Corn
Price action: March corn fell 5 3/4 cents to $4.84 1/4, closing near the session low after trading at the highest intraday level since May 30.
Fundamental analysis: A reach to a new for-the-move and near eight-month high in corn futures spurred some profit-taking as the session progressed, despite lingering weather concerns in Brazil. Meanwhile, evidence of export demand appeared prior to the open, with USDA reporting a daily sale of 136,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25. However, preliminary 2025-26 acreage forecasts of 93.5 million acres from S&P Global Insights may have spurred some corrective selling in addition to modest gains in the U.S. dollar in the wake of recent losses.
World Weather Inc. reported center-west and center-south areas of Brazil would experience much improved drying conditions, which should continue through the weekend and into early next week. However, increased rainfall is expected to return in the middle to latter part of next week, which may prevail for at least a ten-day period, slowing or stalling harvest and further delaying safrinha corn plantings. Moreover, east central and southeastern Argentina, Uruguay and neighboring areas of southern and western Rio Grande do Sul and southwestern Paraguay will experience net drying conditions, increasing crop stress.
Technical analysis: March corn futures gave up all of Tuesday’s gains, after notching a fresh near-term high in early trade, ending the session back below support at $4.84 3/4. Nonetheless, bulls continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage and continue to seek a close above psychological resistance at $5.00. However, interim resistance stands at today’s failed support level, then at $4.87 1/2 and $4.95 1/2. Conversely, bears need to secure a close below $4.55, though support is layered at $4.79 1/2, $4.76 3/4 and the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $4.74 1/4 and $4.64 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop in the cash market. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 11 1/4 cents to $10.56, near the daily low after hitting a 3.5-month high early on. March soybean meal rose $4.80 to $315.80 and nearer the session high. March soybean oil fell 135 points to 44.42 cents, nearer the session low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil futures markets saw corrective price pullbacks today following recent gains. Spreaders today were featured buying soybean meal and selling bean oil.
Bearish for the soy complex today was President Trump saying his administration is discussing a 10% punitive duty on Chinese imports because fentanyl is being sent to the U.S. via Mexico and Canada. China said it is willing to maintain communication with the U.S. to “properly handle differences and expand mutually beneficial cooperation.” This situation is still fluid, but the uncertainty of the matter does lean bearish for soybeans.
S&P Global Insights projected U.S. soybean plantings at 83.3 million acres this year, down 700,000 acres from its December forecast and 3.8 million acres less than in 2024.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in Argentina “was welcome and beneficial for the crops impacted, but much more is needed and much of east-central and southeastern Argentina will remain dry-biased for the next couple of weeks. Rain in the north and west will benefit a few crops periodically.” Meantime, Brazil crop areas will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine through the weekend, but a boost in rain for center-west and center-south next week through the first half of February “will induce delays to early soybean maturation and harvest progress,” said the forecaster.
Weekly USDA export sales will be released Friday morning, delayed by one day because of the federal holiday Monday.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.73 1/2 and then at $10.85. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.39 and then at $10.30.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at the January high of $321.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $293.50. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $318.50 and then at $321.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $307.50 and then at this week’s low of $293.50.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 47.10 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 41.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 45.00 cents and then at today’s high of 45.84 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 44.21 cents and then at 44.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 40% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop production.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 40% priced on 2024-crop production.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.54 after carving the highest intraday level in over a month early on. March HRW wheat fell 3/4 cent to $5.74 3/4, ending near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: A retreat from session highs across winter wheat futures transpired as the session progressed amid a broad corrective tone across the ag complex in the wake of a string of recent gains. However, selling interest remained rather limited amid a firming technical posture and bitter cold conditions across the U.S., which pushed SRW wheat to the highest intraday level since Dec. 11 in early trade. Heightened volatility across the marketplace is likely to become more common for the foreseeable future as traders adjust to the Trump administration’s trade and economic policies.
World Weather Inc. reports some minor wheat damage may have occurred in a part of the lower Midwest and areas of the southeast into the Tennessee River Basin overnight, but most of the wheat will survive today’s cold. Some damage may have also occurred on Monday and Tuesday in the central Plains, although the extent will be unknown until this spring or at harvest. In HRW wheat country, threatening weather is unlikely over the next two weeks, though a new arctic air mass is expected to build up in Canada and will need to be monitored for a potential shift down in the central U.S. later in February.
Technical analysis: March SRW wheat futures were limited by resistance at $5.66 1/4 today, while support at the 40-, 10- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading at $5.46 3/4, $5.42 3/4 and $5.42 1/2, served up solid support. Bulls will continue to look toward securing a close above $6.00, though the 100-day moving average of $5.75 will impede those efforts. Moreover, a breach of $6.00 will find bulls then facing resistance at the 200-day moving average, currently trading at $6.07 1/2. Conversely, a move below support at the 40, 10- and 20-day moving averages, will find bears looking to extend below the contract low of $5.26, with a breach of $5.00 then serving as their next objective.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 52 points to 67.14 cents and nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton bulls continue to be sorely disappointed the futures market has failed to show rally potential despite a recent solid rally in the U.S. stock indexes, a drop in the U.S. dollar index, rallying grain futures markets and an up-trending crude oil market. Such suggests very limited upside price potential for the cotton futures market in the near term.
World Weather Inc. today said rain “will be needed during the heart of winter and early spring in the U.S. southwestern desert region, southern California, both south and west Texas and from northern Florida to eastern North Carolina to ensure favorable soil moisture for spring planting.” The U.S. Delta will be wettest for a while along with “portions” of the interior southeast, said the forecaster.
Weekly USDA U.S. cotton export sales will be released Friday morning, delayed by one day because of the federal holiday Monday.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 68.30 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.16 cents and then at the contract low of 66.60 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.