Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 cents to $4.18 1/2 and nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Today marked the third straight session of modest gains in corn futures, as the bulls work to establish a near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Gains in soybean and wheat futures markets helped corn eke out a gain today, as did a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices.
Also friendly for corn futures today, USDA reported a daily U.S. corn sale of 124,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024-25. U.S. corn exports are running well above USDA’s export projections for this time of year.
USDA Monday afternoon reported the U.S. corn harvest was 91% complete as of last Sunday. That’s well ahead of the five-year average of 75% done.
World Weather Inc. today said South American corn-growing weather “has been and will likely continue to be mostly good over the next two weeks. Recent rain in southern Argentina was ideal for improving topsoil moisture, though more is needed in central and northeastern areas. Parts of center west Brazil still need greater rain, but a large portion of the region is getting enough timely rain to support planting and emergence. Greater rain is still needed in the drier areas, though.” South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier this week kept his Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 125 MMT. He also kept his Argentine estimate unchanged at 48 MMT.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls are working to establish a near-term price uptrend. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of $4.34 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $3.99. First resistance is seen at $4.24 and then at $4.28. First support is at this week’s low of $4.13 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 4 1/2 cents to $10.01 3/4, closing above the 20-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 7. December soymeal fell 10 cents to $299.50. December soyoil closed 57 points lower at 44.99 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures expanded Monday’s gains, testing resistance at the 20-day moving average for the third straight session, despite extended selling in soyoil futures. Hefty U.S. dollar weakness and crude oil strength were both supportive of the grain and soy complexes. Meanwhile, as harvest efforts, estimated to be 94% complete according to USDA, continue to wind down, the marketplace is increasing its focus on South America. Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier notes weather will remain mostly favorable throughout Brazil and Argentina, allowing for planting efforts to progress. Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian soybean production estimate at 165 MMT, noting a neutral bias going forward, but also indicated further weather improvement may advance his bias to a neutral to higher bias. He also kept his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 57 MMT, and reported rainfall in Argentina has been enough to sustain the recently planted crops, but not enough to recharge the soil moisture. However, only 3.3% of the country’s soybean crop was planted as of late last week.
However, the marketplace will likely remain relatively quiet ahead of the presidential election final results, this week’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s production, supply and demand updates from USDA. Traders are generally expecting a modest rate cut, while U.S. soybean production and ending stocks are both expected to decline from October
Technical analysis: January soybeans ended the session above the 20-day moving average, currently trading at $10.01, for the first time in a month, with bulls gaining an enhanced technical position. An extension higher will find bulls facing additional resistance at $10.05 1/2, then at $10.13 3/4, $10.19 1/2 and the 40-day moving average of $10.25. Conversely, a move lower will now find bears battling both the 20- and 10-day moving averages, which are backed by support at $9.91 1/2, $9.85 3/4 and the Oct. 30 low of $9.77 1/4.
December soymeal spent the session trading within Monday’s range, limited by resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently trading at $303.30 while initial support continues to serve at $295.50. Meanwhile, an extension above the 10-day will face further resistance at the 20-day moving average of $309.80, then at the 40- and 100-day moving averages, currently trading at $319.10 and $320.10. Conversely, a push below initial support will face resistance at last week’s low of $293.80, which is backed by support at $291.40 and $287.90.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW futures climbed 3 3/4 cents to $5.72 1/2 and settled nearer session highs. December HRW futures rallied 5 3/4 cents to $5.76 3/4, nearer session highs. December spring wheat rose 5 1/2 cents to $6.10 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat futures continue to face largely directionless trade as December SRW futures have pivoted around the $5.70 mark for eight consecutive sessions. Technical resistance continues to weigh heavily on prices, but concerns over the global balance sheet are continuing to garner attention and have become more of a focus in the past couple of weeks. U.S. winter wheat condition ratings benefited from rains last week, rising three points to 41% “good” to “excellent,” and 23% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop inched up 0.4 point to 308.3. The SRW rating improved 6.9 points, led by a 3.2-point increase in top SRW producer Illinois. Rains late in the period are likely to improve HRW ratings in next week’s report.
Wheat coming out of the Black Sea continues to dominate the world export market, but limited production could shift at least a portion of that demand as poor establishment and drought limits production prospects in both top-exporter Russia and Ukraine. Russia is set to lose 20 MMT to 22 MMT of grains from this year’s harvest due to adverse weather conditions, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut told the Vedomosti newspaper. Ukraine is not expected to receive any moisture in the coming week, notes World Weather Inc., further hindering establishment of winter crops.
Technical analysis: December SRW futures continue to contend with downtrend resistance, attempting to negate the downtrend stemming from the early October highs. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at the 40-day moving average at $5.77 1/2 to confirm a low is in place, while additional resistance lies at $5.85 1/2. Support comes in at the Oct. 31 low of $5.63 1/2 then $5.58 3/4.
December HRW futures saw relative strength today, though gains were limited by downtrend resistance stemming from the Oct. 3 high. That resistance stands at $5.78, strength above that mark comes in at $$5.82, the 40-day moving average. Bulls are seeking to hold support at the 10-day moving average at $5.75, which is reinforced by uptrend support at $5.68.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 2 points to 69.95 cents, closing nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures continued to edge sideways in consolidative trade as technical resistance continues to limit buying interest. Moreover, the marketplace is seemingly pausing in anticipation of the results of the presidential election, as well as the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting, which begins Wednesday and concludes on Thursday afternoon. On Friday, USDA will also update its production, supply and demand estimates.
In its weekly Crop Progress Report, USDA reported cotton harvest was 63% as of Nov. 3, which marked at eleven-point advance on the week. World Weather Inc. notes cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see a break in rain today into Wednesday before rain returns Thursday into Friday and likely discolor some cotton with some stringing out of cotton from the boll possible as well before an important period of mostly dry weather occurs Saturday through Nov. 19, which will allow harvesting to resume. The forecaster reports some cotton should be bleached white when drier weather returns, but permanent quality declines are likely to result while the rain induces beneficial increases in soil moisture.
Technical analysis: December cotton spent the session trading within Monday’s lower range, limited by resistance at the 10-, 100-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from 70.50 cents to 71.80 cents. Meanwhile, initial support continues to serve at 69.43 cents and is backed by support at 68.93 cents and 68.15 cents. Bears continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage, with sights set on the mid-August low of 66.26 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You have 15% of 2024-crop production hedged in December futures at 69.84 cents. You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.