Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3 1/2 cents to $4.04 3/4, closing nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures edged correctively higher after a four-session losing streak as wheat futures and export demand lent some optimism at midweek. The move occurred despite no outside market help, which included a stronger U.S. dollar and a further decline in crude oil. However, an extended slide in soybeans capped buyer interest along with technical pressure.
Meanwhile, although a large purchase from Mexico around this time of year has seemingly been a routine occurrence over the past several years, USDA’s daily sales totaling 1.955 MMT certainly didn’t hurt today’s price action. Of the total, 1.623 MMT were for delivery to Mexico, 1.044 MMT for 2024-25 and 579,120 for 2024-25, while 332,000 MT were slated for delivery to unknown destinations during 2024-25. Traders will continue to closely monitor export demand and especially so amid the recent rally in the dollar.
Harvest continues to advance at a notable clip across the U.S., with USDA’s latest Crop Progress Report detailing harvest had reached 47% as of Oct. 13, a 17-point increase over the past week and 16 points ahead of the five-year average. Moreover, each of the 18 production states aside from North Carolina (equal to the five-year average) was running ahead to well ahead of the average harvest pace. World Weather Inc. notes aggressive harvesting will continue through much of the next two weeks around one round of organized rain and some showers that should not cause more than temporary interruptions to fieldwork.
USDA’s usual Thursday release of its Weekly Export Sales Report will be delayed until Friday due to the observance of Monday’s federal holiday.
Technical analysis: December corn futures held an inside range throughout today’s session, as resistance stands at Tuesday’s high of $4.08 and is backed by the 40-day moving average of $4.09 1/2, while initial support at the previous session low of $4.00 1/2 curbed the downside. Bears now hold the near-term technical advantage and continue to look to secure a close below psychological support at $4.00 and ultimately the contract low of $3.85. Conversely, bulls’ price objective is to hold a close above last week’s high of $4.15 1/4, with initial resistance continuing to serve at the 40-day moving average, then at $4.12.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 9 1/2 cents to $9.94 and closed at a 2.5-month low close. December soybean meal closed up $1.90 at $313.60. December soybean oil fell 77 points to 41.68 cents. All three markets closed nearer their session lows.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today saw mixed trade, with buying interest in soybeans squelched by bearish technicals and a firmer U.S. dollar index, as well as the recent sell off in crude oil futures. Soybean meal saw some tepid short covering.
The soybean bulls got no help today from USDA reporting a daily U.S. soybean sale of 175,000 MT to unknown destinations for the 2024-25 marketing year.
USDA Tuesday afternoon estimated the U.S. soybean harvest was 67% complete as of last Sunday. The weekly USDA export sales report is delayed by one day, to Friday morning, due to the federal holiday on Monday.
World Weather Inc. today said Brazil’s center-west and center-south soybean crop areas will continue to receive needed moisture for the planting of early soybeans in the driest areas of center-west. Center-south Brazil planting is advancing relatively well. “Sufficient rain expected over the next two weeks should get farmers into their fields for some aggressive planting progress around the precipitation,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean complex bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Soybean and meal prices are in two-week-old downtrends on the daily bar charts. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $10.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $9.73 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.12 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $10.24. First support is seen at $9.90 and then at $9.80.
Soybean meal sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $335.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $298.50. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $318.60 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $311.70 and then at this week’s low of $308.80.
The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 45.29 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 40.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 43.24 cents and then at 44.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 41.36 cents and then at 41.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 5 1/2 cents to $5.85, while December HRW wheat rose 5 3/4 cents to $5.88 3/4. December HRS futures rose 4 1/2 cents to $6.20 1/2. All three posted high-range closes
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures posted gains today, which were corrective in nature following a three-session string of declines. The move came despite a lacking assist from outside markets, which kept stronger buying interest at bay, as did looming technical pressure.
Global supply concerns continue to linger despite Russia’s Volga River Basin and the USDA-defined “Southern Region,” which is expected to receive much-needed moisture during the coming week. World Weather Inc. solidifies sentiments of looming concerns, noting the region will need much more rain in order to fix the moisture deficits, while planted acreage may remain lower than usual as well. The forecaster also reported portions of eastern Ukraine may remain too dry to support favorable late-season planting. However, in the U.S., rain is expected to bring relief to dryness in HRW wheat growing areas Friday into Monday, inducing better conditions for emergence and establishment.
Meanwhile, in France, the ag ministry kept its 2024-25 wheat export forecast outside of the EU at 4 MMT, a 61% decline from last year, but cut its forecast within the bloc by 100,000 MT to 6 MMT, 5.8% below year-ago.
Technical analysis: December SRW wheat futures held a range between the 20- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at $5.88 3/4 and $5.75. An extension above the 20-day will face additional resistance will serve at the 10- and 100-day moving averages, which have converged around $5.93, while a move below the 40-day will face further support at $5.72 1/2, $5.67 1/4 and $5.50.
Much like SRW wheat, HRW futures held a range between the 20- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at $5.90 3/4 and $5.80 1/2. A move above the 20-day will face additional resistance at the 10- and 100-day moving averages, each trading around $6.00, while a move below the 40-day will encounter further support at $5.85 1/4 and $5.69 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Advice: We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 10% of 2024-crop in the cash market to get to 35% sold.
Price action: December cotton rose 64 points to 71.26 cents and near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw some short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Modest rallies in the corn and wheat markets today were also mildly supportive for cotton.
USDA’s weekly crop progress reports Tuesday afternoon showed the U.S. cotton crop at 34% harvested as of last Sunday. The crop was at 34% very poor to poor condition. The weekly USDA export sales report is delayed by one day, to Friday morning, due to the federal holiday on Monday. Cotton bulls are hoping for an improvement in U.S. cotton sales abroad.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. cotton areas in the Delta and southeastern states will receive a limited amount of rain during the next week or so, “favoring crop maturation and some harvesting. Some rain is expected thereafter that might slow the progress, although resulting rainfall is expected to be infrequent and light.” West Texas rainfall is expected Friday into Monday morning with 0.50 to 1.50 inches and greater amounts in the northwestern Panhandle. “The rain may induce some decline in fiber quality,” said the forecaster. Cool temperatures over the next two mornings may bring a threat of soft frost to the northern Delta, Virginia and North Carolina, “but most likely temperatures will not be cold enough to cause any serious problems, although some boll lock might occur in late maturing crops,” said World Weather.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the September high of 74.55 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 72.20 cents at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 70.55 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 10% of 2024-crop in the cash market to get to 35% sold.
Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 10% of 2024-crop to get to 35% sold.