Corn
Price action: March corn fell 4 1/2 cents to $4.82, closing nearer the session high after carving a more than one-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures extended Friday’s losses to begin the week, with selling in soybeans and crude oil futures spurring a corrective move in the wake of recent gains. Meanwhile, weekly export inspection data showed a decline in net inspections, with USDA reporting 1.25 MMT for the week ended Jan. 23. Inspections fell 295,325 MT from the previous week, but were within the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.4 MMT and continue to exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target by 114 million bu. Moreover, a daily sale of 139,000 MT to Mexico continued to show evidence of export demand for 2024-25.
Weather in South America is improving temporarily, which included some very important rain, which fell overnight in northwestern Buenos Aires, northeastern La Pampa and southern Santa Fe, according to World Weather Inc. Rains next week may become more widespread, though the forecaster is not convinced it will be as widespread and significant as suggested by the ECMWF and GFS models today. In Brazil, rainfall the past five days has been sporadic enough in center west crop areas to allow the soil to firm and speedier maturation rages, though rain will increase in most of Brazil Wednesday though the weekend and into early next week. AgRural reported safrinha corn plantings had reached 2.2% as of last Thursday, which was well behind last year’s pace of 11.4% for the same period, as persistent rains have delayed soybean harvest.
Technical analysis: March corn futures were able to end the session well off the intraday low and back above the 10-day moving average of $4.81 1/2, which will again serve as initial support. Today’s selling was limited by support at $4.77 1/2, which is backed by the 20-day moving average of $4.69 1/4. Meanwhile, resistance will serve initially at $4.83 1/2, with bulls maintaining focus on a close above $5.00, though interim resistance will stand at $4.90 and again at last week’s high of $4.94 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop in the cash market. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybean futures fell 10 3/4 cents to $10.45 and settled nearer session lows. March meal futures dropped $4.10 to $300.80. March bean oil slipped 22 points to 45.00 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures opened lower overnight but did not see any followthrough selling pressure during today’s session as bulls maintained key technical support to keep the near-term uptrend intact. The overall marketplace favored a risk-off tone today as stocks underwent heavy selling pressure, largely due to a drop in tech stocks due to a new, cheap AI model out of China called DeepSeek that brought questions to the value of U.S. competitors’ market value. The U.S. dollar index saw continued weakness today and made a fresh five-week low. The dollar is now trending lower which is longer-term bullish for U.S. origin commodities as they become more competitively priced on the world market. Still, the harvest, albeit slow harvest, of Brazilian supplies are going to draw demand from the U.S., particularly with top importer China.
Rainfall in Brazil has been light and sporadic in the past week, allowing for some firming of the soil, faster soybean maturation and a little boost in fieldwork in center west crop areas, says World Weather Inc. Still, AgRural lowered its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 500,000 MT to 171 MMT due to cuts in Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. The firm increased its soybean production forecast for Mato Grosso, despite the threat of crop quality concerns if rains persist into February. As of last Thursday, AgRural estimated Brazil’s soybean harvest at 3.9%, behind 10.8% on this date last year and the slowest since 2020-21.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 729,362 MT (26.8 million bu.) for the week ended Jan. 23, down 249,928 MT and short of the pre-report expectations of 800,000 MT to 1.25 MMT.
Technical analysis: March soybean futures underwent persistent selling pressure today though ended up closing well off session lows. Bulls continue to maintain the technical advantage. Support at $10.44, the 10-day moving average, limited the downside today. Below that mark, bulls are looking to keep prices above $10.30 1/2 support. Resistance stands at the psychological $10.50 mark then $10.66 3/4 on resurgent strength.
March meal futures opened lower last night and saw continued selling pressure today as prices near the lower end of the recent range. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above key support at $299.00, else a trip to the Jan. 16 low of $293.50 seems likely. Resistance stands at $304.10, the 40-day moving average, then $307.80 on strength.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 40% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop production.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 40% priced on 2024-crop production.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat fell 8 1/2 cents to $5.35 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low. March HRW wheat lost 6 1/4 cents to $5.53 1/4 and nearer the daily low. March spring wheat futures sunk 9 1/2 cents to $5.85 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets, like many other commodity futures markets today, fell victim to selling pressure from a keener “risk-off” day to start the trading week. The U.S. stock market dropped sharply, led by the tech sector. Also a negative outside market for the grains today, the crude oil market saw solid losses. Wheat markets were also bearishly impacted by lower corn and soybean futures prices.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 484,544 MT for the week ended Jan. 23, up 222,758 MT from the previous week, above pre-report expectations and the highest level since last September.
World Weather Inc. today said “assessing U.S. winter crops for possible damage will take place this spring, but for now producers and traders can only speculate about damage that may or may not have occurred this past week.” Warmer weather is now expected for a while and the focus of attention may soon turn toward precipitation in hard red winter wheat areas where it has been dry for a while, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.69 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.26. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.43 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.32 and then at $5.26. HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the January high of $5.86. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.35. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.49 1/4 and then at $5.35.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton slid 34 points to 67.27 cents, marking a low-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures held a narrow range to begin the week despite heightened volatility and risk-off selling in crude oil and equities. Demand woes continue to stem from China, as the country’s economy entered the new year on a weak note, prompting its central bank to inject record cash into its financial system this month. Moreover, the U.S. Federal Reserve meets this week, with broad expectations for interest rates to remain steady at the FOMC meeting, set to begin Tuesday and conclude Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Moreover, weather in South America continues to prove variable. World Weather Inc. reports Northern Argentine cotton areas are set to receive some timely rainfall over the coming week, supporting a mostly good cotton development environment, while fieldwork in Mato Grosso and Goias, Brazil is still behind with much fieldwork left to be completed. The forecaster noted, however, cotton is rated favorably with much of the Bahia crop and areas in Mato Grosso do Sul planted.
Technical analysis: March cotton continued to face support at 67.23 cents, which is backed by last week’s low of 66.60 cents. Bears continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage, though oversold conditions and today’s price action could be indicative that a low has been forged. However, strong technical resistance at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages of 68.56 cents, 70.80 cents and 72.01 cents will likely continue to prove difficult to overcome.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.