Corn
Price action: December corn fell 4 1/2 cents to $4.10 3/4, closing nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures extended lower for the third session as strong selling in crude oil futures hovered over prices to begin the week. However, persisting export demand, evidenced by the ninth straight corn sale, which included 124,000 MT for Japan and 120,000 MT for unknown destinations during 2024-25, likely lent some support. Meanwhile, USDA reported weekly export inspections data mid-morning, which showed inspections of 823,664 MT (32.4 million bu.) during the week ended Oct. 24, which were down 177,498 from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.4 MMT but continue to run well ahead of year ago and at a solid pace, seasonally.
As harvest progresses in the U.S., planting efforts in Brazil continue to advance, with 52% of the country’s first corn crop planted as of last Thursday, which was one-point behind last year at this time, according to AgRural. USDA will update its harvest estimate in its weekly Crop Progress Report, due out this afternoon. Analysts are expecting harvest to have advanced to 80% complete as of Sunday, according to a Reuters poll, which would reflect at 15-point advance on the week, if realized.
Technical analysis: December corn futures gapped lower overnight and ultimately ended the session below the 40- and 10-day moving averages of $4.13 1/2 and $4.11. Initial support will now serve at $4.10 1/2, then at $4.06 1/4, with psychological support serving at $4.00. Conversely, initial resistance will now stand at the 10- and 40-day moving averages, which are backed by the 20- and 100-day moving averages, each currently trading at $4.16 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybean futures sunk 13 3/4 cents to $9.74 and closed on session lows. December meal futures fell $1.00 to $304.80, near mid-range. December bean oil futures plunged 146 points to 42.69 cents, near session lows.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans led weakness overnight and continued to trade lower throughout today’s session, already negating much of last week’s rally. Weakness in soyoil, spurred by sharp weakness in the crude oil market, weighed heavily on soybean prices today.
Reports of planting picking up in Brazil and beneficial rains falling over the weekend in the same have traders concerned over the outlook for U.S. soy demand. Brazil’s soybean planting reached 36% of estimated area as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, up 18 percentage points from the previous week but still behind 40% on that date last year. After a slow start, farmers in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top production state, actively planted soybeans as rains developed. Rain was common from Mato Grosso and northern, central, and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul to Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, and Sao Paulo during the weekend, says World Weather Inc. Rain is expected to impact most of Brazil over the next two weeks with center west and northern parts of center south getting rain most frequently and significantly, the forecaster says.
Demand for U.S. soybeans continues to prove robust as prices are near recent four-year lows. USDA reported weekly soybean export inspections of 2.4 MMT (87.9 million bu.) during the week ended Oct. 24, down 154,957 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations from 2.0 MMT to 2.55 MMT. Inspections historically peak around this time of the year but are still running ahead of the required pace to hit the 2024-25 USDA export forecast.
Technical analysis: November soybeans fell under selling pressure today as bears continue to hold the near-term technical advantage. Continued selling finds support at the Oct. 17 low of $9.68 1/4, which is reinforced by the Aug. 16 low of $9.55. Resistance comes in at $9.80 then the 10-day moving average at $9.90 1/2 on a reversal higher.
December meal futures saw relative strength today though still saw modest selling. Bears continue to hold the technical advantage in meal. Continued selling finds support at the psychological $300.00 mark, which is backed by support at $298.50. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $308.80, the Oct. 15 low, then the 10-day moving average at $312.70.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 10 1/4 cents to $5.58 3/4, near the session low and hit a seven-week low. December HRW wheat lost 10 1/2 cents to $5.61 1/2, near the session low and hit a five-week low. December spring wheat futures fell 10 1/4 cents to $5.95.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets featured technical selling today amid near-term downtrends firmly in place on the daily charts. A big drop in crude oil prices today and the recently strong U.S. dollar index are bearish “outside-market” elements for the wheat markets. Lower corn and soybean futures prices today also added spillover selling pressure to wheat.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections during the week ended Oct. 24 totaling 248,534 MT, down 19,941 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations. The U.S. wheat export inspection pace is still running ahead of USDA’s present forecast.
Weather in U.S. wheat country now leans a bit bearish for prices. World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. hard red winter wheat country a more-active weather pattern is expected in the next two weeks “with greater precipitation that will be beneficial for winter wheat emergence and establishment.” In the first week of the outlook, rainfall will be greatest in southeastern production areas. There is potential for notable drought relief from central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas, especially Friday through Sunday. Northwestern and far west-central parts of the region will not receive much precipitation until possibly some increase Nov. 4 – 6, said the forecaster. Meantime, in the northern U.S. Plains, one precipitation event is likely to impact the region in the first week of the outlook, which will be Tuesday. “This system is a little stronger with a little greater coverage compared to what was indicated in the forecast the previous week. Rain and a narrow band of wet snow will occur with this from around the northeastern corner of Wyoming northeast into northwestern Minnesota,” said World Weather.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show 82% of the U.S. winter wheat crop planted as of Sunday, compared to 73% last week and 84% one year ago at the same time. Winter wheat condition is expected at 43% “good” to “excellent” conditions as of Sunday, compared to 47% in the same condition one year ago.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.20 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.75 and then at last week’s high of $5.85 1/2. First support is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.40.
The HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.27 1/4. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $5.74 1/4 and then at last week’s high of $5.93 1/4. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 30 points to 70.36 cents, forging a mid-range close after trading the lowest intraday level since Sept. 13.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures extended last week’s losses to begin the week as crude oil futures faced heavy selling, though losses were limited as the natural fiber was able to rebound from the seven-week low carved early in the session. However, technical pressure continues to curb earnest buying interest, along with recent U.S. dollar strength.
USDA will update its harvest estimates in its weekly Crop Progress Report following the close. Last week, cotton harvest was estimated to be 44% complete, which represented a 10-point advance from the previous week. World Weather Inc. reports harvesting in the Delta should be complete or near complete, while that in California and Arizona will continue to advance in a favorable weather environment this week. The forecaster notes the southeastern states should be dry for at least another week to ten days. Meanwhile, In West Texas and some neighboring areas in the Texas Panhandle and southeastern Oklahoma will receive rain periodically over the next ten days disrupting maturation and harvest. The moisture may also discolor some of the cotton fiber and there is some potential for heavy rain this weekend into next week that might string some cotton out of their bolls, raising the potential for a slight production cut. Harvest in the Blacklands may also be disrupted with unharvested crops also vulnerable to some moderate to heavy rain.
Technical analysis: December cotton continues to face strong resistance at the 100-, 10, 40- and 20-day moving averages, layered from 70.98 cents to 71.97 cents, while initial support at 70.36 cents continues to curb selling interest. Additional support lies at 69.93 cents, 69.26 cents and 67.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.