Corn
Price action: May corn rose 5 1/4 cents to $4.69 1/4 and gave up 1/4 cent on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures ended the week on a positive note, though remained technically strapped despite support from extended U.S. dollar weakness and corrective strength in crude oil futures. The marketplace will continue to focus on trade negotiations, though next week will include USDA’s WASDE report, due out March 11, which could bring a muted tone early in the week.
30-day outlook: USDA’s survey-based Prospective Planting Report will be the major focus in the next month, which will switch quickly to weather as U.S. planting efforts commence. While the marketplace generally expects larger corn acres, waning working capital on the average U.S. farm and rather robust input prices could have many producers leaning toward soybeans despite the current supply and demand landscape. Moreover, weak cotton prices are likely to also entice alternate crops, with soybeans and grain sorghum both lesser cost options.
90-day outlook: Weather in the U.S. and Brazil will be the main focus over the next few months, along with export and ethanol demand as the marketplace gauges both domestic and global demand amid lingering inflation, which will likely keep interest rates elevated and ultimately crimp buying power. However, a borderline tight domestic supply situation and a late-planted Brazilian safrinha crop could lead to heightened volatility if weather proves subpar.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybean futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $10.25, near mid-range and for the week down 3/4 cent. May soybean meal lost 50 cents to $304.40, near mid-range and for the week up $4.20. May bean oil rose 25 points to 43.42 cents, near mid-range and down 70 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans and soybean meal futures finished the week Friday near their weekly high closes, which is a positive that suggests near-term market bottoms are in place and that some follow-through buying interest is likely early next week. However, the Trump administration and its disruptive trade policy actions, and the potential for new, markets-sensitive pronouncements, will remain on the front burner of the grain futures markets.
Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report for March is expected to show U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 380 million bushels—the same as in the February report. U.S. soybean exports are pegged at 1.821 billion bushels compared to the 1.825 billion seen in the February report. The Bloomberg survey also showed Argentina and Brazil corn and soybean production numbers virtually unchanged from the February report.
30-day outlook: Late-season weather in South American soybean regions will continue to garner keen trader attention in the coming few weeks.
World Weather Inc. today said western and some southern Argentina crop areas will receive additional rain through Saturday before dry conditions impact much of the nation next week. “The change will be good for the wetter areas in the nation, but dry conditions will fester in the northeast and some east-central crop areas for a while,” said the forecaster. Greater rain is possible in these drier areas March 15-21. Meanwhile, erratic rainfall in southern Brazil during the coming week will benefit all crop areas, although some more than others and greater rain may be needed. Some needed rain may fall in northeastern Brazil after mid-month. Mato Grosso and other areas nearby should encounter periodic rainfall that will be ideal for long term crop development.
The late-March USDA U.S. planted acreage intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports will be very important for the soybean market and could set the tone for price action into early summer.
90-day outlook: In the coming weeks, it’s likely the new U.S. trade policies will become better known and understood, and be less disruptive for grain futures markets. That scenario would likely allow the key “outside-markets” to have more daily price impact on soy complex prices. Presently, the U.S. dollar index is trending lower. A weaker U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market makes U.S. ag exports cheaper to purchase in non-U.S. currency. It’s important to note that price trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. That suggests the depreciation of the U.S. dollar could continue in the coming months. Meanwhile, the slumping greenback’s bullishness could be offset if crude oil prices continue to weaken in the coming weeks or few months. Crude oil is the leader of the raw commodity sector and if oil prices struggle, the grains will have a much harder time trying to sustain price uptrends.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.51 1/4 and gave up 4 1/2 cents on the week. May HRW fell a penny to $5.64 3/4 and marked a weekly loss of 8 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Wheat futures ended the week under modest pressure despite continued U.S. dollar weakness as trade uncertainties loom. Some hesitation likely resulted in the wake of President Trump’s discussion with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which was described to be “colorful” and “heated” at times. Moreover, President Trump also noted earlier today that tariffs against Mexico and Canada could rise above 25%, hinting that while he paused tariffs until April 2 for goods under the USMCA agreement, higher tariffs might still come. Traders will continue to focus on advancing trade talks, though USDA’s March WASDE next week will likely bring a muted tone early in the week.
30-day outlook: As spring approaches, U.S. weather will remain a focus for both the growing winter wheat crop and as producers begin to ramp up spring wheat planting efforts. World Weather Inc. notes another round of significant warming is coming to the U.S. Plains over the next several days, followed by cooling, though winter crop conditions are unlikely to change much. The forecaster stated, though, there is still a need for greater precip in much of the region. A moist and mild spring is warranted this year so that crops can set and develop new tillers to make up for all the damage from the winter cold. Wheat in the southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states is either coming out of dormancy or has been greening recently.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. wheat and trade relations will be the longer-term focus as President Trump looks to level the proverbial playing field when it comes to trade with other countries. Moreover, a special focus will remain on the U.S. dollar, which plummeted to four-month lows this week, making U.S. commodities more competitive on the global marketplace.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 86 points to 66.07 cents, nearer the daily high and on the week gained 82 points.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bullish weekly high close in May cotton futures sets the stage for chart-based, follow-through buying interest from the speculators early next week. U.S. trade policy and any new Trump administration moves on tariffs will remain very price-sensitive for the cotton futures market.
Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report for March is expected to show U.S. cotton production this year at 14.41 million bales, according to a Bloomberg survey. U.S. exports are forecast at 11.02 million bales and ending stocks at 4.93 million bales. Those numbers are the same or very close to numbers seen in the February WASDE report.
30-day outlook: Weather in U.S. cotton country will become more in focus for cotton traders as springtime approaches. World Weather Inc. today said rain is needed this spring in the U.S. southwestern desert region, southern California and both South and West Texas to ensure favorable soil moisture for spring planting. A few areas in the southeastern U.S. are still drier than usual and need rain as well. The U.S. Delta will be wettest for a while along with portions of the interior southeast. West Texas precipitation will remain insignificant through the middle part of March. “South Texas needs warmer temperatures and abundant precipitation to induce the best planting environment for March, but the warm up will occur without significant rain. South Texas will be dry for at least the next two weeks,” said World Weather.
The late-March USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports may set the tone for cotton futures price action well into spring.
90-day outlook: The cotton market continues to struggle with weak export demand. Historic spindle share losses (industry shifts to artificial fibers) are a big part of decline in U.S. cotton sales abroad. Three key “outside markets” are likely to be a major driver in cotton prices in the next few months. The U.S. dollar index is trending lower and that’s a cotton-friendly development as it makes U.S. cotton more price-competitive on world markets. However, crude oil prices are also trending down and that’s negative for the entire raw commodity sector, including cotton. Finally, price action in the U.S. stock indexes may be the most important outside-market element for cotton the next several weeks. If the U.S. stock indexes continue to trend down and enter bear-market territory, then U.S. consumer demand for apparel would be seriously dented and in turn hurt the already-listing cotton market.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.