Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 5 3/4 cents to $5.02, nearer the session high and hit a nearly 10-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market bulls were off to the races to start this U.S. holiday-shortened trading week. Fund-led buying and chart-based buying from the speculators have been featured as the near-term technical posture for corn has markedly improved.
USDA reported solid U.S. corn export inspections of 1.6 MMT for the week ended Feb. 13, up 256,244 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of trade expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said Argentina rainfall “has helped to slow the deterioration of crops, although there will be a need for greater rainfall in some areas. Central parts of the nation are wettest and will remain that way for a while early this week before drying out for a while. Additional rain next week should restore the best crop and field conditions.” Southern Argentina will remain too dry for another week and then some relief may finally arrive. Northern Argentina received some welcome rain during the weekend and it will continue into Tuesday. Meantime, Brazil’s outlook calls for net drying from Sao Paulo and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul to Bahia where crop stress is expected for some summer crops. Rain in southern Brazil “will be great for those crop areas trending too dry recently,” said the forecaster.
Pro Farmer South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier this week cut his Argentine corn production forecast by 1 MMT, to 46 MMT, due to irregular rainfall across the country and high temps. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn crop forecast at 123 MMT.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A four-month-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.08 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.81 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.08 1/4 and then at $5.15. First support is seen at $5.00 and then at today’s low of $4.93 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 2 1/2 cents to $10.38 1/2, marking a high-range close, while March meal fell $2.10 to $293.80. March soyoil rallied 123 points to 47.30, forging a three-month high close.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans posted modest gains in consolidative trade as technical resistance and a firmer U.S. dollar pared gains along with weaker-than-expected export inspections and NOPA crush data. Meanwhile, improving weather in central Brazil has allowed harvest to advance, with AgRural reporting efforts advanced to 23% complete as of last Thursday, with notable progress in Mato Grosso. However, harvest remained well behind 32% on this date last year.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian soybean forecast of 171 MMT amid lesser concerns about delays with soybean harvest, though he did reduce his Argentine soybean estimate by 1 MMT to 48 MMT. Cordonnier noted irregular rainfall, high temps and continued decline in soybean condition and indicated a neutral to lower bias toward the crop.
Meanwhile, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported January crush earlier today, which came in at 200.383 million bushels, down 6.221 million bushels from December. That was a record for the month and the all-time second highest, though it was bearish against expectations. Crush was above January 2024 crush by 14.603 million bushels (7.9%). NOPA soyoil stocks totaled 1,274 million pounds, up 38.166 million pounds from last month’s figure.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly export inspection data, which showed net inspections of 720,332 MT (26.5 million bu.) for the week ended Feb. 13, down 377,113 MT and short of the pre-report range of 875,000 MT to 1.25 MMT.
Technical analysis: March soybeans spent the session trading mostly between the 10-day moving average of $10.46 1/2 and the 40-day moving average of $10.27 3/4. Bull efforts may continue to be dampened, as additional resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $10.50 1/4, then at the 200-day moving average, currently trading at $10.64 3/4. Conversely, near-term oversold conditions could limit the downside, along with support at the 100-day moving average of $10.22 1/2.
March meal futures held an inside range, with support serving at $291.80, while resistance stood at the 10-day moving average of $300.40. A move above initial resistance will face additional headwinds at the 20-, 40- and 100-day moving averages, layered from $303.60 to $306.10. Conversely, bears’ next objective is to hold a close back below the Dec. 19 low of $285.10, though interim support lies at $287.80 and $283.40.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW futures climbed 4 3/4 cents to $6.04 3/4 and closed nearer session highs. March HRW futures closed 6 cents higher at $6.27 1/4, near session highs. March spring wheat futures rose 7 1/2 cents to $6.41.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat followed the corn market higher today, with winter wheat contracts marking four-month highs. Historically, wheat futures tend to follow the corn market in the month of February. That has certainly been the case this year, much to wheat bulls’ benefit. Still, wheat fundamentals remain quite bullish, as the world balance sheet remains rather tight, particularly among the world’s top exporters. This week’s arctic temperatures across the U.S. as well as Russian and Ukraine draws some concerns for winter kill as well. Below zero temps are expected to weigh on crop conditions in South Dakota, says World Weather Inc. Snow cover in HRW areas ands well as the Midwest and northern Delta are expected to have protected winter crops, but sparse cover over some regions could have led to some degradation of the crop.
USDA reported wheat export inspections of 249,812 MT (9.2 million bu.) for the week ended Feb. 13, down 320,486 MT from the previous week and below the pre-report range of 300,000 MT to 500,000 MT. Wheat inspections have been alternating between weeks of impressive and disappointing inspections, averaging out to normal levels. Historically, inspections could increase this time of year, something we have not yet seen.
Technical analysis: March SRW futures climbed to fresh for-the-move highs before facing some profit-taking. Bulls continue to hold the near-term technical advantage. Tentative support comes in at the psychological $6.00 mark, while continued selling finds support at the 200-day moving average at $5.91 1/2. Initial resistance stands at today’s high of $6.09, while continued strength has bulls looking to overcome resistance at the Oct. 18 high of $6.15 3/4.
March HRW futures surged higher today and closed at four-month highs as bulls continue to maintain the technical advantage. Bulls are looking to overcome stiff resistance at the Oct. 3 high of $6.38 1/4, which capped the upside in the fall rally. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $6.14 3/4 on a reversal lower, which is reinforced by support at $6.07 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 40 points to 67.51 cents, ending the session above the 40-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures gapped higher in overnight trade following the National Cotton Council’s (NCC) release of its 2025-26 acreage estimates over the weekend. The survey showed U.S. producers intend to plant 9.6 million acres to cotton this year, which would be a 14.5% drop from last year. Harvested area was estimated at 7.8 million acres. The NCC questionnaire was mailed in January to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt and returns were collected through the end of January.
Outside markets held a mixed tone, though rallying crude oil helped underpin cotton futures throughout the session, while the U.S. dollar was firmer amid sentiments of lingering inflation and thus higher-for-longer interest rates. Improving weather conditions in South America were also somewhat of a limiting factor, as northern Argentina is receiving rain, which has ended a period of significant stress. Additional rain is forthcoming into Wednesday morning, according to World Weather Inc. Meanwhile, Brazil cotton areas have seen less frequent and less intensive rain recently, and that may continue for a while. However, totally dry weather is not likely in Mato Grosso where more delays in fieldwork are possible periodically, which is bad for recently planted cotton, but late season planting needs to conclude quickly and some drier weather for a week would be welcome.
Technical analysis: March cotton bulls were able to end the session above the 40-day moving average, currently trading at 67.49 cents, though an extension higher will be limited by further resistance at 68.05 cents and 68.37 cents. Meanwhile, bears will continue to seek to close prices below the Feb. 3 low of 65.01 cents, with interim support serving at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of 66.82 cents and 66.75 cents, which are backed by 66.47 cents and 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.