Corn
Advice: We advise corn hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 20% of 2024-crop production to get to 70% sold in the cash market. We also advise all corn producers to sell another 10% of expected 2025-crop production to get to 20% forward sold for harvest delivery.
Price action: March corn futures closed 2 3/4 cents higher to $4.96 1/4, marking a 5 1/4-cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures made fresh for-the-move highs but failed to overcome psychological $5.00 resistance, with the daily high coming just a tick below that mark. For over two weeks now, March futures have flirted with trading at $5.00, with each test spurring profit-taking. This time appears to be no different, as March corn closed a few cents off intraday highs. The coming week offers very little catalysts in terms of scheduled reports, but attention will remain keyed in on additional news regarding trade. Technicals continue to support higher prices but bulls’ failure to even test the psychological $5.00 mark today is indicative of potential profit-taking to start the week on Tuesday, as markets will be closed Monday due to the federal holiday.
30-day outlook: Attention will continue to be keyed in on Brazil over the coming month. A break between showers is expected to allow harvesting of first crop beans and planting of safrinha corn in the coming week. Most of Brazil’s beans are generally harvested in mid-February and that looks to be the case again this year. Brazil has also shown how rapidly they can get their crops harvested, which is likely allowing most of the safrinha crop to be planted within the ideal window. Once corn is planted, attention will quickly turn to weather and how long the seasonal rainy season continues, any inclination that rains will dry up earlier than usual would likely spur some strength in corn futures.
90-day outlook: The strength seen in corn prices over the past couple of months, especially when compared to soybeans, is likely to bring acres higher year-over-year in the March Prospective Plantings report from USDA. Still, input costs remain high, which could lead to more soy plantings than many expect. If corn acres rise near the 95 million-acre mark, it could weigh on prices as the market anticipates an onslaught of supplies later in the year, but if there is a more modest increase, it could prove price supportive. In the latter half of the outlook, the market will be keyed in on plantings and just how quickly the U.S. crop gets in the ground.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 20% of 2024-crop production to get to 70% sold in the cash market. Also sell another 10% of expected 2025-crop production to get to 20% forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 20% of 2024-crop production to get to 70% sold. Also sell another 10% of expected 2025-crop production to get to 20% forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybean futures rose 6 cents to $10.36, near mid-range and on the week down 13 1/2 cents. March soybean meal futures gained $3.20 to $295.90, near mid-range and on the week down $5.50. March soybean oil futures fell 18 points to 46.07 cents, near mid-range and for the week up 8 points.
5-day outlook: Soy complex traders will come back from a three-day holiday weekend Tuesday and gauge any new developments on the U.S. trade policy front, after recent tariff threats from the Trump administration. Tuesday also brings the monthly NOPA crush report, which is expected to show a slight decrease in crush from the previous month.
World Weather Inc. today said central and northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, southwestern Paraguay and southern Brazil “will all receive significant rain in the coming few days, bolstering soil moisture after a period of stress in recent weeks. Some of the precipitation falls a little late for saving yields and production in early season crops. However, late season crops will benefit.” Meantime, less rain and greater sunshine in center-south Brazil “will be great” for soybean harvesting. Mato Grosso, Brazil will remain wet at times through the weekend, keeping field progress sluggish.
30-day outlook: The first week of February saw U.S. soybean sales fall 74% below the four-week average. That likely reflected heavier supplies coming out of South America. The potential for persistently vigorous Brazilian exports in the coming weeks may cap soybean complex futures’ rally attempts.
90-day outlook: The late-March quarterly grain stocks and U.S. planted acreage reports from USDA will be the major data points for the period and likely set the tone for soy futures price action into spring planting. The trajectory of the U.S. dollar index will also be closely monitored. The USDX today hit a two-month low and prices are now trending down. Continued price pressure on the dollar index would be a bullish element for the soybean markets, as such would make U.S. soy products more price-competitive on the world trade markets.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Advice: We advise wheat hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 15% of 2024-crop production to get to 85% sold in the cash market.
Price action: March SRW surged 22 1/4 cents to $6.00 and settled near session high, gaining 17 1/4 cents on the week. March HRW futures gained 23 cents to $6.21 1/4, rallying 17 cents on the week. March HRS futures closed 16 1/4 cents higher, marking a 5 1/4-cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: Winter wheat futures led strength across the grain and soy complex today, pushing prices into the upper ends of the recent ranges. March SRW futures quickly went from the bottom end of the range that has capped price action since late January to the upper end of the range in today’s trade. That, paired with today’s rally stalling at the psychological $6.00 mark point to likely consolidation next week. That could be interrupted by a ceasefire in the Russia and Ukraine conflict or news regarding trade though, as both have seen an uptick in chatter over the past week. Some sources see a conclusion of the Russia and Ukraine conflict as bullish, as the war has led Russia to dump wheat on the world market in an effort to fund the war effort while a conclusion to the conflict could slow Russian exports.
30-day outlook: As temperatures rise seasonally over the coming month and the U.S. winter wheat crop emerges from dormancy, a close eye will be on how arctic temps over the winter fared on the winter crop. In January, cold fronts and arctic temps worked through the Plains with very little snow cover. The same thing happened in early February. How winter crops fared through that period should be better known over the next month. The state by state crop conditions released on March 1 will give some insight, while nation-wide ratings will likely begin towards the end of March.
90-day outlook: Export sales picked up this week after disappointing sales for the preceding weeks. USDA continues to anticipate sales jumping sharply year-over-year, but recent poor sales have called that claim to question. U.S. wheat saw increased purchases from Mexico and some countries in eastern Asia. If increased sales continue, especially as Russian exports slow, prices could continue to work higher over the coming quarter despite it being a historically weak period historically.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 15% of 2024-crop production to get to 85% sold in the cash market. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 15% of 2024-crop production to get to 85% sold. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures rose 28 points to 67.11 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week up 148 points.
5-day outlook: Cotton market traders will come back from a three-day holiday weekend Tuesday morning to closely scrutinize the weekend U.S. cotton planted acreage figures released by the National Cotton Council. Weekly export sales numbers improved in early February but remain weaker, overall. While early-February price gains in cotton futures suggest an attempt to buy acreage, the cotton bulls cannot seem to put together a string of stronger trading days to break the price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said rain will be needed during the second half of winter and early spring in the U.S. southwestern desert region, southern California and both south and west Texas “to ensure favorable soil moisture for spring planting.” A few areas in the southeastern U.S. are still drier-than-usual and need rain as well. “The U.S. Delta will be wettest for a while along with portions of the interior southeastern U.S.West Texas precipitation in the coming week “will be too light to have a lasting impact,” said the forecaster.
90-day outlook: The macro elements will play a critical role in the trajectory of cotton prices in the coming few months. The Trump administration and its disruptive polices on trade and domestic issues has prompted a wobble in the stock market, although the major indexes have recovered and are back near their record highs. Also, the downtrending U.S. dollar index that today hit a two-month low is a positive element for more competitive cotton exports down the road. On the negative side, crude oil prices are trending lower, which is a bearish omen for much of the raw commodity sector in the coming weeks. This is particularly true for cotton, since artificial fibers that compete with cotton are largely made from petroleum products.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.