Corn
Price action: May corn futures closed 7 3/4 cents lower to $5.05 and settled on session lows. That marked a 3 3/4 cent loss on the week.
5-day outlook: May corn futures ended the week on a bearish note, negating the gains seen earlier this week. March futures continue to be hindered by psychological $5.00 resistance, but given today’s option expiration and upcoming delivery, traders are likely to be focused on the May contract henceforth. Bulls will be seeking to hold prices above psychological $5.00 support in May futures on continued weakness over the coming week. The technical outlook remains quite supportive as prices persistent in a steep uptrend dating back to the November low on the daily bar chart. Prices did close near support today, so much additional selling pressure would quickly bring prices to a key inflection point.
30-day outlook: Attention will be keyed in on Brazil over the course of the next month, particularly on safrinha plantings. This week, producers are expected to have made a lot of progress in sowing first crop beans and planting second crop corn as gaps between rainfall allowed for favorable fieldwork conditions. Central Brazil trends wetter next week, which is likely to slow the recent rapid pace. As a significant portion of the safrinha crop is expected to be planted on the far side of the ideal window, key will be how long the rainy season persists and how much soil moisture the ground can hold. This past year’s growing season in the U.S. made it abundantly clear how necessary rainfall is in the final month and a half of the crop’s development. Any droughty conditions could quickly take the top end of the Brazilian crop off, which would likely drive additional demand to U.S. origin supplies.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. corn has remained quite strong over the course of the ongoing rally. That was evident in today’s export sales report, where USDA reported weekly export sales of 1.454 MMT for 2024-25, down 12% from the previous week and 5% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and Japan. Sales came in the upper end of expectations ranging from 900,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Exports totaled 1.606 MMT were a marketing year high. While sales were down from a week ago, they were well above levels seen a year ago, and current total commitments (accumulated sales and accumulated shipments) point to a potential beat of the current USDA export estimate. Uncertainty regarding trade policy has likely kept USDA from increasing their export estimate the past couple of months and for good reason—each week brings an onslaught of news regarding trade that is difficult to predict. That uncertainty, along with next month’s Prospective Plantings report, are catalysts that are likely to have a large effect on price action in the coming quarter.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 6 cents to $10.39 1/2 but still rose 3 1/2 cents on the week. March soymeal closed down $1.20 to $294.80 and for the week down $1.10. March soyoil slid 45 points to 46.81 and gained 74 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans ended the week under mild pressure, as outside markets lent no help amid a broad risk-off tone across the marketplace. Export sales data, released first thing this morning, failed to provide support as soybean sales continue to slide seasonally as Brazil’s robust harvest advances, albeit slower than usual. USDA reported export sales for the week ended Feb. 13 totaled 480,300 MT, up noticeably from the previous week, but down 23% from the four-week average, reflecting the seasonal decline. Look for traders to continue to monitor the Brazilian harvest and Argentine weather conditions in the coming week.
30-day outlook: A progressing South American harvest will continue to hold trade attention, especially as the marketplace finalizes acre-buying amid a fast-approaching U.S. planting season. Brazil’s bumper soybean crop could dampen hefty buyer interest as global supplies remain rather comfortable, with preliminary acre estimates certainly favoring corn. However, eroding working capital, relatively robust input prices and mother nature will have the ultimate bearing on 2024-25 acres in the U.S. USDA will conduct its Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum Feb. 27-28, and will release its initial crop projections, which will be followed by USDA’s survey-based Prospective Plantings Report, due out March 31.
90-day outlook: Trade will be the lingering focus as the year progresses, with a particular eye on China as the Trump administration looks to negotiate trade deals with the number soybean importer. While soybean exports will likely continue to wane seasonally amid fresh South American supplies, any progress on trade will certainly prove supportive. U.S. crush will also continue to be closely monitored, with the addition of new plants resulting in record first quarter crush. However, fading crush margins and piling meal inventories are raising some questions around whether the pace will be sustained in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat rose 4 1/2 cents to $5.90, nearer the daily high and for the week down 10 cents. March HRW wheat gained 1 3/4 cents to $6.09 1/4, near mid-range and for the week 12 cents lower. March spring wheat futures fell a penny to $6.31 3/4 but ended the week down 1 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: After seeing some profit taking and chart consolidation this holiday-shortened trading week, the winter wheat market bulls need to get back in gear to keep their near-term price uptrends alive. One area of focus will be on weather in major global wheat-producing regions. World Weather Inc. today said that in HRW wheat country significant warming is expected this weekend as the arctic air mass exits. “High temperatures in the upcoming week will be as much as 80 to 100 degrees warmer than the coldest morning low temperatures of the past few days.” Some more loss of winter hardiness is expected, said World Weather. Below average temperatures will then likely return in the first week of March but not as cold. In the Northern Plains, temperatures will begin to significantly warm up today. A pattern of unusual warmth will then stay throughout most of next week. The snowpack is likely to melt completely in southwestern production areas of the region, but some snow should remain in northeastern areas. Cooling and some new snow are likely in the first week of March. Next week’s USDA annual Ag Outlook Forum will be a major focus for the grain markets.
30-day outlook: USDA today reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 532,700 MT for 2024-25, down 7% from the previous week but up 31% from the four-week average. Sales came in the upper end of expectations. U.S. wheat shipments abroad will have to continue to pick up in the coming weeks in order for the present near-term price uptrends to be extended. U.S. wheat export business will be partially dependent on the value of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index has been trending lower the past few weeks and if that continues it will make U.S. wheat more price-competitive on the world trade scene.
90-day outlook: The major data point for wheat markets in the coming three months will very likely be the late-March USDA quarterly grain stocks and acreage forecasts. The wheat markets will likely continue to require price leadership from corn futures to sustain their own price uptrends over the next several weeks.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 11 points to 66.08 cents but ended the week down 103 points.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures held together rather remarkably today despite no outside market help as the dollar firmed and equities and crude oil futures plummeted. Risk off was the general tone across the marketplace as economic uncertainties loom, though the heavily oversold cotton market seemed to shake off the edginess that was broadly featured to end the week. The National Cotton Council’s prediction of a notable drop in acres combined with recent subpar planting conditions for Brazilian producers could be lending combined support. If the cotton market continues to ignore outside market pressure, it could largely be indicative that short-covering efforts may be imminent.
30-day outlook: Weather in Brazil as the safrinha crop progresses through the growing season along with U.S. weather as the 2025-26 planting season approaches will be the focus over the next month. With cotton acres expected to drop notably, according to the National Cotton Council’s survey conducted in January, will place greater influence on the weather. World Weather Inc. maintains rain will be needed during the second half of winter and early spring in the southwestern desert region, southern California and both South and West Texas to ensure favorable soil moisture for spring planting. Moreover, a few areas in the southeastern U.S. are still drier than usual and need rain as well, with precip in West Texas expected to remain insignificant into the first half of March.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. cotton has continued to prove lackluster throughout the marketing-year, as a robust U.S. dollar and ample global supplies have reduced its competitiveness on the global marketplace. However, less than ideal safrinha planting weather in Brazil could ultimately have an effect on global production from a supply perspective, while demand could increase if the Trump administration is able to successfully negotiate a trade agreement which includes increased cotton purchases. On the contrary, escalating geopolitical tensions and the use of tariffs could ultimate have the opposite effect and would result in a rising U.S. dollar, which would consequently reduce demand for cotton.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.