Corn
Price action: December corn rose 1 1/4 cents to $4.27 1/2, closing near the intraday high.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures notched a fresh for the move high in late overnight trade but spent much of the day session waffling around unchanged. However, decided soybean strength as the morning progressed limited selling interest, as did solid export demand. Earlier today, USDA reported weekly corn sales during the week ended Oct. 31 totaled 2.77 MMT, rising 18% from the previous week and four-week average and exceeding analysts top-end expectations of 2.5 MMT. Moreover, this marked the fourth week in a row of U.S. corn sales above 2 MMT. A daily flash sale was also reported this morning, which consisted of 120,000 MT to unknown destinations.
USDA will release its monthly production, supply and demand data Friday morning at 11 a.m. CT. Analysts are expecting modest production declines and drop in domestic ending stocks, with the average trade guess reflecting a 53 million-bu. decline from October to 1.946 billion bu. amid strong demand for U.S. corn.
Technical analysis: December corn bulls continued to grapple the bear camp to gain the near-term technical advantage, marking the highest close since Oct. 3. Today’s high will serve as initial resistance, and is backed by further resistance at $4.30 1/2, $4.34 3/4 and the 200-day moving average of $4.42 1/4. Conversely, solid support continues to serve first at $4.22 1/2, then at $4.18 and then at the 10-, 40-, 20- and 100-day moving averages layered from $4.16 1/2 to $4.12 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybean futures surged 22 1/2 cents to $10.26 1/4 and closed on session highs. December meal futures settled 10 cents higher to $298.50, near mid-range. December bean oil futures rocketed 198 points higher to 48.32 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures saw relative strength today, surging higher alongside strength in the soyoil market. Soybean export sales totaled 2.04 MMT during the week ended Oct. 31, down 10% from the previous week but up 10% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations from 1.2 MMT to 2.2 MMT. Exports during the week totaled 2.4 MMT. Soybean demand out of China remains strong, which is likely to persist into the end of the year ahead of the beginning of Trump’s second term in office. China imported 8.09 MMT of soybeans in October, down 3.28 MMT (28.8%) from September but up 2.93 MMT (56.8%) from last year. Through the first 10 months of this year, China imported 89.94 MMT of soybeans, up 11.2% from the same period last year and just 10.37 MMT shy of the record in 2020.
Soyoil sales surged above expectations and to the highest mark since 2012, which supported soyoil futures today. Traders have been actively spreading the soy complex, which has been heavy on the meal market. Soy crushing spreads continue to work higher though showed some signs of weakness yesterday. Strength in soyoil, spurred by strong exports, likely helped crush spreads rebound today.
Technical analysis: January soybean futures surged throughout the session, overcoming resistance from the Oct. 24 high, rendering the near-term technical advantage to the bulls. Bulls next objective is closing prices above the Oct. 8 low of $10.30 1/4. Strength above that mark would find little resistance until the psychological $10.50 mark. Initial support stems from the $10.18 mark, which is quickly backed by the 40-day moving average at $10.15 3/5, while sustained selling pressure would find support at $10.06.
December meal futures continue to face relative weakness, though have faced limited selling pressure below the $300.0 mark. That marks a key pivot point in the coming days. Bulls are looking to close prices above today’s high of $303.0, while additional strength would find resistance at the 20-day moving average at $307.0. Selling pressure finds support at the for-the-move low close of $295.3 then the contract low of $293.1.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.71 1/2 and near mid-range. December HRW wheat fell 5 cents to $5.69, nearer the session low. December spring wheat futures fell 3 cents to $6.02 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw more sideways and choppy trading conditions, which have been in place the past two weeks. The recent rally in the corn futures market has limited selling interest in wheat, but weaker U.S. wheat export sales data today and the ongoing rally in the U.S. dollar index kept the wheat market bulls mostly on the sidelines today.
Weather in U.S. wheat country leans price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said rain and snow expected in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas into Saturday morning “will saturate the topsoil across Colorado, Kansas and parts of Nebraska. The additional moisture in Oklahoma will not be welcome, though no serious damage is expected to crops in the region. Once this new storm is over nearly all of the wheat production areas in the Plains and many in the Midwest will have received sufficient rain for improved crop establishment.” Some additional rain may be needed in the eastern Midwest, said the forecaster.
USDA today reported U.S. wheat export sales totaled 374,700 MT during the week ended Oct. 31, down 9% from the previous week and 20% from the four-week average. Exports were a marketing-year low of 236,900 MT. Friday morning comes the monthly USDA supply and demand report, which is expected to show U.S. wheat stockpiles virtually unchanged from last month.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat futures market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, four-week-old downtrends on the daily bar charts have stalled out. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.20 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.79 1/2 and then at $5.85 1/2. First support is seen at the October low of $5.57 3/4 and then at $5.50. The HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.27 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.79 3/4 and then at $5.93 1/4. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures surged 136 points to 71.05 cents and settled near session highs.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures surged higher today, supported by heightened export sales reported this morning. December cotton futures traded to a month-and-a-half month low on Wednesday though reversed and closed well off session lows. That strength continued today with December futures closing at the highest mark in two weeks. Prices continue to trend lower on the daily bar chart but are nearing the upper end of the recent downward trend, which could re-ignite selling efforts. USDA reported export sales of 241,300 bales, a marketing year high and up 20% from the previous week and 52% from the four-week average. Cotton prices were also supported by a weaker U.S. dollar index, which negated most of yesterday’s surge higher, and strong crude oil futures which closed at the highest mark in nearly four weeks.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures saw sustained buying interest following Wednesday’s for-the-move low, though bears continue to retain the near-term technical advantage. The 40-day moving average limited buying interest today, which stands as resistance at 71.06 cents. Strength above that mark finds downtrend line resistance at 71.55 cents, which has capped all the upside since the Sept. 24 peak. Support stands at the 10-day moving average at 70.40 cents, the psychological 70.00 cent mark, then yesterday’s low of 68.95 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You have 15% of 2024-crop production hedged in December futures at 69.84 cents. You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.