Corn
Price action: December corn rose 4 3/4 cents to $4.09 1/2, marking the highest close since Oct. 11.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures notched corrective gains to start the week, with the grain and soy complexes generally favoring the upside despite followthrough strength in the U.S. dollar. Export demand continues to prop up corn, with USDA reporting daily sales of 169,926 MT to Mexico, 130,000 MT to South Korea and 198,192 MT to unknown destinations—all during 2024-25. Meanwhile, weekly export inspection data was also released this morning, which showed corn inspections during the week ended Oct. 17 rising 493,195 MT from the previous week to 999,811 MT (39.4 million bu.). Net inspections were near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations from 500,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.
USDA will report weekly Crop Progress data following the close, with analysts expecting corn harvest to have advanced to 64% as of Sunday, according to a Bloomberg poll which would reflect a 17% week-over-week increase.
With the U.S. harvest seemingly in the homestretch, gulf values are firming amid strong demand, which has resulted in narrowing spreads. However, spread-action has been noteworthy since USDA’s production, supply and demand updates on Oct. 11.
Technical analysis: December corn faced resistance at the 40- and 10-day moving averages, each trading around $4.11, while initial support continued to serve at $4.02 1/2. Bears continue to hold the near-term technical advantage, with sights set on the contract low of $3.85, with interim support serving at $4.00 and again at $3.97. Meanwhile, a move above the 40- and 10-day moving averages will face additional resistance at the 20- and 100-day moving averages of $4.16 1/2 and $4.19.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans climbed 11 cents to $9.81 and settled near session highs. December meal futures rallied $2.70 to $318.30, nearer session highs. December bean oil futures firmed 57 points to 42.39 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures boasted gains throughout today’s session as bulls attempt to reverse some of the bearish momentum that has driven prices lower in three past three weeks. Soybeans led corrective strength overnight and surged higher following this morning’s open as export demand remains robust via daily export sales. USDA reported daily sales of 380,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year. Four out of the last five days have featured a daily export sale of soybeans as importers get additional sales on the books as prices have reached value levels. Still, the concerns of a large South American crop and a growing world balance sheet continue to weigh heavily on soybean futures.
Brazil received some rain over the weekend, with greatest totals coming in Goias to southern Minas Gerais. Forecasts call for erratic rain over then coming ten days, with the greatests totals coming in dry center-west and center-south areas. Brazil’s soybean planting advanced 10 percentage points to 18% as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, though that was still well behind 30% on that date last year and the slowest pace since 2020-21. Soybean planting in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul are both on the fastest planting pace since 2017-18, while Mato Grosso is running at the slowest rate since 2020-21.
USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress Report after the close. Analysts expect USDA to report the soybean crop as 82% harvested, which would be up from 67% a week ago and well above the ten-year average of 66%.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 2.434 MMT (89.4 million bu.) during the week ended Oct. 17, up 526,066 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of pre-report expectations from 1.2 MMT to 2.85 MMT. Last week’s inspections were revised over 12 million bushels higher. Historically, inspections peak around this week of the marketing year. Inspections are running ahead of the required pace to hit the current USDA export estimate.
Technical analysis: November soybean futures saw profit-taking today, though bears continue to own the technical advantage. Bulls are looking to build on today’s strength to give confidence a low could be in place. Resistance comes in at $9.88 3/4 then the 10-day moving average at $9.95 1/2. Continued strength would find resistance at the psychological $10.00 mark. Continued weakness finds support at the psychological $9.75 mark, which is backed by last Thursday’s low of $9.68 1/4.
December meal futures posted modest gains today though bears maintain control of the near-term technical edge. The 10-day moving average, currently at $318.50, has acted as formidable resistance. Strength above that mark finds resistance at last Friday’s high of $323.30. Support comes in at $315.20 then the Oct. 15 for-the-move low of $308.80.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1/2 cent to $5.72 1/4 and nearer the daily low. December HRW wheat gained 1 1/2 cents to $5.82 1/4 and nearer the session low. December spring wheat futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $6.14.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets mostly paused to start the trading week. Short-covering gains in corn and soybean futures limited the downside in wheat futures, as did higher crude oil prices. However, a stronger U.S. dollar index today was a bearish “outside-market” element for wheat futures.
World Weather Inc. today said rains in the western high Plains over the weekend and today are welcome. “A short-term boost in topsoil moisture resulted. However, the greatest rain fell in lower-yielding areas of southeastern Colorado and in livestock country of eastern New Mexico. Rain elsewhere in hard red winter wheat country started Sunday and was expected to continue today, “but the benefit will be limited.” Oct. 30 – Nov. 4 may be the next best opportunity for needed rainfall but this may be mainly in eastern production areas. Meantime, in the northern Plains conditions “will continue to be great in the next seven days for any remaining late-season fieldwork to advance.” Very little precipitation is expected and unusual warmth will occur, said the forecaster.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 268,375 MT during the week ended Oct. 17, down 111,759 MT from the previous week and short of analysts’ pre-report expectations.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA Crop Progress Report is expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop at 77% planting completed as of Sunday, compared to 64% last week and 77% last year at the same time.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat futures market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field as the bulls have faded recently. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of $6.17 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $5.95 1/2 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.70 1/4 and then at $5.64. The HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $6.23 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.60. First resistance is seen today’s high of at $5.92 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.79 1/4 and then at $5.70.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rallied 121 points to 72.20 cents, ending the session above the 100-, 40- and 10-day moving averages.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures posted solid gains to start the trading week, with support stemming from corrective buying in crude oil, while persisting strength in the U.S. dollar and a weaker tone across equities likely dampened some buyer interest. Likely lending additional support was an announcement from China overnight that indicated the country would make slightly bigger-than-expected cuts to both its one-year and five-year prime loan rates. However, Chinese authorities have failed to meet market expectations when it comes to fiscal stimulus.
In the U.S., cotton areas in the Delta and southeastern states will receive a limited amount of rain during the next 10 days, favoring crop maturation and some harvesting. West Texas rainfall during the weekend and this week is unlikely to have a big impact on crops, although some delay to fieldwork will occur briefly. The Blacklands harvest will continue swiftly as well that in the far western U.S., according to World Weather Inc.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Report following the close, which will detail conditions and harvest progress. Last week, cotton harvest was estimated to be 34% complete, while the “good” to “excellent” rating improved to 34%.
Technical analysis: December cotton ended the session above the 100-, 40- and 20-day moving averages of 71.13 cents, 71.43 cents and 71.45 cents. Initial resistance will now serve at the 20-day moving average of 72.45 cents, while support will lie at today’s failed resistance levels. A move above the 20-day will stand up against additional resistance at the Sept. 24 high of 74.55 cents, while further support lies at 70.62 cents, 70.24 cents and 69.69 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.