Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 7 cents to $4.16 1/2 and near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today was boosted by short-covering, perceived bargain hunting and spillover speculator buying interest from solid gains in gold (record high), silver (12-year high) and crude oil.
Corn bulls were also encouraged by recent better export demand. USDA this morning reported another daily U.S. corn sale of 359,500 MT for delivery to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year, marking the fifth straight session of corn daily sales. USDA on Monday afternoon reported the U.S. corn harvest was 65% complete as of Sunday, well ahead of the five-year average of 52%.
World Weather Inc. today said west-central and southern Argentina will get some much-needed rain Tuesday into Thursday of this week to improve summer crop-planting moisture. Brazil’s center-west and center-south crop areas will continue to receive needed moisture for the planting of first-season corn in the driest areas of center-west. Center-south Brazil planting is advancing relatively well and is accelerating in center-west crop areas.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls have gained upside momentum this week to begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of $4.34 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $3.85. First resistance is seen at $4.20 and then at $4.25. First support is at today’s low of $4.08 1/4 and then at this week’s low of $4.03.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rallied 10 3/4 cents to $9.91 3/4, closing near the session high. December soymeal fell 60 cents to $317.70. December soyoil surged 130 points to 43.69 cents, marking a close above the 100-, 10- and 20-day moving averages.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures extended Monday’s short-covering gains, with support stemming from soyoil which was ultimately lifted amid corrective strength in crude oil futures. Meanwhile, demand for U.S. soybeans continues to prove supportive, evidenced by firming gulf values as harvest reaches its final stretch, with USDA estimating soybean harvest to be 81% complete as of Sunday. The combination has profoundly narrowed the January contract’s premium to nearby futures in recent days, an unusual move amid fresh production of a 4.6 billion bu. U.S. crop. Moreover, harvest should continue to advance quickly as weather continues to prove favorable for progress throughout the Midwest, which will likely continue to affect spread-action given persisting demand.
In South America, Brazil’s center-west and center-south crop areas will continue to receive needed moisture for the planting of early soybeans in the driest areas of center-west, notes World Weather Inc. Center south planting is advancing relatively well and is accelerating in center-west crop areas. The forecaster notes this will continue despite some erratic rainfall in some areas.
Technical analysis: November soybeans tested resistance at the 10-day moving average of $9.94 1/2 for the first time since Sept. 30, though efforts to close above the level were ultimately futile. However, an extension higher on Wednesday could find increased momentum though looming resistance at the 40- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading at $10.14 3/4 and $10.20 1/2 could prove difficult for bulls, as the levels are backed by the 100-day, currently trading at $10.47. Conversely, initial support at $9.72 has held strong in recent sessions, amid backing from support at $9.63 1/4, $9.57 1/4 and the Aug. 16 low of $9.55.
December meal futures ended the session modestly lower, with support serving at the 10-day moving average of $316.30, while resistance remained at $320.10. An extension higher will face additional resistance at the 40-, 20- and 100-day moving averages, currently trading at $322.90, $325.10 and $325.30, while additional support below the 10-day will serve at $313.60, $311.70 and at the Oct 15 low of $308.80.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW futures rallied 3 3/4 cents to $5.76 and closed nearer session highs. December HRW futures climbed 4 1/4 cents to $5.86 1/2, settling nearer session highs. December spring wheat rose 2 3/4 cents to $6.16 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures lagged behind the strength seen in corn and beans today though rallied the latter half of the session. Technical selling persists in the winter wheat markets despite the technical reversals in corn and soybeans, but the fundamental outlook continues to look bullish for wheat on the global scale. The global balance sheet is tightening and forecasters are anticipating a further slowdown of production in top exporter Russia. Russia’s 2025 wheat production could decline for a third straight year, according to the first projections released by leading Black Sea consultancies IKAR and SovEcon. IKAR forecasts production in a range of 80 MMT to 85 MMT. SovEcon put its first crop projection at 80.1 MMT, which would be the smallest since 2021-22. Production was around 83 MMT this year. Russia has yet to slow down exports of wheat, though there have been discussions that exports will not be as large as previously anticipated.
USDA reported 73% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, three points behind average, while 46% had emerged. Drought persists through much of the Plains states, which has led to slower plantings as producers wait for rain and poor establishment of the winter crop. Most recent rains covered lower yielding portions of the Plains and forecast rains are unlikely to have lasting effects, says World Weather Inc. The best opportunity for needed rainfall will occur Oct. 30 to Nov. 4.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat futures saw relative weakness to start the day but rebounded into the close. Prices have potentially formed a reversal on the daily bar chart but followthrough strength is required for confirmation. December SRW bulls are looking to overcome initial resistance at $5.81 3/4 then the Oct. 17 close of $5.89 1/2. Support comes in at today’s low of $5.65 3/4, which coincides with downtrend support.
December HRW bulls are in a similar boat. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $5.87 3/4, the 40-day moving average, which capped gains today. Additional strength finds downtrend resistance at $5.98. Support lies at $5.80 then the psychological $5.75 mark.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 12 points to 72.08 cents but marked a high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures ended the session modestly lower following narrow trade as traders remained somewhat skeptical despite a second day of solid crude oil gains. However, the natural fiber has firm near-term technical support that is indicative of sideways to modestly higher trade, though the marketplace will continue to focus on demand and U.S. supply as harvest progresses throughout the country.
USDA estimated U.S. cotton harvest to be 44% complete as of Sunday, marking a ten-point advance from the previous week and was six e points ahead of the five-year average for the same period. Meanwhile, the “good” to “excellent” rating improved to 37%, up three points and the portion rated “poor” to “very poor” declined a point to 33%. Harvest should continue to advance favorably in most areas of the U.S., as World Weather Inc. maintains the Delta and southeastern states will receive a limited amount of rain during the next ten days, favoring maturation and some harvesting. Precip in West Texas and the Blacklands is also expected to remain restrictive as well.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures continued to face resistance at the 20-day moving average of 72.34 cents, while solid support served at the 10-, 40- and 100-day moving averages, each currently trading at 71.60 cents, 71.47 cents and 71.09 cents. An extension above the 20-day will face additional resistance at 72.87 cents, then at 73.53 cents, 74.54 cents and the Sept. 24 high of 74.55 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.