Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3 cents to $4.30 1/4, marking the highest close since Nov. 11.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were able to shake off overnight weakness despite notable U.S. dollar strength, notching the highest intraday level in over a week. Recent export and ethanol demand have kept corn prices alive, with narrowing calendar spreads providing further insight. Earlier today, the Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production averaged 1.110 million barrels per day (bpd) down 3,000 bpd (0.3%) from the previous week’s record but 87,000 bpd (8.5%) above year-ago. Meanwhile ethanol stocks rose 524,000 barrels to 22.563 million barrels. Moreover, ethanol exports are on pace for a record year as importers seek to secure supplies amid low prices.
Some concerns of drier conditions in Argentina likely assisted in today’s strength, with World Weather Inc. reporting conditions in central Argentina as well as Sao Paulo and northern Parana, Brazil will need to be closely monitored for possible dryness in late November into early December, however, soil moisture is abundant today.
USDA will detail weekly export sales data first thing Thursday morning, with traders expecting net sales to have ranged from 1.0 MMT to 2.2 MMT during the week ended Nov. 14. Last week net sales of 1.32 MMT were reported for the previous week, which were down 53% from the week prior and the four-week average.
Technical analysis: December corn futures managed to finish the session back above the 10-day moving average of $4.27 and close right on recent resistance of $4.30 1/4. Bulls continued to grasp the technical near-term advantage and will continue to look toward 4.50, with interim resistance serving at the Nov. high of $4.34 3/4 and $4.40. Meanwhile, bears’ objective is to secure a close below the October low of $3.99, though support is layered from the 10-, 20-, 40- and 100-day moving averages, each trading at $4.27, $4.21 1/2, $4.19 1/4 and $4.11 1/4, respectively.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 8 cents to $9.90 1/2, nearer the session low. January soybean meal rose 90 cents to $291.30 and nearer the session high. January soybean oil fell 156 points to 43.36 cents, nearer the session low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures saw some mild technical selling pressure today, while soybean meal continues to languish at lower price levels. Soybean oil led losses today on heavy profit-taking pressure. A stronger U.S. dollar index today kept the soybean complex futures bulls timid. Fundamentally, worries about the new Trump presidential administration ramping up tariffs on Chinese imports continue to weigh on soy complex prices.
Soybean bulls got no help today from USDA reporting a daily U.S. soybean sale of 202,000 MT to China and 226,200 MT to unknown destinations for the 2024-25 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said South America soybean-region weather “has been and will likely continue mostly good over the next two weeks. There is going to be some concern about dry pockets in central Argentina during the coming week, but relief should occur next week to prevent a more serious bout of dryness from evolving.” Sao Paulo and northern Parana will also be left out of the greater rainfall for a while, leading to drier soil conditions in time, said the forecaster.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 1 million to 1.6 million MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of zero to 100,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are strong chart support levels that lie just below current prices. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $10.44. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $9.73 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.01 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $10.12 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $9.85 1/4 and then at $9.73 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at $310.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $275.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $294.70 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $287.00 and then at $280.00.
Soybean oil bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Prices are still in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart but just barely. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at 47.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 41.39 cents. First resistance is seen at 44.00 cents and then at today’s high of 45.12 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 43.20 cents and then at 42.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 2 3/4 cents to $5.52 1/2, the highest close since Nov. 12, while December HRW wheat rose 3 1/2 cents to $5.61 3/4. December HRS futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $5.92.
Fundamental analysis: SRW wheat futures impressively extended gains for the fourth straight session despite notable U.S. dollar strength. A risk-on tone has resurfaced following easing concerns of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine after comments from Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov which indicated the country would “do everything possible” to avoid a nuclear war.
Meanwhile, earlier today, Russian farmers reported they will sow less wheat after heavy losses this year, switching to more profitable crops such as peas, lentil or sunflowers, according to Reuters. Winter wheat plantings likely declined by 10% to the lowest since 2019, according to Rusagrotrans, Russia’s primary grain rail carrier. World Weather Inc. stated Ukraine and northern and western portions of Russia’s Southern Region may receive some needed rain this week into early next week, and while it will be welcome and of use to crops in the spring, there is not much change for serious crop improvements in the next few weeks. In the U.S., HRW and SRW wheat conditions have improved as of late amid recent rains.
USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report early Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 275,000 to 600,000 MT during the week ended Nov. 14. Last week, net sales of 380,100 MT were reported for the previous week, rising one percent from the previous week but declining seventeen percent from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: December SRW wheat futures notched a close above the 10-day moving average, currently trading at $5.51 3/4 for the first time since Nov. 8, though resistance at $5.57 1/4 curbed stronger short-covering efforts. A persisting rise from the Nov. 14 low is indicative of a near-term bottom, though additional resistance at the 20-, 100-, 40- and 100-day moving averages, layered from $5.61 1/4 to $6.03 could prove tricky for bulls. Meanwhile, initial support will now serve at the 10-day moving average, then at $5.43 3/4, $5.38 and $5.30 1/2, which is backed by the Nov. low of $5.28.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 103 points to 70.28 cents and nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw more short covering as the bears appear to have become exhausted after Tuesday’s push to a three-month low. The cotton market bulls brushed aside daily bearish outside markets that saw a solid rally in the U.S. dollar index and a drop in U.S. stock index prices.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas and the Texas Blacklands will be dry or mostly dry for the next week to 10 days. “Recent rain disrupted the harvest, induced some fiber quality decline and strung some fiber out of the bolls.” The drier weather will work to improve the situation, said the forecast. Meantime, recent rain in the Delta and the southeastern states Tuesday and today disrupted fieldwork and may have reduced fiber quality in a few areas. Most of the harvest in the Delta is complete, keeping the impact of recent rain low. Rain in Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle will delay harvesting for a while and there will be some quality decline resulting from the moisture, said World Weather.
Cotton traders will closely scrutinize Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Recent reports have shown stepped-up purchases of the U.S. fiber from Pakistan.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 74.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 67.90 cents. First resistance is seen at 71.00 cents at 72.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 69.10 cents and then at this week’s low of 68.40 cents.
What to do: Wait on an extended corrective rebound to increase cash sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.