Corn
Price action: December corn fell a penny to $4.30, marking a high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures marked losses for the first time in seven sessions, with general weakness hovering over the ag complex due to lacking outside market support. The Veterans Day holiday delayed government reports, including weekly export inspections, which will be released Tuesday morning. Moreover, reports that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to maintain restrictions on genetically modified (GM) corn planting and its use in tortillas, despite reports of a U.S. victory could have had an impact on today’s price action. However, a Politico researcher noted that Mexico’s restrictions have minimal impact on U.S. exports.
Planting efforts in Brazil continue to advance quite well, with AgRural estimating corn plantings were 72% complete as of last Thursday, four-points behind last year. World Weather Inc. reports regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the next two weeks in northern Brazil, maintaining or improving soil moisture and conditions for crop development. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will not be as wet as northern Brazil through the next week and much of the region will dry down at times, though soil moisture in place and at least some rain should ensure most crops develop favorably while fieldwork advances around the precip. Argentina is expected to see more sunshine than rain during the next two week.
Technical analysis: Bulls continue to grasp the near-term technical advantage in December corn futures. The camp’s next objective is to close December futures above resistance at $4.50, while bears continue to look toward breaching $4.00. However, in order to grind higher, bulls will need to capture a close above initial resistance at $4.34 3/4 and the 200-day moving average of $4.42, while bears will have to overcome support at the 10-, 20-, 40- and 100-day moving averages layered from $4.20 to $4.11 3/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybean futures fell 8 cents to $10.22 1/4 and settled nearer session lows. December meal futures sunk $1.10 to $295.10. December bean oil futures lost 63 points to 48.14 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: After showing relative strength overnight, soybeans reversed from a four-week high and closed nearer session lows today, though volume was well below that which was seen last week. Heavy selling in the crude oil market limited buyer interest in most commodities today as prices have undergone heavy selling the past two sessions. The Dollar was sharply higher today as well, trading at the highest level since July. Meal futures continue to struggle garnering any bullish momentum, which has weighed heavily on soybean prices. How prices react tomorrow when volume is likely to pick up after the holiday will be key.
Brazilian producers had planted 67% of estimated soybean area as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, up 13 percentage points for the week and six points ahead of year-ago. The firm said planting was in the final stretch in Mato Grosso and Paraná, the two largest production states. Rain increased in northeastern Brazil during the weekend inducing beneficial increases in soil moisture in the drier areas from northern Minas Gerais into Bahia while rain extended from those areas into Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso with little rain elsewhere, says World Weather Inc.
Technical analysis: January soybean futures closed lower but traded within Friday’s range. Bulls still hold a modest technical advantage. Initial resistance stands at $10.25, while reinforcement comes in at Friday’s high of $10.44. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $10.17, the 40-day moving average, then $10.08 1/2 on continued selling pressure.
December meal futures continue to languish near contract lows as bears retain the technical advantage. Additional support stems from $295.00, which is backed by the contract low of $293.10. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at the psychological $300.00 mark, which has capped gains the past three sessions.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 7 cents to $5.65 1/2, nearer the session high and hit a nine-week low early on. December HRW wheat fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.59 1/2 and nearer the daily high. December spring wheat futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.92.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat futures markets fell victim to chart-based selling pressure today as near-term price downtrends have been reaffirmed on the daily bar chart. However, the higher-range closes in prices begins to suggest the bears may now be near-term exhausted. A rally in the U.S. dollar index to a 4.5-month high and sharply lower crude oil prices were bearish daily outside-market forces for wheat futures. Weaker corn and soybean futures prices today also spilled over into selling in wheat.
The federal Veterans Day holiday today will push back weekly U.S. export inspections and U.S. crop progress reports to Tuesday.
Weather in U.S. wheat-growing regions leans price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said recent rain and snow in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas “will lead to much improved winter crop emergence and establishment. A few areas are too wet right now, but dryness in the subsoil will allow the topsoil to firm up relatively quickly.” Meantime, around the globe recent rain and snow in Russia’s southern region, eastern Ukraine and western Kazakhstan was also welcome, though much more is needed. South and western Australia will continue missing significant rain, but with most of the wheat and barley now filling and maturing the potential for changed production potential is low. Argentina’s central and southern wheat production areas received significant rain recently. Southern Brazil’s drier weather is “helping to expedite the remaining wheat harvest and this will continue for a little while longer, although a few showers are possible,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat markets bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Five-week-old downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.20 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.72 3/4 and then at $5.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.51 3/4 and then at $5.40. HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.27 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.64 1/4 and then at $5.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.47 1/4 and then at $5.40.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 129 points to 69.69 cents, closing below the 100-, 20- and 10-day moving averages.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton held an inside range to begin the week as outside-market pressure and low-volume trade weighed on the natural fiber to begin the week. Lower crude oil futures were plagued by fading supply threats and lingering disappointment around stimulus efforts in China, while the U.S. dollar surged to a more than four-month high amid speculation that T-note yields will rise due to mounting inflation stemming from pro-tariff policies.
USDA’s weekly Crop Progress Report will be delayed a day due to the observation of the Veteran’s Day holiday. However, harvest progress may have slowed a bit due to recent rains in West Texas and the Blacklands, which have increased concern over fiber quality. However, drier weather is expected in both areas this week and should improve fiber quality, or at least end the declining conditions. Meanwhile, harvest in the Delta is winding down, but it too may have been hindered by recent rain, according to the forecaster. Torrential rain in parts of Georgia and South Carolina last week resulted in some significant flooding from south-central Georgia into western and central South Carolina, damaging some unharvested cotton.
Technical analysis: December cotton ended the session below the 100- and 20- day moving averages, currently trading at 70.77 cents and 70.73 cents, as well as the 10-day moving average of 70.17 cents. Initial support will now serve at 69.43 cents, which is backed by additional support at 68.86 cents and the Sept. 9 low of 67.51 cents. Conversely, initial resistance will now serve at today’s failed support levels, then at 71.56 cents, the 40-day moving average of 71.78 cents and again at 72.13 cents and 72.91 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You have 15% of 2024-crop production hedged in December futures at 69.84 cents. You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.