Corn
Price action: March corn rose a nickel to $4.35, a near two-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were able to extend above 40- and 10-day moving averages, amid a generally corrective tone across the ag complex as the U.S. dollar index traded lower today. Moreover, USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report was also supportive, with sales totaling 1.7 MMT during the week ended Nov. 28. Net sales jumped 63% from the previous week and 4% from the four-week average and easily topped analysts’ pre-report range of 750,000 MT to 1.5 MMT. Meanwhile, exports during the week totaled 1.045 MMT.
The marketplace is keeping a close eye on weather in South America. Weather in Brazil continues to prove mostly favorable, though northern areas of the country will need greater rain soon, according to World Weather Inc. Conversely, heavy rains are expected from central Paraguay, Santa Catarina and northern Rio Grande do Sul Friday into Monday, with some local flooding possible. The forecaster reports a large part of Argentina will need greater rain late this month.
Technical analysis: March corn ended the session just shy of the session high and above the 40- and 10-day moving averages and short of the 20-day moving average, currently trading at $4.35 1/2, which will now serve as initial resistance. Meanwhile, the former will serve as initial support and will be backed by support at 4.28 1/2, the 100-day moving average of $4.27 1/2, as well as $4.24 1/2 and the Oct. 17 low of $4.14. Conversely, a push above the 20-day moving average will find bulls facing minimal resistance until reaching the Nov. 8 high of $4.47 3/4, which is backed by the 200-day moving average and Oct. 2 high of $4.52 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybean futures surged a dime to $9.93 3/4 and closed on session highs. January meal futures sank 60 cents to $287.4. January bean oil futures rallied 89 points to 42.12 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures saw corrective strength today but continued in the near-term sideways trend. Weakness in the U.S. dollar index supported commodities today. The dollar continues to face profit-taking from the late November high. Some strength in the euro, spurred by corrective buying from a two-year low, has created headwinds for the dollar.
Chinese importers are scaling back purchases of Canadian canola with shipments from December likely to plunge as most buyers are reluctant to sign new deals for fear that Beijing could impose retaliatory anti-dumping duties, Reuters reported. China is likely to supplement falling Canadian canola imports by importing canola from Australia and utilizing soybeans.
Export demand continues to prove robust for soybeans, though that has done little to spur strength in futures. Traders continue to anticipate increased tariffs from Trump’s return to the White House and anticipated record Brazilian production to weigh heavily on soybean prices. USDA reported daily sales of 136,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year. For the week ended Nov. 28, export sales totaled 2.313 MMT, which were down 7% from the previous week but up 17% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations from 1.1 MMT to 2.5 MMT.
Technical analysis: January soybean futures saw persistent strength throughout today’s session and closed near the upper end of the recent sideways range. Bears still hold the overall technical advantage, but recent sideways trade suggests a near-term market bottom could be at hand. Bulls are targeting a close above 20-day moving average resistance at $9.93 1/2 before eyeing a test of psychological $10.00 resistance. The 10-day moving average at $9.89 3/4 marks tentative support, which is backed firmly by uptrend support at $9.83.
January meal futures saw modest weakness despite soy strength today as bears retain the technical advantage. The downside has been largely limited in the past three-weeks, an encouraging sign for bulls. The 10-day moving average continues to mark initial resistance at $291.7 and is backed by resistance at $294.1. The contract low of $287.0 continues to serve up solid support, while tentative resistance lies at $289.4 on the way.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat rose 10 cents to $5.58 1/4 and near the session high. March HRW wheat rose 10 cents to $5.52 1/2, near the session high. March spring wheat futures rose 9 cents to $5.98 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some short covering today after hitting contract lows earlier this week. A lower U.S. dollar index was a friendly outside market for wheat futures today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 378,200 MT, up 3% from the previous week but down 10% from the four-week average. Sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country limited precipitation is expected in the next seven days. “Any moisture will be mainly in southwestern areas Monday into Tuesday with snow and a little rain. If the orientation of this weather disturbance in the upper atmosphere changes some, it could lead to greater precipitation. However, the chance of that as of right now is slight.” No significant cold weather is expected in the next two weeks and temperatures will be generally above average more often than below, said the forecaster. In the northern Plains, there will be some melting of the region’s generally thin snow cover this weekend due to unusually warm temperatures. Some new snow is expected Sunday into early Monday, but there will be a need for greater snowfall to protect crops from potentially extreme cold air later in winter, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Two-month-old price downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.42. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.70. First support is seen at $5.50 and then at the contract low of $5.40 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.77 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.70. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.35 and then at $5.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures rose 15 points to 71.10 cents, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures continue to undergo persistent selling pressure as prices struggle to overcome technical resistance stemming from the mid-October highs. Cotton prices have struggled to garner much bullish momentum despite the recent decline in the U.S. dollar index, which has suffered persistent weakness over the past couple of weeks. While export demand has increased in the past few weeks, total commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) continue to run at the lowest clip since 2015/16. Sales were impressive the past two weeks but for the week ended Nov. 28 export sales totaled 174,400 bales, down 48% from the previous week and 34% from the four-week average. The anticipation for weak exports, which makes up the vast majority of cotton use, has continued to provide headwinds for cotton bulls.
Technical analysis: March cotton futures tried and failed to rally today as bears continue to maintain the technical advantage. Downtrend resistance stemming from the mid-October high continues to serve up solid resistance at 71.55 cents. That is quickly backed by the 40-day moving average at 71.84 cents. Support comes in at 71.00 cents then this week’s low of 70.38 cents, which is quickly backed by the psychological 70.00 cent mark.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.