Corn
Price action: March corn fell 4 1/2 cents to $4.97 1/2, marking a low-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures extended to a fresh for the move high in early trade amid techincal and fund-led buying and support from firming crude oil futures. This week’s move above the psychological $5.00 area to a near nine-month high has reinforced bulls, handing them fresh energy for a move higher. Helping fuel bull efforts are looming uncertainties around South American corn production, most notably in Brazil after recent high-moisture conditions, which delayed safrinha corn plantings in center-west Brazil. A recent drying period has allowed soybean harvest and planting progress to expand, though World Weather Inc. notes increasing rain frequency and significance is likely to return after this weekend.
Meanwhile, robust demand hopes linger with Bloomberg reporting Thailand’s feed industry is pitching to buy about $2.8 billion worth of agricultural commodities annually from the U.S. as opposed to other suppliers, as the country seeks to narrow its $35 billion trade surplus and head off possible tariffs on its own exports. However, on the flipside, Brazil is pushing back against the Trump administration’s complaints regarding ethanol tariffs by highlighting the lack of reciprocal access for Brazilian sugar in the U.S. market. Brazilian officials argue that any discussions of fair trade should include addressing the high tariffs and quotas.
Technical analysis: Bulls continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage, with prices in a near three-month old uptrend on the daily barchart. Initial resistance will serve at $5.00, with the next price objective for bulls is to close above chart resistance at $5.08 1/4. Bears look to hold a close below chart support at $4.72 1/2. Additional resistance will serve at $5.15, then at this week’s low of $4.93 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 6 3/4 cents to $10.31 3/4, nearer the daily low. March soybean meal rose 90 cents to $294.70 and near mid-range. March soybean oil fell 100 points to 46.30 cents, near the session low after hitting a three-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and soybean meal futures markets continue to languish in the lower portions of their recent sideways trading ranges. A firmer U.S. dollar index today helped to limit buying interest in the soy complex, as did lower corn and wheat futures prices.
Soybean traders are continuing to keep an eye on weather in South American soybean regions. World Weather Inc. today said Argentina rainfall “has helped to slow the deterioration of crops, although there will be need for greater rainfall in some areas.” Central parts of the nation are wettest and will remain that way for a while early this week before drying out. “Additional rain next week should restore the best crop and field conditions. Southern Argentina will remain too dry for another few days and then some relief may finally arrive.” Northern Argentina received some welcome rain recently, said World Weather. Meantime, Brazil’s outlook calls for net drying from Sao Paulo and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul to Bahia where crop stress is expected for some dryland summer crops. These areas will trend wetter next week. Rain in southern Brazil recently was great for crop areas that had been trending too dry recently, but the area is expected to dry down once again in this next seven days, said World Weather.
The weekly USDA U.S. export sales report will be delayed by one day until Friday morning, due to the federal holiday on Monday.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at the February high of $10.79 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.47 3/4 and then at $10.60. First support is seen at the February low of $10.24 and then at $10.18 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $285.10. First resistance comes in at $300.00 and then at $303.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $291.60 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the November 2024 high of 49.38 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 44.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 47.00 cents and then at today’s high of 48.09 cents. First support is seen at 46.00 cents and then at 45.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat tumbled 12 3/4 cents to $5.92, while March HRW closed down 13 1/2 cents at $6.13 3/4, each closing nearer the session low. March HRS futures fell a nickel to $6.36.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures faced corrective pressure after a run at the 200-day moving average for the third straight session, while a firmer U.S. dollar also generally hovered over commodities. Meanwhile, weather in wheat-growing regions across the globe and technical support should limit notable selling in the near-term.
World Weather Inc. reports that some crop damage has possibly occurred recently in South Dakota due to bitter cold and no snow cover in the past week. There is some concern over possible crop damage today in southwestern Kansas, southeastern Colorado and in a few areas south into the Texas Panhandle. The forecaster indicates no crop damage occurred recently in Russia, Ukraine or western Kazakhstan since the coldest temps were in snow covered areas. The same trend is expected most of this week, but there are some snow free areas nearby that could be damaged if temperatures get colder than expected. For now, winterkill is not very likely. In Europe, winter crops are mostly dormant and no threatening cold is expected in snow free areas, though this the situation still needs closely monitored.
Technical analysis: Bulls continue to hold the near-term technical advantage in March SRW futures, though continue to face resistance at the 200-day moving average $6.00 1/2 and continue to focus on forging a close above the level as well as the Oct. high of $6.39. Meanwhile, bears’ next objective is to close prices below technical support at last week’s low of $5.71 ½, with interim resistance layered at this week’s low of $5.93 1/4 and then at $5.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 127 points to 66.24 cents and near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market bears today affirmed their near-term control over the market, as prices saw solid selling pressure despite the National Cotton Council’s (NCC) weekend release of its 2025-26 acreage estimates that showed U.S. producers intend to plant 9.6 million acres to cotton this year, which would be a 14.5% drop from last year. It’s never a good sign when a market sells off following bullish fundamental news. However, the NCC has a recent history of coming in light on its U.S. acreage forecasts.
A firmer U.S. dollar index today was also a negative outside-market influence on cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. cotton country, “rain will be needed during the second half of winter and early spring in the southwestern desert region, southern California and both South and West Texas to ensure favorable soil moisture for spring planting. A few areas in the southeastern U.S. are still drier than usual and need rain as well. The U.S. Delta will be wettest for a while along with “portions” of the interior southeast. West Texas precipitation will remain insignificant into the first half of March, said the forecaster.
Weekly USDA export sales will be out Friday morning, delayed by one day due to the federal holiday on Monday.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 65.01 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 67.97 cents. First support is seen at 66.00 cents and then at 65.56 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.