Corn
Price action: March corn rose 2 cents to $4.95 1/4, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: A rally in wheat ultimately pulled corn futures from session lows today, even as the U.S. dollar rebounded modestly from notable selling in the past three sessions. USDA’s weekly export sales data, which proved quite stable for corn, failed to support selling in corn shortly following this morning’s open, though forecasts of cold weather in the Black Sea region ultimately sent wheat futures to a fresh near-term high, ultimately easing selling pressure across the ag complex.
Meanwhile, South American weather prospects remain quite uncertain regarding safrinha corn plantings as showers and thunderstorms in center-west and center-south crop areas are expected over the next two weeks. World Weather Inc. notes frequency and intensity of the precip should be down from that of recent weeks allowing for “some” improved harvest progress and eventually safrinha corn plantings. In Argentina, dry and very warm to hot conditions are expected, with central and northern crop areas most stressed.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly corn sales of 1.48 MMT for the week ended Jan. 30, up 9% from the previous week and 32% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 850,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
Technical analysis: March corn finished the session above the 10-day moving average of $4.89 1/2 after a solid test to the level early in the session. The area will continue to serve as initial support, with close backing from the 20-day moving average of $4.89 1/4. Bulls continue to own the near-term technical advantage, and continue to look toward holding a close above $5.00, though this week’s high of $4.98 1/2 will serve as interim resistance. Meanwhile, bears will look towards securing a close below last week’s low of $4.72 1/2, with first support serving at $4.90, then again at Tuesday’s low of $4.87 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop in the cash market. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybean futures closed 3 1/2 cents higher to $10.60 1/2. March meal futures settled $1.90 lower to $306.40. March bean oil climbed 31 points to 45.40 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures saw action on either side of unchanged before settling modestly higher on the day. Traders have quickly grown accustomed to headlines driving trade and today lacked much significant, price-altering news. Traders are likely going to continue to keep a close eye on weather in South America in the coming days. Rain is expected to remain persistent over the coming ten days from Mato Grosso to Goias, Sao Paulo and northern Parana, producing further delays to soybean harvesting leading to likely additional declines in crop quality, World Weather Inc. says. The remainder of Brazil is expected to see a healthy mix of rain and sunshine over the next couple of weeks. Despite excessive wetness, private forecasters continue to inch up their Brazilian production forecasts. Traders will pay close attention to any revisions USDA makes in their WASDE report next week.
USDA reported soybean export sales of 387,700 MT for the week ended Jan. 30, down 12% from the previous week and 40% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low end of the pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 MT to 1.1 MMT. Sales were a little disappointing and have largely stalled out since mid-December. Soymeal export demand on the other hand, has proven quite robust as prices remain depressed. Soymeal sales totaled 530,600 MT, the most in over two years, while export shipments totaled 466,800 MT, the largest total all time.
Technical analysis: March soybean futures posted modest gains today as prices were supported by 10-day moving average support and capped by 200-day moving average resistance as bulls retain a slight technical advantage. The former stands as initial support at $10.54 1/2, which is quickly backed by the psychological $10.50 mark, then $10.44 1/2. Resistance comes in at $10.65 3/4, the 200-day moving average, then yesterday’s for-the-move high of $10.79 3/4.
March meal futures saw persistent selling pressure for the second consecutive session. Prices were supported by uptrend support at $303.00, while additional selling has bulls targeting psychological $300.0 support. Resistance stands at $308.90, the 100-day moving average, then downtrend resistance at $313.50. Strength above that mark would signal a technical breakout on the daily bar chart.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat rose 15 1/2 cents to $5.87 3/4, near the daily high and hit a three-month high. March HRW wheat rose 15 3/4 cents to $6.07 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a 3.5-month high. March spring wheat futures closed 10 cents higher to $6.28 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw perceived bargain hunting and chart-based buying featured today as the near-term technical postures for SRW and HRW have markedly improved. Wheat market bulls ignored negative outside-market forces today that included a firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices.
Wheat also received support from a bullish weekly USDA export sales report. The agency reported U.S. wheat export sales of 438,900 MT for the week ended Jan. 30, down 4% from the previous week but up 41% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of the pre-report expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said that in HRW wheat country an arctic air mass is expected to shift down into the entire region this weekend through Feb. 13. “The arctic air would be of concern due to the loss of winter hardiness from recent warm weather. However, protective snow is likely before the coldest air arrives. This snow will occur Monday through Wednesday and may be significant in some areas.” In the Northern Plains, arctic air will continue to dominate the weather pattern in the next two weeks. “Winterkill concerns from this are quite low due to protective snow cover,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat futures markets scored bullish “outside days” up on the daily bar charts today and the bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Recent price action suggests near-term market bottoms are in place. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at $6.10. First support is seen at $5.75 and then at today’s low of $5.66 1/2.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the October 2024 high of $6.38 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.07 3/4 and then at $6.17. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at today’s low of $5.86 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures closed a tick lower to 66.03 cents and near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures traded on either side of unchanged today before settling near unchanged as prices traded in the tightest range in a week. Cotton futures fared fairly well considering the catalysts today were largely negative for the market. The U.S. dollar index saw a bounce today after facing extensive weakness the past couple of sessions. Crude oil futures continue to undergo weakness as well, driven by the anticipation of abundant crude in the U.S. marketplace due to increasing production from the Trump administration. Export sales were rather disappointing this morning as well. USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 194,800 bales for the week ended Jan. 30, which was down 32% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average. Traders continue to hope that the Trump administration will revisit Phase 1 purchase agreements, which could eventually drive up Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products.
Technical analysis: March cotton futures closed modestly higher today but traded in a relatively tight range on low volume as the Goldman roll slows down. Bulls struggled to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at 66.55 cents today. Strength above that mark has bulls targeting downtrend resistance at 67.05 cents. Resurgent selling pressure has bulls seeking to hold support at 65.88 cents, which is reinforced by the contract low of 65.01 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.