Corn
Price action: December corn rallied 5 1/4 cents to $4.29 1/4, closing near the session high and above the 10-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were able to notch gains to begin the week, aided by a corrective rally in wheat and crude oil futures combined with U.S. dollar weakness. However, as the session progressed, pressure from the soy complex curbed buyer interest in corn, though the December contract was able to secure a close back above the 10-day moving average. Meanwhile, weak import data from China reiterated its economy is in a dire situation, with the country’s corn imports declining 30% from year ago. However, the market seemingly shook the news off as China has been a slow buyer of U.S. corn.
Around midmorning, USDA reported weekly export inspection data, which showed net corn inspections totaling 820,608 MT (32.3 million bu.) during the week ended Nov. 14, up 23,361 MT from the previous week and were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 650,000 to 900,000 MT.
In South America, central Argentina missed weekend rains as expected and will remain dry for the next full week, though relief is expected next week. World Weather Inc. reports Brazil is expected to see a good mix of rain and sunshine in all of its key crop areas.
Technical analysis: December corn futures remain in an uptrend off the October low, though resistance at $4.30 has slowed buying interest, while strong support has limited downside momentum. Initial support will now serve at the 10-day moving average of $4.26, with backing from support at $4.22, then the 20-, 40- and 100-day moving averages of $4.20 1/2, $4.18 1/2 and $4.11. Conversely, a move above resistance $4.30 will face a further battle at $4.35 and the 200-day moving average of $4.40 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybean futures surged 11 1/4 cents to $10.09 3/4, closing on session highs. December meal futures climbed 70 cents to $290.30. December bean oil futures were supported by surging crude oil futures, closing 17 points higher to 45.52 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures struggled to overcome initial technical resistance, rejecting off 10-day moving average resistance several times in today’s session. Bulls were encouraged to see prices bounce from overnight weakness, though today’s price action gives little insight into how prices might react the rest of this week. Daily sales of soybeans, meal and bean oil were supportive this morning, the rare trifecta of daily sales for each product. USDA reported daily sales of 261,264 MT of soybeans to Mexico, 30,000 MT of soyoil to India and 135,000 MT of soymeal to the Philippines – each for 2024-25. India is a large importer of soyoil—though has not bought any bean oil from the U.S for the past couple of years. India’s return to the U.S. market could be rather supportive for soyoil exports as production continues to ramp up from record crushings.
Planting continues at a rapid clip in Brazil, with plantings advancing to 80% complete as of Last Thursday, according to AgRural. That’s up from 67% last week and 68% a year ago at that time. Rain fell over the weekend from eastern Mato Grosso to Goias, western into central and southern Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo while many other areas were dry, says World Weather Inc. Regular showers are expected over the next two weeks in norther Brazil, while central and southern Brazil are expected to be more dry, though current soil moisture should keep conditions from becoming too dry, the forecaster says.
Technical analysis: January soybean futures surged higher today, though bears retain the near-term technical edge. Buyers remain quite active when prices are below $10.00, solidly support by last week’s low of $9.86 1/4. Resistance stands at $10.14, the 40-day moving average, then the Nov. 8 for-the-move high close at $10.30 1/4.
December meal futures posted corrective gains for the second consecutive session as bulls maintain the technical advantage. Continued strength finds resistance at the 10-day moving average at $293.6 then $295.3, while a resurgence of selling pressure finds initial support at $287.0, which is backed by the contract low of $285.3.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 10 3/4 cents to $5.47 1/4. December HRW wheat rose 15 1/4 cents to $5.55 1/4. Both markets closed nearer their session highs. December spring wheat rose 12 3/4 cents to $5.85.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering after prices last week hit 2.5-month lows. The weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices today were supportive outside-market forces. Wheat futures were also supported by news President Biden will now allow Ukraine to use U.S. long-range missiles against Russia.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 196,281 MT during the week ended Nov. 14, down 157,126 MT from the previous week and short of pre-report expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW regions will see “a significant rain event continue today as a strong area of low pressure moves by. The additional rain today will help further ensure favorable soil moisture for winter wheat use in the spring.” There are stronger indications of cold air intrusion in the second week of the outlook that will raise the potential for an accumulating snow event or two, said the forecaster. Meantime, in the northern Plains, rain will occur in the eastern half of the region late today into Tuesday. This will change to snow on Tuesday. Another snow event will occur Saturday into Sunday from Montana and southern Alberta, Canada into Minnesota.
USDA this afternoon in its weekly crop progress reports is expected to rate 46% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in “good” to “excellent” conditions as of Sunday. That would be up from 44% the previous week, according to a Reuters survey. Analysts expected planting of the U.S. winter wheat crop at 95% complete, up from 91% a week earlier.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Six-week-old downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.20 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.53 3/4 and then at $5.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.36 3/4 and then at the November low of $5.28. HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.85. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.27 1/4. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.41 1/2 and then at $5.27 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 18 points to 66.62 cents, hit a three-month low and closed nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Nearby cotton futures extended Friday’s weakness to a fresh near-term low despite notable outside market support. Technical resistance and weak fundamentals continue to plague the natural fiber as deflationary conditions persist in China, the top cotton importer. However, general strength across the ag complex likely limited more earnest selling efforts in cotton, combined with technically oversold conditions.
World Weather Inc. reports another wave of rain will occur in West Texas today and linger into Monday, bolstering soil moisture and also degrading some of the remaining cotton fiber. Frost and freeze conditions may follow the event during mid-week in portions of West Texas and a part of the Blacklands as well, but quick warming should follow. The forecaster notes some rain is expected in the Blacklands tonight into Monday as well. Moreover, harvesting efforts in the Delta is winding down while it is continuing in California and Arizona where harvest conditions will remain favorable for a while longer. Recent drying in Georgia and northern Florida and South Carolina has improved late season field working conditions.
Technical analysis: December cotton edged to the lowest intraday level since the Aug. 16 low of 66.26 cents, which served up support in today’s session. However, an extension lower will face additional support at 66.18 cents, then at 65.55 cents and gain at 64.46 cents. Conversely, corrective buying efforts will be hemmed by resistance first at 67.27 cents, then at 67.90 cents and again at the 10-, 20- 100- and 40-day moving averages layered from 69.08 cents to 71.18 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You have 15% of 2024-crop production hedged in December futures at 69.84 cents. You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.