Corn
Price action: December corn rose 2 cents to $4.16 1/2, marking a mid-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures favored the upside throughout the session but declined from the daily high despite rallying crude oil, a weaker U.S. dollar and additional evidence of global end-user demand. Notable corrective selling in soyoil futures was the likely source of the price retreat in both corn and soybeans, though a drop in weekly export inspections data for corn, soybeans and wheat were an aiding culprit.
USDA reported weekly corn inspections totaling 779,078 (30.7 million bu.) during the week ended Oct. 31, down 61,357 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of analyst’s pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Nevertheless, corn inspections continue to persist at a solid pace and are nearly 34% ahead of year-ago for the same period. Meanwhile, USDA reported additional daily sales this morning, which included sales of 150,000 MT to Mexico and 120,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25.
USDA will detail harvest progress in its weekly Crop Progress Report, due out following the close. A Reuters poll indicates analysts expect harvest to be 90% complete as of Sunday, which would be a nine-point advance from a week ago, if realized.
Technical analysis: Bulls and bears continue to battle on a level-playing field within the realm of December corn futures. Bulls’ next price objective is to close December prices above resistance at the October high of $4.34 1/4, while bears continue to look toward the October low of $3.99. In an advance to the upside, first resistance stands at $4.20, then at last week’s high of $4.24, while first support lies at $4.13 and again at $4.10.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybean futures climbed 3 1/2 cents to $9.97 1/4 though settled near session lows. December meal futures rebounded $4.30 to $299.60. December bean oil futures saw relative weakness, falling 74 points to 45.56 cents.
Fundamental analysis: After trading solidly higher overnight, sellers reemerged throughout today’s session, closing soybeans well off intraday highs. Trade is likely to be largely dictated by positioning as tomorrow’s election has inclined traders to maintain a wary tone as a lot of uncertainty persists. Bulls were encouraged by a daily sale of soybeans, as USDA reported sales of 132,000 MT for delivery to unknown destinations during 2024-25. Demand continues to prove quite robust, indicated by strong inspections, which totaling 2.16 MMT (79.3 million bu.) during the week ended Oct. 31, down 469,793 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations from 1.8 MMT to 2.65 MMT. Last week’s inspections were revised nearly nine million bushels higher, as has been the case the past couple of weeks. Historically, inspections top in middle to late October, so inspections slowing this week is not surprising.
After the slowest start to Brazil’s soybean planting season since 2020-21, a surge the past two weeks has now become the second fastest pace. As of last Thursday, AgRural said Brazil’s soybean planting reached 54% of planted area, up 18 percentage points for the week and three points ahead of last year. Plantings in Brazil continue at a rapid clip despite increasing rainfall, as rain fell on the driest areas from Paraguay into Mato Grosso do Sul during the weekend while rain also fell on much of the remainder of Brazil outside of some northeastern locations, according to World Weather Inc. The forecaster says regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the next two weeks in central and most of northern Brazil, improving soil moisture and conditions for establishment of summer crops.
USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress Report after the close. They are estimated to report the soybean crop as 94% harvested as of Nov. 3.
Technical analysis: January soybean futures tried and failed to break above $10.00 resistance the past two sessions. Bears continue to hold control of the near-term technical advantage. Bulls are looking to top the $10.00 mark before challenging the 20-day moving average at $10.04 1/2, which is reinforced by resistance at $10.18. Support lies at the 10-day moving average at $9.95 3/4 then $9.80 3/4.
December meal futures posted strong corrective gains today following Friday’s contract low. Bulls continue to hold full control of the technical advantage. Resistance lies at the psychological $300.0 mark, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $304.1. Support lies at Friday’s contract low of $293.8 then $290.0.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 3/4 cent to $5.68 3/4, nearer the session low. December HRW wheat rose 4 1/4 cents to $5.71, nearer the session high. December spring wheat futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $6.05.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some more tepid short covering today, with some mild buying support also coming from a two-session rally in the corn futures market. Solid gains in the crude oil market and a lower U.S. dollar index today were also positive “outside-market” elements for wheat futures.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 193,523 MT (7.1 million bu.) for the week ended Oct. 31, below pre-report expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said rain that fell in portions of U.S. hard red winter wheat country during the weekend “should lead to much-improved crop establishment.” Some flooding occurred in Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas wheat areas, although the damage was less than expected, said the forecaster. “West-central and northwestern parts of U.S. hard red winter wheat country will get some rain in the next couple of weeks to favor establishment in those areas as well.”
USDA’s weekly crop progress reports this afternoon are expected to show 41% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in “good” to “excellent” condition as of Sunday, according to a Reuters poll. That’s up from last week but the second lowest on record for this time of year. Analysts expected the U.S. winter wheat crop was 86% planted as of Sunday, which is about normal with previous years.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in four-week-old downtrends on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.20 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.75 and then at $5.85 1/2. First support is seen at the October low of $5.57 3/4 and then at $5.50. The HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.27 1/4. First resistance is seen at $5.80 and then at $5.93 1/4. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 24 points to 69.93 cents, closing nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures remained technically strapped, with price-favoring outside markets largely overlooked to begin the week. The marketplace is more subdued so far this week as traders hold off on placing bigger trades until after the U.S. presidential election on Tuesdays, though it is likely results will not be known soon after polls close. Moreover, the Federal Reserve will meet this week. The consensus is the Fed will cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points after a weaker U.S. employment report last Friday.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Report following the close, which will detail harvest progress and crop conditions. Last week, harvest was expected to be 52% complete, while the crop was rated as 33% “good” to “excellent” and 36% “poor” to “very poor,” as of Oct. 27. World Weather Inc. notes rain in West Texas during the weekend disrupted harvest and may have been great enough in some areas to induce some discoloring of the fiber. A few more random showers will be possible early this week before a more scattered shower pattern occurs later this week. The forecaster reports the additional moisture is not welcome, although it probably will not cause nearly as much concern as that of the weekend. Some parts of the Blacklands were also impacted by weekend rain and will see more this week. Meanwhile, harvesting in the Delta is winding down, but it too may be hindered by a little rainfall this week.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures continue to face resistance at the 10-, 100-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from 70.73 cents to 71.76 cents, while initial support lies at $69.25 cents and is backed by support at 68.32 cents and the September low of 67.51 cents. A move above near-term resistance will face an additional battle at 72.32 cents, 73.25 cents, then at the September high of 74.55 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You have 15% of 2024-crop production hedged in December futures at 69.84 cents. You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.