Corn
Price action: May corn rose 3 cents to $4.84 1/4, ending near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures firmed modestly at midweek, holding an inside range as bulls continue to show exhaustion. However, solid underlying technicals, persisting U.S. dollar weakness and stabilizing crude oil futures certainly limited seller interest. Weather woes are expected to increase over the next several days, with World Weather Inc. expecting the greatest rainfall totals from eastern Texas through southeastern Arkansas and the heart of Missouri to Indiana and Ohio. Planting delays are expected to continue in saturated areas of the Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi River Basins.
President Trump’s recent 90-day delay on tariffs for most countries could bode well for corn exports over the near-term. With the measures, which were originally set to go into effect in mid-April, now set for implementation on July 14, providing corn importers a window to purchase U.S. corn cargoes as the origin is currently the cheapest worldwide. This is a likely explanation for recent purchases from Spain and Portugal, though sources have noted purchases from the U.S. remain risky, given the U.S. position on tariffs could change at any time.
USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report early Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 600,000 to 800,000 MT during the week ended April 10. Last week, net sales of 785,583 MT were reported for the previous week.
Earlier today, the Energy Information Administration reported weekly ethanol production averaged 1.012 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended April 11, marking a 29-week low. Production declined 9,000 bpd (0.9%) from the previous week but rose 29,000 bpd (3.0%) from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks declined 220,000 barrels to 26.814 million barrels.
Technical analysis: May corn futures continued to face resistance at $4.87, while initial support served at $4.77 1/4. Bulls continue to grasp the near-term technical advantage and continue to look toward holding a close above psychological resistance at $5.00. Meanwhile, bears seek to edge back below support at $4.70. However, first resistance will remain at $4.87, then at $4.90 3/4 and $4.95, while first support will serve at $4.79 then at $4.75.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July beans closed 3 3/4 cents higher to $10.50 1/4 and closed near mid-range. July meal climbed $3.2 to $304.2. July bean oil inched 16 points higher to 48.00 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged before closing modestly higher on the day. July futures have become the front-month as open interest and volume have fallen dramatically over the course of the last two weeks. China’s hard-lined stance and the lack of negotiations taking place between the U.S. and China have traders opting to sit on the sidelines for the time being. Soybeans are particularly sensitive to trade news considering China’s big role in the world market for beans and the abundance of alternatives for supplies, particularly this year. While shipments have been slow out of Brazil so far due to the slow harvest, shipments are ramping up and will continue at a rapid pace over the next few months. There is some speculation that Brazilian domestic use (largely crush) will be well above what USDA anticipates. If that is the case, it could shift the world balance sheet from a place of overabundance to historically normal levels, possibly driving additional demand to U.S. supplies in the fall. That would be a key shift in sentiment as the current sentiment is that demand for new-crop supplies will be limited given current trade policies.
Much of the Midwest saw another day of dry and improving to favorable conditions for fieldwork Tuesday, says World Weather Inc. Portions of southwestern and northeastern Ohio saw additional rain, keeping conditions saturated. Aside from some light showers, most of the Ohio River Basin will be dry into Friday and some planting could occur in well drained areas, the forecaster notes.
USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report tomorrow morning. Analysts expect sales between 100,000 and 800,000 MT of soybeans for old-crop. Last week, sales totaled 172,324 MT.
Technical analysis: July soybeans traded on either side of unchanged as prices continue to consolidate in an apparent bull flag on the daily bar chart. Resistance stands at the psychological $10.50 mark with additional strength looking to overcome resistance at $10.53. Stiffer resistance comes in at $10.62. Support comes in at $10.43 3/4 then the 40-day moving average at $10.35 1/4 on a reversal lower.
July meal closed solidly higher, negating yesterday’s loss. Bulls maintain a slight technical advantage on the daily bar chart as they defended initial support at $301.6, the 10-day moving average, today. Additional support comes in at the psychological $300.0 mark. Resistance stands at $304.7, the 40-day moving average, then Friday’s high of $308.1 on a bounce.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 5 3/4 cents to $5.47 3/4 and nearer the daily high. May HRW wheat gained a nickel to $5.58, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets today saw short covering and some perceived value buying. Today’s modest gains were still impressive given the “risk-off” trader/investor mentality in the general marketplace today that saw the U.S. stock indexes sell off sharply. Solid losses in the U.S. dollar index today also worked in favor of the wheat market bulls.
World Weather Inc. today said the best chances for rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas are expected from mid-week next week through the end of this month. “Rain will impact most of the region at one time or another, although a general soaking is not likely in the west. Some crop improvement is anticipated, although there will be an ongoing need for more rain.” Soft wheat areas in the Midwest will get greater rain Friday into the weekend with frequent follow-up moisture in the following week “and that may keep some wheat fields wet and vulnerable to some wet weather disease,” said World Weather.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales in all marketing years of -100,000 MT to 500,000 MT, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. Last week’s reported U.S. wheat sales came in at 215,000 MT.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests market bottoms are in place. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $5.75 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.17 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.56 3/4 and then at $5.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.37 and then at $5.25.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.41 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.67 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.77 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.48 and then at $5.41 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures closed 25 points higher at 66.37 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures posted gains for the second consecutive session, though prices continue to trade in Monday’s range. Volume continues to sink lower and most trade is now taking place in the July contract, rolling earlier than usual. Cotton prices were supported by a weaker U.S. dollar index today, which has been trading near par the last couple of days. A weaker dollar makes U.S. origin supplies more competitive on the world market. That supportive note alongside reports that Pakistan is looking to buy additional U.S. cotton in an effort to appease Trump and avoid tariffs likely support cotton prices today. Pakistan is already the second-largest buyer of U.S. cotton by value after China and mainly sells garments and textiles to America, which is its largest export market. Still, until those purchases hit the books, a sustained rally seems unlikely. Traders are looking forward to tomorrow morning’s Export Sales Report from USDA. The past couple of weeks have shown strong export shipments while export sales have been relatively lackluster.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures posted gains for the second consecutive session though bears continue to maintain the technical edge. Bulls failure to overcome resistance at the 10-day moving average at 66.54 cents was disappointing. Strength above that mark would challenge resistance at 67.40 cents. Support stems from 65.00 cents on a reversal back lower.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.