Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 5 cents to $4.28, nearer the session low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market bears have come out of hibernation recently, with chart-based selling by the speculators featured. News that President-Elect Donald Trump has laid out specific tariff plans on day one of his presidency also spooked the grain market bulls today. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was also a bearish outside market for the corn market.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop forecast at 125 MMT, with a neutral bias. He also kept his Argentina corn-production forecast at 48 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said South America corn-region weather “has been and will likely continue mostly good over the next two weeks. All areas will get rain at one time or another and sufficient moisture is expected to support crops well into the first half of December.”
Technical analysis: The corn futures bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.47 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.14. First resistance is seen at $4.30 and then at today’s high of $4.34. First support is at $4.23 1/4 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 2 1/4 cents to $9.83 1/2, while January soymeal closed $4.50 lower at $291.40, each ending near session lows. January soyoil rallied 138 points to 42.71 cents, forging a close above the 100-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans turned decidedly lower as the session progressed, in tandem with corn futures. Returned selling in soymeal weighed on the soy complex today, while short-covering in soyoil curbed heavier downside efforts. Mostly favorable weather in South America continues to be a limiting factor for the ag complex, combined with looming concerns around trade repercussions of additional tariffs from the incoming Trump administration.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier increased his Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 2 MMT to 168.0 MMT, noting a neutral to higher bias. Cordonnier reported rainfall last week favored central Brazil with lighter amounts in southern Brazil. He stated the areas that could use additional rainfall include western Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Rio Grande do Sul and parts of southwestern Sao Paulo. While there is no immediate concern, the areas will need additional rainfall in the future, and there is rain in the forecast. Dr. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 57 MMT and indicated a neutral bias going forward.
Technical analysis: January soybean futures edged sideways in consolidative trade as technical resistance at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at $9.92 1/4, $9.99 1/2 and $10.07 3/4 curbed buyer interest. Bears continue to hold onto the near-term technical advantage and continue to look towards the August low of $9.73 3/4, with first support at $9.77 and then at last week’s low of $9.75 1/4.
January meal futures ended the session below the 10-day moving average of $291.60, pressured by resistance at the 20-day moving average of $295.40. Initial support will now serve at $287.80, then at the Nov. 15 low of $287.00 and again at $283.90. Meanwhile, an extension back above the 20-day will face additional resistance at $299.70, then at $303.60 and again at the 40- and 100-day moving averages, currently trading at $305.90 and $314.00
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $5.58 though closed mid-range. March HRW futures closed 1 3/4 cents higher at $5.58 3/4 though closed nearer session lows. March spring wheat futures rose a nickel to $6.01 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures saw relative strength today, led by corrective gains, though closed well off session highs. Technical selling pressure persists in the winter wheat markets, with the path of least resistance remaining lower for this shortened, low volume week. After sinking Monday, the dollar index rebounded today, adding further headwinds for wheat market bulls. The dollar is back near two-year highs.
Some rainfall is expected in the first week of the outlook for key growing regions in Australia, supporting summer crop development, World Weather Inc. says. Australian production is seen as rebounding sharply from last year’s disappointing crop, up over 6 MMT to 32.0 MMT. Some upside is likely there if recent forecasts hold true. Australia generally exports the majority of their wheat crop, taking significant market share from the U.S., particularly in Asia.
USDA rated the winter wheat crop 55% “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor” in the final report for the fall. That is up six points week-over-week and came in three-points above the highest trade estimate. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop jumped 19.1 points to 339.3 amid notable increases in all states except Nebraska and South Dakota. The SRW CCI rating improved 8.1 points to 379.5, as all of the top seven production states increased except North Carolina. Click here for details.
Technical analysis: December SRW futures posted modest gains in a bout of corrective buying as bears retain the technical advantage. Bulls are seeking to close prices above the 10-day moving average at $5.46, which capped most gains last week. Support comes in at $5.31, which is firmly backed by the contract low of $5.20 3/4.
December HRW futures saw profit-taking today as well, though closed well off session highs. Resistance stands at $5.53, the 10-day moving average, then last week’s high close of $5.61 3/4. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $5.42 1/4 then $5.33 on resurgent selling pressure.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 4 points to 71.68 cents but managed to forge a high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: March cotton futures paused after scoring gains in the past six sessions. Technical resistances at the 100- and 40-day moving averages are limiting additional buyer interest along with resumed strength in the U.S. dollar and selling in crude oil futures.
USDA reported cotton harvest was 84% complete as of Nov. 24, a seven-point advance from the previous week and still ahead of the five-year average of 80%. Harvest in Texas was estimated to be 80% complete (73% average) and 77% in Georgia (78%). World Weather Inc. maintains late season harvest conditions across the U.S. will be relatively good, although some rain is expected in southern California over the next two days and rain will develop in the southeastern states late this week and into the weekend. Rains in the southeast, however, will miss northern Florida and southwestern Georgia as well as parts of Alabama.
Technical analysis: March cotton futures forged a high-range close after being limited by resistance at the 100- and 40-day moving averages of 72.10 cents and 72.63 cents. Meanwhile, a close was held above the 20-day moving average of 71.39 cents, which will serve up initial support. The level is backed by support at 70.99 cents, and the 10-day moving average of 70.37 cents. A move above the 100- and 40-day moving averages will face additional resistance at 73.45 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.