Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.94 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some technical selling pressure and weak long liquidation from the speculators today as the near-term chart posture for May corn has deteriorated after three solid down days in a row. Some risk aversion in the general marketplace today also limited buying interest in the grains, as President Trump said he plans to go ahead with plans to slap new tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Mexican President Sheinbaum reaffirmed her commitment to securing a deal with the U.S. to prevent the imposition of new tariffs on Mexican exports, set to go into effect March 4. Weaker crude oil prices today were a bearish outside-market element for corn, but the weaker U.S. dollar index worked to offset lower oil prices.
Weather in South American corn regions also leans price-bearish. Recent heavy rains across much of Argentina’s heartland are likely to continue over the next few days and mark a “turning point” for soybean and corn crops, said the Rosario Grain Exchange. Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentinian forecasts unchanged at 123 MMT and 46 MMT, respectively, maintaining a neutral bias.
Corn traders are awaiting the U.S. acreage updates from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum held later this week. Traders look for the Forum to project this year’s U.S. corn plantings at 93.5 million acres, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A four-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the February high of $5.11. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the February low of $4.84. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.98 1/2 and then at $5.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.88 1/2 and then at $4.84.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 1 1/4 cents to $10.48 3/4, nearer the high after hitting a five-week low early on. May soybean meal rose $2.10 to $303.00 and nearer the daily high after hitting a nine-week low early on. May soybean oil fell 25 points to 46.05 cents and nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex bulls had a decent day today, given the losses seen in corn and winter wheat futures. A lower U.S. dollar index was supportive for the complex, but lower crude oil prices did limit buying interest in beans, meal and bean oil, as did more of a risk-off trading day in the general marketplace.
South American soybean region weather leans slightly price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said Argentina crop weather “will trend too wet in the interior south and some central crop areas during the next 10 days, resulting in some flooding and some possible damage” to crops. Dryness in far northern parts of the nation may prove to be threatening some minor grain and oilseed production areas. Meantime, Brazil’s weather will remain dry-biased for central and northern Minas Gerais into Bahia and some drying is also expected for a while in the interior southern parts of the nation. Most other areas will get some rain periodically, said World Weather.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soy production forecast by 1 MMT, to 170 MMT, due to recent dryness in southern areas of the nation. He maintains a neutral to slightly lower bias. He left his Argentine forecast at 48 MMT.
Soybean traders are awaiting the U.S. acreage updates from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum held later this week. Traders look for the Forum to project this year’s U.S. soybean plantings at 84.4 million acres, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $10.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.53 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $10.61. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.37 1/4 and then at $10.30.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $315.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $290.80. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $305.50 and then at $308.40. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at today’s low of $298.10.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of 48.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 44.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 46.96 cents and then at this week’s high of 47.38 cents. First support is seen at 45.53 cents and then at 45.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW futures closed 5 3/4 cents lower to $5.87 3/4 and near mid-range. May HRW futures sank 4 cents to $6.05 1/2. May spring wheat futures fell 7 cents to $6.28 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures continued lower for the second consecutive session though technical support limited losses after this morning’s open. Corn continues to lead price action in wheat futures, which is common in February. While fundamentals remain largely supportive for wheat, especially as export sales have picked up the last couple of weeks, it is difficult for price action in wheat to stray far from corn this time of year.
The recent weakness in grain and soy prices as the dollar is trading near three-month lows is a testament to the increasing bearish sentiment across the marketplace. Reports that the Trump administration is likely moving forward with tariffs on Mexico and China are weighing on commodity prices, as both nations purchase a large amount of raw commodities from the U.S., including wheat.
One key that will garner a lot of attention as winter crops exit dormancy is how much arctic temps affected winter crops the past couple of months. There was very little snow cover for much of the winter across U.S. (and even Ukrainian/Russian) winter wheat acres, leaving the crop susceptible to winter kill. World Weather Inc. notes that winter crop damage is likely from Montana and South Dakota to northern Texas, but at this juncture it is difficult to know the extent of the damage.
Technical analysis: May SRW futures saw sustained selling pressure again today. Bears retain a slight advantage on the daily bar chart as recent uptrends have stalled out. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above support at $5.88, which is reinforced by the 40-day moving average at $5.81 1/2, which limited the downside today. Resistance comes in at $5.90 1/4, the 20-day moving average, which is backed by resistance at $5.96 1/2.
May HRW futures fell alongside SRW futures today. Support at $6.00 limited the downside today. Weakness below that mark targets support at $5.95, the 40-day moving average. Bulls are seeking to close prices above resistance at $6.14, the 10-day moving average, which is backed by resistance at $6.27.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 51 points to 67.37 cents and closed near session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures gave up most of yesterday’s gain as traders look forward to this week’s Outlook Forum from USDA. Cotton futures continue to favor the path of least resistance, which remains lower, though there has not been much seller interest below the 67.00 cent mark in May futures. Recent demand has picked up for cotton in the past couple of weeks but the balance sheet remains plentiful and exports still look to come in at the lowest mark in years. The anticipation of the implementation of tariffs next week has traders wary of increasing bullish bets as well. Cotton futures have continued to fall in tandem with the U.S. dollar index, which has been rather disappointing as both flat price is falling and the relative price is falling as other currencies gain value against the USD.
Technical analysis: May cotton futures gave up nearly all of Monday’s gain as prices ended near last week’s lows. Bears continue to maintain the technical advantage. Continued selling targets support at 67.02 cents, which is reinforced by the contract low of 66.25 cents. Resistance lies at 68.00 cents then 68.53 cents, the 40-day moving average, on a bounce.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.