of 2024-crop production hedged in December futures at 69.84 cents. You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.