Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 4 1/4 cents to $4.29, nearer the session high and hit a three-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market was boosted today on technical buying from speculators as the near-term chart posture for corn has markedly improved just recently. Corn also saw support from higher crude oil prices. However, prices backed off the daily highs on keener risk aversion in the general marketplace after Iran launched a major missile attack on Israel today that sunk the U.S. stock market. Buying interest in corn could be limited the rest of this week due to the uncertainty regarding the Middle East situation and potential serious escalation of military action.
Corn prices also benefited today from reported USDA daily U.S. corn sales of 195,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024-25.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 64% “good” to “excellent,” down one point from a week ago, while the portion rated “poor” to “very poor” stood at 12%. On our weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop inched up 0.1 point to 366.1. Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn yield and production forecasts at 182.5 bu. per acre and 15.09 billion bu., respectively. He has a neutral bias going forward.
This afternoon, U.S. corn-for-ethanol use was expected to total 469.0 million bu. for August, down 4.5 million bu. (1.0%) from July but up 27.3 million bushels (6.2%) from last year.
World Weather Inc. today said good harvest weather is expected in the Midwest for the next ten days to two weeks.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.08. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.32 1/2 and then at $4.40. First support is at $4.25 and then at today’s low of $4.21 3/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1/4 cent to $10.57 1/4 and near mid-range. December soybean meal gained $5.90 to $347.50, nearer the session high and hit a 2.5-month high. December soybean oil fell 40 points to 42.91 cents, closing nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Technical buying in the soybean complex was featured early on today as the charts have turned more bullish recently. However, prices came off their daily highs and bean oil fell below unchanged amid keener risk aversion in the general marketplace as Iran launched a major ballistic missile attack on Israel today. The uncertainty of this matter could limit buying interest in the grain markets in the near term. Higher crude oil prices were a supportive outside market element for the complex today.
Also friendly for beans today, USDA reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 120,000 MT for delivery to unknown destinations for 2024-25.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 64% “good” to “excellent” and 11% “poor” to “very poor.” On Pro Farmer’s Crop Condition Index, the soybean crop improved 1.4 points to 359.9, with a 500-reading reflecting a perfect crop. Pro Farmer crop consultant Cordonnier lowered his U.S. soybean yield 0.5 bu. to 51.5 bu. per acer, noting continued dryness in the central and western Corn Belt and potential for crop damage due to Hurricane Helene. He lowered his production estimate to 4.44 billion bu. to mark his third straight weekly decline for the crop and maintained a neutral-to-lower bias.
Analysts expected USDA to show the U.S. soybean crush slowed to 167.3 million bu. in August, down 26.1 million bu. (13.5%) from July and 1.7 million bu. (1.0%) below last year.
World Weather Inc. today said there is still concern about South America weather being too dry for the soybean regions. “However, the forecast models are still trying to make it rain in Brazil during the middle to latter part of next week and that may stand in the way of any bullishness of significance.”
Technical analysis: The soybean complex bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Soybean prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the bean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is the September high of $10.69 3/4 and then at $10.86 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.45 and then at $10.31 1/4.
Soybean meal prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $370.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $325.00. First resistance comes in at $355.00 and then at $360.00. First support is seen at $345.00 and then at $340.00.
Soybean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 46.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 40.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 44.10 cents and then at the September high of 44.86 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 41.92 cents and then at 41.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rallied 15 cents to $5.99, the highest close since July 5, while December HRW rose 14 1/2 cents to $5.98 1/4. December spring wheat rose 13 cents to $6.34 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures extended gains as the session progressed amid heightened geopolitical tensions combined with looming supply uncertainties as key growing regions continue to experience subpar weather conditions.
Earlier today, Iran reportedly fired dozens of missiles into Israel, threatening a wider conflict as both Israel and the U.S. have warned there would be severe consequences if such an attack occurred.
Meanwhile, supply concerns continue to influence the complex as drought remains a serious concern from eastern Ukraine into western Kazakhstan, though World Weather Inc. notes there is time for improved for better emergence and establishment. In the U.S. drying in the Plains will be great for planting, though there is mounting concern around dryness in the region, which could lead to slow emergence and establishment. Recent rain in the Midwest, however, has improved the moisture profile in southern wheat areas for planting in October.
USDA reported 39% of the winter wheat crop was planted, one point ahead of average, while 14% had emerged.
Technical analysis: December SRW wheat broke out of the recent range of consolidation, though resistance at the 100-day moving average of $6.06 3/4 curbed a move higher. Meanwhile, initial resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading at $5.80 1/2 and $5.78 3/4 continued kept selling interest at bay. Additional support serves at the 40-day moving average of $5.64 3/4, while additional resistance stands at the 200-day moving average of $6.16 1/2.
What to do: You should have claimed profits on the 2024-crop hedges in July SRW futures. Wait on a corrective rebound to increase sales.
Hedgers: You should be 60% sold on 2024-crop in the cash market. You should also have 10% of anticipated 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 60% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of anticipated 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 52 points to 73.09 cents and nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market saw modest selling pressure today as the U.S. stock market sold off on news Iran launched a major ballistic missile attack on Israel today. The uncertainty of this major geopolitical situation and keener risk aversion may keep the cotton bulls mostly on the sidelines in coming sessions. A solid rally in the U.S. dollar index was negative for cotton futures today but was likely mostly offset by solid gains in the crude oil market.
USDA Monday afternoon reported in its weekly crop progress reports that the U.S. cotton crop was 20% harvested as of Sunday versus 17% one year ago and 16% for the five-year average. The cotton crop was rated 37% poor to very poor, 32% fair and 31% good to excellent condition. The agency said 72% of the crop has bolls opening.
World Weather Inc. today said dry weather in western Texas will prevail over the next 10 days and good drying conditions will also occur in the Texas Blacklands. Additional rain in the northern Delta during the weekend “was not welcome, but the region will now trend drier for an extended period of time. Too much rain in the southeastern U.S. hurt cotton fiber quality and an assessment on production cuts will begin this week,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 74.00 cents and then at the September high of 74.55 cents. First support is seen at 72.50 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should also have 25% of expected 2024-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 25% of expected 2024-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.