Corn
Price action: March corn fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.33, below the 20- and 40-day moving averages.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures faced modest pressure to begin the shortened week as spillover selling in wheat curbed buying interest despite a weaker U.S. dollar. However, USDA reported a daily sale to Mexico totaling 454,090 MT, of which 354,792 MT were for 2024-25 and 89,298 MT for 2025-26. Moreover, USDA also released its weekly export inspection data, which showed net inspections of 903,049 MT (35.6 million bu.) for the week ended Nov. 21, which were up 29,388 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of 700,000 to 950,000 MT.
Weather in South America remains mostly favorable, with most of Argentina expected to receive significant rain during the coming rain, with moderate to heavy amounts likely in dry areas. However, interior southern Brazil was dry during the weekend and will remain that way through Thursday of this week, but will begin receiving rain Thursday evening into Saturday, offering some short-term relief. Greater rain will be needed and should fall next week in the interior southern part of the nation. Eastern Bolivia, the northern half of Paraguay and a few neighboring areas in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul may not get much rain for at least ten days, according to the forecaster.
Technical analysis: March corn futures ended the session below the 20- and 40-day moving averages of $4.35 and $4.33 3/4 as bears regained technical traction. Initial support will now serve at $4.31 3/4, which is backed by $4.29 and the 100-day moving average of $4.27. Conversely, bulls will now face initial resistance at the 40- and 20-day moving averages, with additional resistance layered at $4.38, $4.40 3/4, $4.42 1/2 and the Nov. 8 high of $4.47 3/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybean futures settled 2 1/4 cents higher to $9.85 3/4 though settled nearer session lows. January meal futures climbed $4.40 to $295.90. January bean oil futures sunk 51 points to 41.33 cents and closed well off intraday lows.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw early strength overnight but struggled to maintain gains as the session went on. A sharply weaker U.S. dollar index did little to encourage buyers today. The dollar reversed lower after making a more than two-year high on Friday, led lower by lower interest rates. After trading sharply higher following Trump’s election win at the beginning of the month, rates have begun trending lower in the past week, a sign that inflation may not be as bad as previously thought. Beneficial rains over the weekend in Brazil likely weighed heavily on soy prices today as well, as conditions remain quite favorable for crop development throughout most of the country. The two-week outlook remains favorable with regular bouts of rain and thunderstorms providing enough precip to maintain or improve soil moisture.
USDA reported weekly export inspections of 2.1 MMT (77.2 million bu.) for the week ended Nov. 21, down 164,413 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of the pre-report range of 1.4 MMT to 2.4 MMT. Inspections continue to run above average as accumulated inspections for the crop year are well ahead of the historical pace needed for the current USDA export estimate. Key will be if historical inspections continue following the change in the White House.
Technical analysis: January soybean futures saw relative strength during the overnight session though faced sustained selling pressure throughout today’s session as bears retain the technical advantage. Initial resistance at $9.93, the 10-day moving average, limited gains overnight. Continued strength would find resistance at the psychological $10.00 mark. Support comes in at $9.79, which is reinforced by the contract low of $9.73 1/2.
January meal futures led strength overnight though closed well off session highs. Meal futures have traded relatively sideways for the past week and a half and closed today in the upper end of the recent range. Resistance stands at $296.9, the 20-day moving average, then the psychological $300.0 mark, which capped gains today. The 10-day moving average at $293.1 marks initial support and is backed by $289.1.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat fell 9 cents to $5.55 3/4 and nearer the daily low. March HRW wheat lost 8 1/2 cents to $5.57 and nearer the session low. March spring wheat futures fell a nickel to $5.96 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw technical selling pressure to start a Thanksgiving-holiday-shortened trading week, as the near-term charts remain firmly bearish. A weaker U.S. dollar index today provided no help to the wheat markets, as lower crude oil prices and a plunge in gold and silver prices spooked commodity market bulls.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. export inspections of 360,513 MT (13.2 million bu.) for the week ended Nov. 21. That’s up 163,770 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas “have benefited from recent weeks of rain with good root and tiller systems expected in many production areas. Cooler temperatures in the next couple of weeks will likely push most U.S. crops in the Midwest and central Plains into dormancy. Crops farther to the north are already dormant or semi-dormant,” said the forecaster.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat conditions at 51% “good” to “excellent” condition as of Sunday, which is up slightly from 49% in the same conditions last week and 50% one year ago. U.S. winter wheat planted is seen at 97% complete versus 94% last week and 100% one year ago at the same time.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Seven-week-old downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.85. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.42. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.68 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.77 1/2. First support is seen at the November low of $5.46 1/4 and then at $5.42.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.90. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.41. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.67 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.77 1/4. First support is seen at the November low of $5.45 and then at $5.41.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures rose 95 points to 71.72 cents, ending the session above the 20-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures extended last week’s gains, boosted by a corrective pullback in the U.S. dollar and strength in equities amid a generally enhanced tone across the marketplace. However, heavy pressure in crude oil futures and technical resistance at the 100-day moving average halted buying efforts.
Recent oversold conditions combined with last week’s noticeable uptick in export sales have eased selling as cotton harvest winds down in the U.S. World Weather Inc. reports late-season harvest conditions will be relatively good, although some rain is expected in southern California this week and rain will develop in the southeastern states late this week and into next weekend. The southeast rain, however, will miss northern Florida and southwestern Georgia as well as parts of southern Alabama. USDA will update harvest progress in its weekly Crop Progress Report following the close.
Technical analysis: March cotton futures ended the session above the 20-day moving average, currently trading at 71.39 cents for the first time since Nov. 8, though additional resistance at the 100- and 40-day moving averages of 72.11 cents and 72.72 cents curbed a move higher. Initial support will now serve at the 20-day moving average, then at the 10-day moving average of 70.30 cents, which is backed by support at 69.95 cents, 69.12 cents and 68.54 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.