Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 5 3/4 cents to $4.94 1/2, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw follow-through buying interest today as traders had a much better collective attitude regarding U.S. relations with its major trading partners, following the Trump administration allowing one month for dialogue with its major trading partners, before new trade tariffs would kick in on March 1. Monday afternoon’s monthly corn crush report was also deemed friendly for corn futures prices. Strong losses in the U.S. dollar index today also aided the corn market bulls, as did good gains in soybean, meal and wheat futures markets.
USDA reported a daily U.S. corn sale of 132,000 MT to South Korea during the 2024-25 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in Argentina overnight “fell significantly in northern Buenos Aires, southeastern Cordoba and southern Santa Fe, with sufficient amounts to improve topsoil moisture for a little while. Central and southern Buenos Aires was not relieved, though.” Additional rains will occur today. Meantime, the forecaster said Brazil rainfall should lighten up and become more infrequent in center-west and center- south crop areas later this week into the weekend, “improving the opportunity for some crop areas to firm up.” Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase again next week slowing fieldwork once again, said World Weather.
Meantime, Pro Farmer South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian corn crop forecast 2 MMT, to 123 MMT, as it’s likely 30% to 40% of the safrinha crop will be planted after the ideal window. Cordonnier kept his Argentine corn crop forecast unchanged at 47 MMT. Cordonnier forecast total South American corn production will decline 300,000 MT (0.2%) from one year ago.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at this week’s low of $4.72 1/2. First resistance is seen at the January high of $4.97 1/2 and then at $5.00. First support is seen at $4.90 and then at today’s low of $4.87 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop in the cash market. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Advice: We advise hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 15% of 2024-crop in the cash market to get to 55% sold. We also advise selling an initial 10% of expected 2025-crop production for harvest delivery.
Price action: March soybeans rallied 16 3/4 cents to $10.75, marking a four-month high close. March soymeal surged $10.30 to $314.00, closing just short of the intraday high. March soyoil closed down 75 points at 45.76 cents, ending well off today’s low.
Fundamental analysis: Turnaround Tuesday wasn’t in the cards today across the ag complex, with soybeans ultimately making a run at the hard-nosed 200-day moving average for the second time in a week-and-a-half, ultimately securing a close above the level. Soymeal futures led the soy complex higher, with a plummeting U.S. dollar and lingering weather concerns in Argentina; a well-renowned meal exporter. World Weather Inc. notes crop moisture and heat stress is likely through early next week. Meanwhile, the marketplace is seemingly more at ease with trade rhetoric with China, in the wake of the country’s more cautious response to the Trump Administration’s most recent tariffs, which implied an outright trade war may be averted. Nonetheless, traders will continue to closely monitor the situation as it progresses.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier continues to forecast a record Brazilian crop, maintaining his forecast of 170 MMT for Brazil despite harvest delays in central Brazil due to persistent rainfall. The heftiest delays are in the country’s largest soybean producing state of Mato Grosso, which has faced damage to roads, compounding logistical issues as grain elevators and cooperatives lack the drying capacity to quickly dry high-moisture soybeans. Conversely, Cordonnier noted concerns of dryness in southern Brazil, where crop areas have received a fraction of its normal rainfall over the last 1-2 months, with expectations of lingering dryness this week.
Although Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean forecast unchanged at 49 MMT, he indicated a lower bias going forward with a close eye on weather.
Technical analysis: Soybean bulls were out in full force today, ultimately securing a close above the 200-day moving average, currently trading at $10.70 3/4, for the first time in over a year and also forged a four-month high close. While some profit-taking is certainly likely following today’s session, bulls will continue to look toward holding a close above $11.00, with interim resistance layered at $10.78 1/2 and $10.96 3/4. Conversely, bears will look toward edging below the 20-day moving average of $10.41 1/4, with support layered at the 200-day moving average and again at the 10-day, currently trading at $10.54 1/2.
March soymeal posted strong gains, ending the session above the 20-, 10- and 100-day moving averages of $304.60, $307.20 and $308.70. Initial resistance will now serve at $31.70, which is backed by the Jan. 2 high of 321.60 and the 200-day moving average of $3223.60. Meanwhile, initial support will serve at today’s failed resistance levels, then at the 10-day moving average of $311.20 and again at psychological support at $300.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 15% of 2024-crop in the cash market to get to 55% sold. Also sell an initial 10% of expected 2025-crop production for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 15% of 2024-crop to get to 55% sold. You should be 40% priced on 2024-crop production. Also sell an initial 10% of expected 2025-crop production for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW futures surged 10 1/4 cents to $5.77 and settled near session highs. March HRW futures closed 9 cents higher, near session highs. March HRS futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $6.21 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat futures surged to fresh for-the-move highs today as bulls add further credence to the claim that a low is in place. Prices overcame key 100-day moving average resistance today, a level that had capped strength over the past week. Bulls were encouraged by a weaker U.S. dollar index today, which gave up all of yesterday’s gain and then some. The dollar continues to work lower on the daily bar chart, which makes U.S. origin supplies more competitively priced on the world market.
Wheat bulls were encouraged today by weakening U.S. winter wheat conditions. While winter wheat conditions went into dormancy at the highest rated level since 2018, conditions have deteriorated over the winter months. State-level winter wheat condition ratings showed modest deterioration in the HRW crop during January, despite an improvement in top producer Kansas. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop slipped 0.5 point over the past month to 329.8, though the reading for the end of December didn’t include Texas. Click here for details.
Technical analysis: March SRW futures climbed to fresh for-the-move highs today as bulls retain the technical advantage. Tentative resistance stands at $5.80 though bulls are ultimately seeking to close prices above resistance at $5.85. Support comes in at yesterday’s high of $5.73 3/4 then the 100-day moving average at $5.76 3/4, which has previously capped gains.
March HRW futures climbed to a more-than three month high today as bulls retain the near-term advantage. Initial resistance at $5.98 3/4, the 200-day moving average, is quickly backed by the psychological $6.00 mark. Support comes in at $5.90 3/4 then $5.79 1/4 on a reversal lower.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 90 points to 66.94 cents, forging a high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures were able to score back-to-back gains, with a plunging U.S. dollar serving as an invitation for extended short-covering from Monday’s low. Meanwhile, it seems the marketplace has generally found some solace, most notably following China’s more cautious response to President Trump’s most recent round of tariffs.
Some concerns continue to linger around weather conditions in South America as well as areas of eastern Australia, which is also supporting the natural fiber, while traders ponder U.S. acreage as the calendar quickly advances toward spring. World Weather Inc. notes northern Argentina cotton development should be slowed by hotter temps and lacking rain, which will prevail for a week, while Brazil cotton areas continue to face frequent rains, slowing soybean harvest and thus safrinha cotton plantings. The forecaster also indicated that cotton areas in eastern Australia have endured hot, dry conditions recently, stressing unirrigated crops. Less heat is expected this week, although precip will continue limited with additional drying expected.
Technical analysis: March cotton futures were able to end the session above the 10-day moving average of 66.83 cents, though lingering resistance at the 20- and 40-day moving averages of 67.27 cents and 68.10 cents will continue to prove difficult to breach. Meanwhile, bears continue to hold onto the near-term technical advantage, with support layered at the 10-day moving average, then at 66.50 cents, 65.30 cents and this week’s low of 65.01 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.