Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 7 cents to $4.01 1/4 and near the session low. Prices hit a five-week low today.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market this week is seeing accelerated technical selling pressure from the shorter-term speculative traders as the chart posture for corn has rapidly deteriorated the past few trading sessions. A big drop in crude oil prices today was a bearish outside-market element to add to the selling in corn. Steeply down-trending soybean and soybean meal futures prices are also pushing spillover selling into the corn market.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 430,323 MT during the week ended Oct. 1, down 517,640 MT from the previous week and below the pre-report range of trader expectations.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports (delayed by one day due to a federal holiday Monday) are expected to show the U.S. corn crop 44% harvested as of Sunday, compared to 30% complete last week and 45% last year at the same time. The corn crop condition is seen at 64% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday—the same as last week and compares to 53% in the same categories last year at the same time.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $3.85. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.08 and then at this week’s high of $4.15 1/4. First support is at $4.00 and then at $3.97.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell a nickel to $9.91, while December soymeal fell $3.50 to $311.80. Both marked seven-week low closes. December soyoil rose 55 points to 42.45 cents, a near mid-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures extended losses for a fourth straight session and have fallen 88 3/4 cents from the Sept. 30 high to today’s intraday low. Extended soymeal selling continues to be the pressure on the soy complex, though a bounce from session lows following sharply higher NOPA crush data late morning lent some promise that persisting oversold conditions could spur some corrective buying. However, looming technical resistance could prove rather difficult to overcome barring a catalyst, which could transpire in the form of firming demand. This morning, USDA reported a daily sale of 131,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2024-25.
NOPA members reported monthly crush of 177.32 million bushels in September, notching a record for September. Moreover, crush rose 12.2% from 158.808 million bushels in August and was up 7.2% from September 2023 crush of 165.456 million bushels, which was the previous record for the month. The crush exceeded all trade estimates and was well above the average estimate of 170.331 million bushels, based on a Reuters survey of analysts. Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of Sept. 30 dropped for a sixth straight month to 1.066 billion pounds, marking the tightest end-of-month supply since November 2014. The stocks were down 6.3% from August and 3.8% below year-ago.
USDA’s weekly export inspection data, delayed a day due to Monday’s government holiday, was supportive for soybeans, with net inspections during the week ended Oct. 10 totaling 1.575 MMT (57.9 million bu.) despite being down 49,716 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.875 MMT.
Weekly crop progress data will be released following the close today, with analysts expecting soybean harvest to have advanced to 64% complete as of October 13.
Technical analysis: November soybeans were able to end the session well off the daily low but at a seven-week low. However, this week’s price action has created serious near-term chart damage, with bears looking to take out the August low of $9.55, with interim support layered at $9.87 and $9.78 1/2. Conversely, corrective buying efforts will face initial resistance at $9.91 1/2, which is backed by psychological resistance at $10.00, with additional resistance serving at $10.04 1/2 and again at the 40-, 10- and 20-day moving averages of 10.13 1/2, $10.21 3/4 and $10.30 1/2.
December soymeal ended the session below support at $312.40 as bears continue prove their dominance. An extension lower will now face initial support at $309.50, then at $306.40 and again at the August 14 low of $298.50. Meanwhile, corrective buying will face initial resistance at $312.40, then at $315.50, $318.40 and the 40-, 10-, 20- and 100-day moving averages of $321.70, $323.00, $326.70 and $328.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW futures sunk 5 3/4 cents to $5.79 1/2 and closed nearer session lows. December HRW futures fell 7 cents to $5.83, nearer session lows. December HRS futures fell 10 1/4 cents to $6.16 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures continue to undergo selling pressure as prices closed lower for the third consecutive session. Wheat bulls are unable to shake the weakness seen in the corn and soybean market, which saw fresh for-the-move lows, though buying interest peaked up in all three markets into the close. Wheat continues to struggle garnering much bullish momentum despite a bullish world balance sheet and a recent uptick in domestic demand. France’s ag ministry trimmed its wheat crop estimate to 25.43 MMT, down 350,000 MT from last month. That’s the smallest output since 1986 as repeated heavy rains throughout the growing season reduced plantings and crop development. On the domestic front, USDA reported daily sales of 120,000 MT of SRW wheat for delivery to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year.
USDA reported export inspections of 371,004 MT (13.6 million bu.) during the week ended Oct. 10, up 7,544 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 300,000 to 550,000 MT. Inspections continue to run ahead of the required pace to hit the current USDA export forecast.
USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress Report after the close, delayed due to the holiday on Monday. Traders expect winter wheat to be 66% sowed as of Oct. 13, up from 51% a week ago and below 68% last year at this time. Continued dryness in the Plains has allowed for rapid planting but has allowed for poor establishment of the winter crop.
Technical analysis: December SRW futures continue to be dragged lower by corn and beans, settling near session lows. Bulls own a slight technical advantage, but the momentum is shifting to the bears. Initial support lies at $5.75 with further selling seeking to creep below support at $5.65 1/2. Resistance lies at $5.82 3/4, the 40-day moving average, then $5.91 3/4. December HRW futures closed up uptrend support stemming from the August low. Bulls maintain a slight overall technical advantage. Resistance comes in at $5.88 then $5.96 3/4. Continued selling finds support at $5.75 then the Sept. 27 low of $5.70 3/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 41 points to 70.62 cents, a more than one-month low close.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures continue to face technical challenges, though today’s losses were rather modest despite heavy selling in crude oil futures and a mostly subdued tone across equities. Selling in crude oil futures has largely stemmed from reports that Israel has stated it will only attack Iran’s military targets, avoiding Iran’s oil terminals to avoid a potential energy crisis. Though it is questionable that such information would be leaked to the public. Meanwhile, OPEC also lowered its global demand growth estimate for crude oil, while the International Energy Agency did the same earlier today.
World Weather Inc. reports cotton weather remains good enough around the world to limit weather related market moves. West Texas may get some rain Friday into Monday which could cause some discoloring of cotton fiber and a possible break in harvesting. The Delta will experience limited rainfall maintaining favorable crop maturation and harvest conditions, though some damage to fiber quality did result from Hurricanes Helene and Francine.
USDA this afternoon will release its weekly crop progress data, which is delayed a day due to Monday’s government holiday. Last week, the cotton crop was rated 29% “good” to “excellent” and 35% “poor” to “very poor,” while harvest was estimated to be 26% complete.
Technical analysis: December cotton was limited by the 40- and 100-day moving averages of 71.30 cents and 71.42 cents, while initial support at 70.35 cents curbed selling efforts. An extension lower will face additional support at 69.68 cents, then at 68.75 cents and the August low of 66.26 cents. Meanwhile, near-term oversold conditions could spur some corrective buying, which will continue to meet resistance at the 40- and 100-day moving averages, then at 10- and 20-day moving averages of 72.40 cents at 72.75 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should also have 25% of expected 2024-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 25% of expected 2024-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.