Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $4.86 1/2 and closed at mid-range. That marked a 1 1/4 cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures saw modest profit-taking and spent the day in the middle of this week’s range with minimal direction. Reports of Argentina cutting export taxes on agricultural products through June led to a lower opening in last night’s session, though the lack of followthrough selling today was encouraging for bulls. Prices ended the week in the middle of this week’s range as prices consolidated from the push higher that started last Friday and continued into Tuesday of this week. The corn market has had a series of higher pushes followed by consolidation for up to a week. If that pattern continues, one would expect a challenge of the psychological $5.00 mark sometime next week, which seems like the next logical step in the corn market. How prices react against that stiff resistance will be key in determining the medium-term direction. As long as prices stay above $4.80, the path of least resistance remains higher.
30-day outlook: Weather in Brazil has begun to garner more attention as wet conditions have delayed the harvesting of soybeans, and thus, the planting of safrinha corn. Second crop corn production accounts for about three-quarters of Brazilian production. Safrinha plantings have had the slowest start since 2021 due to the slow soybean harvest. If conditions remain wet, plantings could be pushed past the ideal window, which ends around Feb. 20. Given the current pace and forecast, our South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has estimated that 30% to 40% of the safrinha crop will be planted past the ideal window. If that proves to be the case, or if additional acres get pushed past the ideal window, it could support corn futures over the coming month.
90-day outlook: Demand has remained impressive, even with the recent rally. USDA reported corn export sales of 1.661 MMT for the week ended Jan. 16, up 62% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. Sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations from 700,000 MT to 1.7 MMT. Exports at 1.517 MMT were a marketing-year high. Ethanol use remains strong, though it has pulled back from the highs seen late last year. While strong use is likely to continue to drive old-crop prices higher, the attention will quickly turn to 2025 plantings in March when USDA releases their Prospective Plantings Report. Rumblings of large plantings could hamper strength seen in the corn market in the longer term.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop in the cash market. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 9 3/4 cents to $10.55 3/4, but still gained 21 3/4 cents on the week. March soymeal edged $10.40 lower to $304.90 and still managed to notch a $7.70 weekly gain. March soyoil rose 18 points to 45.22 cents but gave up 47 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Looming technical resistance combined with a corrective pullback in soymeal futures were the culprits of today’s weakness in soybean futures, though a plunging U.S. dollar to a more than one-month low was certainly a supporting factor. Also casting a shadow was Argentina’s decision to reduce ag export taxes through June, though some sources have noted the move is more of a boost for farmers than exporters.
The 200-day moving average in nearby soybean futures has served up strong resistance over the past year, with Thursday’s test only the second occurrence in the past year, making today’s weakness not all that surprising. However, selling was limited to the 10-day moving average, indicating bulls may have more in the tank in the coming days, though an extension lower in soymeal futures could kibosh those efforts. Moreover, any definitive trade decisions by the incoming administration over the next week could also spur a greater risk-off tone, though President Trump has seemingly eased up against China in recent comments, which is advantageous for an extended bull move.
30-day outlook: The marketplace is seemingly holding its breath as safrinha corn plantings in Brazil continue to gain increasing attention due to a delayed soybean harvest in much of the country. However, soybean quality concerns are becoming more of a focus amid persisting rains. Meanwhile, Argentine weather continues to prove subpar for growing crops, with South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier indicating roughly 60% of the country’s soybean crop has been impacted to some degree. Nonetheless, Cordonnier anticipates South America will have record soybean output between Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay, which if realized, will keep a lid on the soybean market barring U.S. weather hiccups as the spring planting season inches closer.
90-day outlook: The current corn-to-soybean ratio continues to favor more robust U.S. corn acres this year, though recent gains in soybean futures could have some producers on the fence. Generally eroding working capital and rather stable input prices are compounding factors that could affect final plantings, in addition to mother nature, of course. Additionally, greater-than-expected quality and crop issues in South America could alter the market dynamic, especially if President Trump is able to achieve a more positive trade relationship with China and other importing countries. USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report, due out March 31, will coincide with the release of Quarterly Grain Stocks, and give an initial look into 2025-26 crops, and further insight into Use.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 40% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop production.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 40% priced on 2024-crop production.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat futures fell 10 cents to $5.44, nearer the session low, and on the week up 5 1/4 cents. March HRW futures were down 11 1/4 cents to $5.59 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week up 11 cents. March spring wheat futures fell 9 1/4 cents to $5.95 1/4 but rose 11 3/4 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: After a promising start to the holiday-shortened trading week this week, the bulls went out with a whimper. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes set the stage for follow-through chart-based selling pressure early next week.
World Weather Inc. today said that in HRW wheat country, “conditions will be uneventful in the region through at least Tuesday. Then next Wednesday into Thursday an upper-level low pressure area cut-off from the main flow aloft will likely promote some rain and snow in the region. This precipitation is most-likely in southern production areas.” In the second week of the outlook, a cooling trend with greater snow is likely. The greater snow will be important for protection of the winter wheat crop from more winterkill, said World Weather.
30-day outlook: Corn and soybean futures are enjoying price uptrends on the daily bar charts and this week hit multi-month highs. If the corn and bean markets can hold their recent solid gains and add to them in the coming weeks, that may be the strongest bullish element to pull the wheat markets out of their lowly trading ranges that have hovered near their contract lows the past nearly three months.
90-day outlook: USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales of 164,800 MT during the week ended Jan. 16, down 68% from the previous week and down 52% from the four-week average. Net sales were short pre-report expectations. This week’s disappointing U.S. wheat sales numbers came despite the U.S. dollar index that has been trending lower for three weeks and has hit a five-week low. U.S. wheat sales abroad need to show significant improvement in the coming months for futures prices to pull out of their months-long slumps and begin to sustain uptrends. The late-March USDA acreage updates will likely be the grains markets’ key data points of the three-month period.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton climbed 14 points to 67.61 cents, marking a one-point weekly loss.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures continued to struggle despite a withering U.S. dollar and evidence of a second week of solid weekly export sales. However, technical resistance at the 20-day moving average continues to curb buyer interest, along with a lack of fundamentally bullish news. Look for limited short-covering interest to persist into next week, with a continued flavor of sideways-to-lower trade as technical headwinds loom.
30-day outlook: The National Cotton Council will hold its annual meeting February 14-16, which will provide an initial look at 2025-26 U.S. cotton acres, though weather in Brazil will continue to be closely monitored amid a delayed soybean harvest, which could lead to later-than-expected safrinha cotton acres. World Weather Inc. reported 2025 cotton plantings in Brazil were 39% complete, compared to 57% a year-ago. Drier weather is needed for soybean harvest to advance and to improve the environment for aggressive cotton planting.
90-day outlook: U.S. cotton exports have been consistently lackluster throughout the marketing-year, though an uptick in weekly sales in recent weeks could be indicative of increasing demand amid lower prices. Earlier today, USDA reported weekly upland cotton sales of 348,900 RB for the week ended Jan. 16 reached a marketing-year high and rose 10% from the previous week and 62% from the four-week average. Look for traders to continue to closely monitor U.S. exports and the direction of the dollar, which will take direction from President Trump’s trade policies as well as the Federal Reserve’s steps to combat inflation in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.