Corn
Price action: December corn fell 2 cents to $4.26 1/2, closing nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Modest selling in corn futures continued for a third straight session despite persisting U.S. dollar strength. Global end-user demand continues to underpin prices, with USDA reporting daily U.S. sales of 401,357 MT to Mexico and 290,820 MT to unknown destinations, both during 2024-25. Meanwhile, U.S. harvest has all but wrapped up, with USDA reporting harvest was 95% complete as of Nov. 10, eleven points ahead of the five-year average. The marketplace will increasingly shift its focus to South American weather as planting efforts progress in Brazil and Argentina.
AgRural reported late last week that corn plantings were 72% complete, four points behind last year. However, planting in Argentina advanced to 34% complete, according to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture, now ahead of last year’s pace of 29% and is on par with the five-year average of 35%. This is quite impressive considering plantings were nearly at a record slow pace a month ago. The catch-up in planting should put crop progress back on track, though drier days are ahead, and long-term outlooks remain gloomy. The La Niña event is forecast to last through the end of the year and may not completely dissipate by early next year, which could extend hot and dry weather in the main Pampas region, warranting attention.
Technical analysis: Selling in December corn futures was limited by support at $4.25 1/2 and the 10-day moving average of $4.22 3/4, while initial resistance stood at $4.29 1/2. Bulls continue to grasp the near-term technical advantage, though desperately need to advance and hold a close above $4.50. However, initial resistance will stand at the aforementioned levels, then at $4.34 3/4 and $4.40. Conversely, bears are looking to secure a close below $4.00, though solid support lies at the 20- and 40-day moving averages, each trading around $4.17 1/2, then at the 100-day moving average of $4.11 1/2, with psychological support serving at $4.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $10.07 3/4, near mid-range. December soybean meal fell $1.30 to $291.60, near mid-range and hit a contract low. December soybean oil fell 105 points to 45.18 cents and nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Technical selling pressure from the speculators was featured in the soy complex futures today. Lower corn and wheat futures prices today also produced spillover selling in the soy markets. A strong U.S. dollar index that hit a six-month high today continues to squelch buying interest in the grain futures markets.
There are lingering bearish worries about a Trump presidency targeting China with more tariffs that would likely prompt China to target the U.S. ag sector for retaliation.
USDA Tuesday afternoon reported the U.S. soybean harvest was 96% complete as of Nov. 10.
World Weather Inc. today said South America soybean region weather “has been and will likely continue mostly good over the next two weeks. There is going to be some concern about dry pockets in southern Brazil and Paraguay during the next couple of weeks, but no serious bout of dryness is expected. West-central Argentina may have a more notable dryness issue as time moves along and portions of Cordoba, Santiago del Estero and immediate neighboring areas should be closely monitored,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $10.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $9.73 1/2. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $10.27 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $10.44. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at $9.85.
The next upside price objective for the soybean meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $310.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $275.00. First resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of $296.90 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $289.80 and then at $285.00.
Soybean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. Prices are still in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 49.16 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 42.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 46.33 cents and then at 47.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 44.66 cents and then at 44.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 11 1/4 cents to $5.41 while December HRW wheat fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.40 3/4, both closing at the lowest levels since late August. December HRS futures fell 6 ¾ cents to $5.71.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures continue to be saddled by a surging U.S. dollar and strong technical resistance despite lingering global supply concerns. However, fresh South American supplies and improving U.S. conditions are also weighing on prices. USDA reported the U.S. winter wheat crop was 44% “good” to “excellent,” up three percentage points from last week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating fell five points to 18%. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 11.9 points to 320.2, which is now 1.3 points above year-ago. The SRW wheat crop increased 8.2 points to 371.4 but is still 4.4 points below year-ago.
However, it was reported this morning that wheat seedings in Russia will shrink to 15.4 million hectares in 2025-26, the lowest since 2018-19, according to Igor Pavensky, an expert at Russian grain carrier Rusagrotrans. Drought in key regions restricted winter wheat plantings this fall. Pavensky forecasts Russia’s total grain production for 2025-25 at around 133 MMT, including 84.5 MMT of wheat.
World Weather Inc. reported today Russia’s drought in the south along with eastern Ukraine and western Kazakhstan will continue to miss opportunities for rain. The forecaster notes recent temps have crops in the region semi-dormant and a significant period of warm weather with significant precip must occur to establish crops better, and that isn’t likely.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, traders have exported just over half of the government-agreed 16.2 MMT of wheat available for export in 2023-25, according to ag ministry data. As of Nov. 13, Ukraine’s 2024-25 wheat exports totaled 8.2 MMT.
Technical analysis: December SRW wheat futures extended to an eleven-week low, with bears securing a close below support at $5.44 1/2, while resistance served at $5.56 1/2. Extended selling efforts will find bears encountering additional support at $5.36 3/4, then at $5.24 3/4 and again at the Aug. 27 low of $5.20 3/4. Conversely, initial resistance will now serve at today’s failed support level, then at $5.56 1/2 and again at the 10-, 20- 100- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $5.69 3/4 to $5.79 1/2.
December HRW futures were able to end the session well off the daily low and just above initial support at $5.40 3/4, while resistance stood at $5.50 1/2. Extended selling efforts will face further support at $5.33 3/4, then at $5.23 1/2 and again at the Aug. 27 low of $5.27 1/4. However, corrective buying will continue to face resistance around $5.50, then at $5.56 3/4, $6.17 1/2 and then the 10-, 100-, 20- and 40-day moving averages layered from $5.63 3/4 to $5.81 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 13 points to 68.90 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a two-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: Buyer interest in cotton futures continues to be limited by bearish technicals and a strong U.S. dollar index that hit a six-month high today. Lower grain futures prices today also prompted some spillover seller interest in cotton futures. However, bulls are pointing to the fact that seasonal tendencies from December into the spring favor cotton prices moving higher.
USDA Tuesday afternoon reported 71% of the U.S. cotton crop has been harvested as of last Sunday, compared to 64% complete at the same time last year. The weekly USDA export sales report will be released one day later, Friday morning, due to the Veterans Day holiday Monday. Cotton bulls are hoping for a repeat performance from last week’s better U.S. export sales that saw new business from Pakistan and Vietnam.
World Weather Inc. today said another wave of rain coming to West Texas Sunday night into Monday “will bolster soil moisture and degrade some of the cotton fiber that has not yet been harvested. Frost and freeze conditions may follow the event during mid-week next week. Some rain is expected in the Blacklands as well.” Meantime, harvesting in the Delta is winding down while it is continuing in California and Arizona where harvest conditions will remain favorable for a while longer.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 72.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 66.26 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 71.36 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.96 cents and then at 67.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You have 15% of 2024-crop production hedged in December futures at 69.84 cents. You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.