Corn
Price action: May corn surged 7 1/4 cents to $4.90 1/4, marking a 30-cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures had an impressive show of strength this week, closing higher each day. Prices are in the window where prices saw sharp selling pressure in late February. There was a modest support zone that slowed selling interest then around $4.92 1/4, which is where May futures have paused. Some consolidation is possible next week as prices have quickly neared overbought levels on the daily bar chart.
Consolidation would be healthy as if prices were to become too overbought, a violent reversal lower would become more likely. Markets have quickly been pricing in the reduced impact of tariffs on agricultural exports, which has helped fuel the recent leg higher, but there is still a lot of uncertainty as policies can change rather quickly in this environment.
30-day outlook: Corn prices have quickly become dictated by weather as planting concerns plague the eastern portion of the Corn Belt. Below average precipitation is expected in the first week of the outlook which will be beneficial for flood stricken areas. Meanwhile, the second week of the outlook calls for the return of additional precipitation and will have to be closely watched, says World Weather Inc. Cool temps are expected as well. Given the big jump in corn acres noted in last week’s prospective plantings report from USDA, any delay to plantings could have some producers opt to plant soybeans rather than corn, which would ultimately be bullish in the medium term. If producers do still plant corn, history shows the further planting gets pushed into May, the less likely a record yield becomes, though last year did somewhat buck that trend.
90-day outlook: Trade talks continue to be the major driver of price action in the marketplace. This week was big for bulls with Trump delaying tariffs on most trading partners for 90 days. Reports came in today that Thailand will cut tariffs on imports of corn from the U.S., says the Thailand finance minister. Later in the day came reports that the EU will pause tariffs for 90 days following Trump’s pause earlier this week. That means a scheduled 25% levy on corn will no longer go into place. The recent dealmaking shows Trump’s desire to improve trade flows for the U.S. across the world. Some of the anticipated pain has been at least delayed, but there are still major concerns as some countries, like China, have opted to go for an all out trade war rather than negotiate.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rallied 13 3/4 cents to $10.42 3/4 and surged 65 3/4 cents on the week. May soymeal rose $1.70 to $299.60 and scored a $16.50 weekly gain. May soyoil jumped 103 points to 47.35 cents and posted a 151-point week-over-week gain.
5-day outlook: Soybean futures soared to end the week, despite China’s additional ramped up tariffs on U.S. imports. A plummeting U.S. dollar was a likely hero, which fell to a three-year low today. However, the grain and soy complexes have shown incredible resiliency after facing pressure in the wake of China’s initial retaliation. Meanwhile, USDA produced its monthly supply and demand update earlier this week, which proved mostly neutral for soybeans, with an increase in crush and estimated residual use negating an increase in imports and a decline in seed use. However, ending stocks continue to sit well above year-ago.
The world will continue to closely monitor trade tensions between the U.S. and China. China has announced it will raise tariffs on all U.S. goods from 84% to 125% starting April 12, which marked its sharpest retaliatory move yet. China’s commerce ministry issued a stark warning, stating, “If the U.S. continues to infringe on China’s rights and interests, we will resolutely counterattack and fight to the end.” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins indicated the administration is watching the impact of Chinese retaliation “hour by hour.”
Meanwhile, evidence of export demand continues to pour in, with USDA reporting an additional daily sale of 121,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations. Of the total, 55,000 MT is for delivery during 2024-25 and 66,000 MT is for delivery during 2025-26.
30-day outlook: Weather is becoming increasingly important as the calendar advances through spring, with producers across the U.S. looking to plant the 2025-26 crop. Recent rains and flooding in the Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin areas will continue to slowly recede over the next week to ten days, though some rain is expected to return to the region during the second week of the forecast but no new flooding is anticipated. Some producers in this particular region may be pondering switching acres from corn to soybeans or potentially preventive plant. Meanwhile, World Weather Inc. reports the northern Plains and upper Midwest will get some moisture Sunday into Monday and again the following week, which will improve spring planting conditions.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. soybeans will continue as a longer-term market driver, especially as the U.S./China trade relations continue to deteriorate rapidly. However, there are increasing prospects of trade deals with other countries, which could include increased soybean and derivative purchases in the coming months. Meanwhile, the marketplace will continue to watch closely for an increased biofuel mandate for biomass diesel, which has been introduced to the EPA.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat futures rose 17 3/4 cents to $5.55 3/4, near the daily high, hitting a three-week high and on the week up 26 3/4 cents. May HRW wheat futures gained 10 cents to $5.68 and on the week rose 10 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The technically bullish weekly high closes today in the winter wheat futures markets sets the table for follow-through buying interest from the chart-based speculators next week. The stronger gains in SRW wheat futures versus HRW futures today suggest the speculators are becoming more interested in playing the long side of wheat futures. Traders next week will focus on the Monday afternoon weekly crop progress reports from USDA, as well as the mentality of the general marketplace that will dictate risk attitudes that impact the grains on a daily basis. Wheat traders will also keep a closer eye on raw commodity sector leader crude oil, which this week saw prices slump to a four-year low. More selling pressure in crude oil would be a significantly bearish element for the grain markets.
30-day outlook: Weather patterns in U.S. wheat country are becoming more closely watched by wheat traders. World Weather Inc. today said in U.S. HRW regions, dry weather will continue through Tuesday before some rain arrives. “Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be hot enough for concern, especially with the combination of strong winds too. Highs in the 80s and 90s are expected, and a few extremes Sunday could reach as high as 100 to 102 Fahrenheit in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far southwestern Oklahoma.” Some rain is expected next Wednesday, especially in eastern areas. This rain could be the beginning of a pattern that gradually gets more active. “Rainfall will increase in the second week of the outlook, and unsettled weather in the April 20 – 25 timeframe will likely involve some strong to severe thunderstorms. The rain that occurs will be beneficial, but this is unlikely to be enough to fully satisfy farmers,” said World Weather.
90-day outlook: The wheat markets’ fate over the next three months is very likely to be heavily influenced by global trade issues—namely tariff wars. The U.S. and China are presently in an escalating trade war. U.S.-China tensions will very likely have to markedly improve in the coming months in order for the grain markets to sustain any solid price uptrends.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 58 points to 65.89 cents, but for the week rallied 351 points.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures faced modest pressure to end the week, despite continued pressure on the U.S. dollar and slight corrective gains in crude oil futures. Earlier in the week the natural fiber was able to claw back a notable portion of last week’s losses which transpired in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Though the gap on the daily chart from the April 2 low has yet to be filled as technical pressure at the 100-day moving average has curbed momentum. Some uncertainty also lingers around how global trade will shake out as demand from China is likely to be drastically reduced at this juncture.
30-day outlook: Recent flooding in the lower Midwest and Delta has surely paused plantings throughout the area, which raises greater questions around plantings and ultimately supply as the floodwaters are expected to linger through the next week to ten days. Meanwhile, in other major U.S. cotton-growing regions, such as West and South Texas, dryness is expected to prevail over the next ten days to two weeks. World Weather Inc. notes rain is needed most in West Texas since South Texas received rain recently. Weather will continue to be closely monitored as the season progresses, especially amid expectations of sharply lower plantings.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. cotton will be a longer-term focus, especially amid soured U.S./China trade relations and fading sentiments around the U.S. economy as uncertainties grip both traders and consumers. However, musings of increased cotton purchases from countries like Bangladesh and India could certainly prove to be a beginning catalyst for heightened demand for cotton as the marketing-year progresses. Key will be if those purchases will take place, and how often and over what period of time they will occur. Look for some uncertainties to continue to linger until firm answers are provided.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.