Corn
Price action: December corn rose 2 1/2 cents to $4.21 1/2, marking the highest close since Oct. 7.
Fundamental analysis: Robust demand combined with technical support lifted corn futures for the fourth straight session, though gains were quite modest despite USDA’s weekly export sales data including the largest corn sale since May of 2021. Meanwhile, USDA also reported the seventh consecutive daily flash sale, which included sales of 227,600 MT to Japan and 165,000 MT to unknown destinations—both during 2024-25. Moreover, weekly sales data for the week ended Oct. 17 totaled 3.6 MMT, easily topping analysts’ pre-report range of 2.2 MMT to 3.33 MMT. Net sales were up 62% from the previous week and noticeably from the four-week average. Exports during the week were also nearly double the previous week at 999,000 MT.
Moreover, support stemming from a decline in the U.S. dollar was likely offset by extended selling in crude oil futures amid hopes of a cease-fire in the Middle East after the U.S. Secretary of State traveled to Isreal for talks.
Harvest progress in the U.S. will continue to advance as unusually dry and warm weather is expected to persist for another week, notes World Weather Inc. However, forecasts indicate weather will become more active in November and December, putting an end to the dry stretch that has been prevailing since Mid-September. In South America, there is looming concern regarding the lagging soybean planting pace, which could delay safrinha corn plantings after the ideal window, which makes the crop more susceptible to issues during pollination.
Technical analysis: December corn futures faced resistance at $4.23 1/2, though support at the 100- and 20-day moving averages, which have converged around $4.17 1/2 served up notable support. An extension above initial resistance will face an additional battle at $4.27 1/4, then at the Oct. 2 high of $4.34 1/4 and again at the 200-day moving average of $4.52 1/2. Conversely, selling efforts below the 100- and- 20-day will face additional support at the 10- and 40-day moving averages of $4.10 3/4 and $4.13.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 1 1/4 cents to $9.96 1/4 and settled nearer session lows. December meal futures sunk $4.6 to $310.4, settling on session lows. December bean oil climbed 94 points to 44.33 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans surged higher overnight but selling pressure resurfaced on this morning’s open with prices closed near session lows. Robust reports of export sales did little to continue buying interest in soybeans with prices reversing lower today. The technical posture turned more bearish today, reflecting more of the fundamental outlook. Brazil has seen planting delays, especially in Mato Grosso where planting is running at the slowest pace since 2020-21. Since the growing season is so long in Mato Grosso, the delayed planting of first crop soybeans has little effect on yield, as noted with 2020-21 boasting record soybean yield despite slow planting. The market seems to be pricing in a large Brazilian crop, which is long-term bearish for U.S. beans, and while U.S. beans have seen an uptick in export traffic recently, outstanding sales are still running well below average.
USDA reported soybean export sales of 2.15 MMT during the week ended Oct. 17, up 26% from the previous week and 47% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the top-end of the pre-report range of 1.2 MMT to 2.4 MMT. Exports during the week totaled 2.45 MMT. Export sales typically peak between mid-October and mid-November, so recent strong sales have been in line with historical norms and encouraging. Shipments typically peak around this time of the year as well, with shipments last week totaling the most since the week ended Oct. 20, 2022.
Technical analysis: November soybean futures despite trading nearly 15 cents higher this morning. Bears still hold the technical advantage and are seeking to followthrough on the bearish “shooting star” candle formation on the daily bar chart with another down day tomorrow. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $9.95 1/2, which limited the downside today. Continued selling pressure would find support at $9.91 then $9.80. The psychological $10.00 mark is initial resistance, which is reinforced by today’s high of $10.12 1/4, which coincides with the 40-day moving average.
December meal futures saw relative weakness today and remain near recent lows. Bears continue to hold the near-term advantage and are seeking to overcome support at the Oct. 15 low of $308.8 before tackling psychological $300.0 support. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $316.4, which capped gains over the past week. Additional resistance lies at $320.0.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 3 cents to $5.81 1/2. December HRW wheat gained 1 1/4 cents to $5.87. Both markets closed nearer their session highs. December spring wheat futures climbed 3 1/4 cents to $6.18 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets were mildly supported today by firmer corn prices and a lower U.S. dollar index. Still overall bearish technical continue to limit buying interest in wheat futures markets. Look for wheat markets to continue to look to the corn market for their daily price direction.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales of 532,900 MT for the week ended Oct. 17, up 6% from the previous week and up 38% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of trade expectations. Exports during the week totaled 276,500 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness “remains a concern for U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas, the U.S. Pacific Northwest in unirrigated areas, Western Australia and crop areas from eastern Ukraine into western Kazakhstan. Each of these areas has seen some rain recently, but not enough to ease long-term dryness and some concern over production potential remains.” Rain is also needed in some U.S. Midwest soft red wheat production areas. Some rain is expected, but it may be early November before that becomes significant, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of $6.17 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.84 1/4 and then at $5.95 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.65 3/4 and then at $5.50. The HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $6.23 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.60. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.92 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.77 1/4 and then at $5.70.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures sunk 98 points to 71.53 cents, settling nearer session lows.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures succumbed to technical selling pressure as December futures reversed after a test of the downward trendline stemming from the September high. Cotton prices fell today despite relatively favorable conditions, as the U.S. dollar index saw some profit-taking and trended lower throughout the session and commodities favored the upside overall. Export sales continue to improve for cotton, as USDA reported weekly sales of 174,100 bales for the week ended Oct. 17, which was up 7% from the previous week and 50% from the four-week average. Cotton sales have been running below average for most of the marketing year as outstanding sales are the worst for this time of year since 2016. While the supply side of the balance sheet has been tightening, it has been more than offset by decreasing demand, which is largely exports. The recent uptick in export sales has been a sign prices could be nearing value levels, but more confirmation is needed.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures tested downtrend resistance stemming from the September high, with bears taking advantage and following through to the downside as they maintain their technical advantage. The 40-day moving average remains a key pivot at 71.64 cents, limiting most of the losses today. Continued selling pressure finds support at 71.00 cents then last week’s low of 70.16 cents. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at 72.25 cents, the 20-day moving average then downtrend resistance at 72.45 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.