Corn
Price action: March corn fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.30, ending near the session low and below the 40-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures extended modestly lower as technical resistance and a general risk-off tone hovered across the ag complex. Global economic uncertainties loom following upheaval in South Korea after its president declared emergency martial law and then reversed it, along with France’s no-confidence vote, which was successful today.
Meanwhile, weakness in the U.S. dollar seemingly had little effect on today’s price action. Traders are likely also reeling amid news Mexico expects a decision by Dec. 14 in the U.S. challenge to its ban on GMO corn imports for food use in an announcement from the country’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard. The case, brought under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), concerns Mexico’s restriction on white corn imports, which it claims to be self-sufficient in producing. The U.S. argues the policy could disrupt trade and potentially affect GMO yellow corn used for feed. Despite the pending ruling, Mexico may choose to maintain its policy even if the panel rules against it. Ebrard described USMCA as the “best deal the region ever had.”
The Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production averaged 1.073 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Nov. 29, down 46,000 bpd (4.1%) from the previous week’s record and 3,000 bpd (0.3%) below the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose 134,000 barrels to 23.004 million barrels.
Early Thursday morning, USDA will detail weekly export sales for the week ended Nov. 28. Analysts are expecting net corn sales to have ranged from 750,000 MT to 1.5 MMT during the week. Last week, net sales totaled 1.06 MMT, down 29% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: March corn ended the session back below the 40-day moving average of $4.31 1/2 and support at $4.30 1/4. Initial support will now serve at $4.28, then at the 100-day moving average of $4.27 1/2, again at $4.25 and the October low of $4.14. Conversely, initial resistance will now stand at the 40- and 10-day moving averages, then at the 20-day moving average of $4.35 3/4, $4.38 $4.40 and the Nov. high of $4.47 3/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 8 cents to $9.83 3/4, nearer the daily low mid-range. January soybean meal rose $1.50 to $291.90 and near the session high. January soybean oil fell 72 points to 41.42 cents and nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures continue to grind sideways at lower price levels, with buyer interest limited by the threat of U.S. trade tariffs crimping global demand for U.S. ag products, including beans. The bearish chart postures in soybean meal and bean oil are also keeping speculative bulls away from the bean market and the products.
USDA this morning reported a daily U.S. soyoil sale of 30,000 MT to South Korea for 2024-25. The bean oil market bulls got no traction from the reported sale.
World Weather Inc. today said South America soybean region weather “has been and will likely continue to be mostly good over the next two weeks. Southern Brazil will become too wet for a while and Argentina will dry out, but neither issue is expected to fester into a viable crop concern.” There is also some potential for weeks two and three of the outlook to be drier than usual in some central Brazil crop areas, “and that may need to be more closely monitored,” said the forecaster.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 1.1 million to 2.5 million MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of zero to 75,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are strong chart support levels that lie just below current prices. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $10.44. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $9.73 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.00 and then at $10.12 3/4. First support is seen at $9.73 1/2 and then at $9.60.
The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $304.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $275.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $293.70 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $287.10 and then at $280.00.
Soybean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at 45.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 37.83 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 42.29 cents and then at this week’s high of 42.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 41.27 cents and then at this week’s low of 41.01 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat rose 3/4 cent to $5.48 1/4, while March HRW futures rose 3/4 cent to $5.42 1/2, each closing near the session high. March HRS wheat closed down 1/2 cent to $5.89 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: March SRW wheat futures climbed from a fresh contract low, carved at midmorning, as the U.S. dollar faced pressure and short-covering efforts ensued. Global supply concerns are resurfacing as Russia’s winter crop was rated 37% poor, an unprecedented level, according to analysts from ProZerna who cited state weather forecasting agency data. Analysts said 31% of the crop was in good condition, compared to 74% last year. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall in Australia has reportedly affected the country’s bumper wheat harvest, causing widespread quality downgrades. Between 2.5 MMT and 5.0 MMT of wheat across Australia’s southeaster growing regions were downgraded to animal feed from milling quality.
USDA will detail weekly export sales data early Thursday morning. Analysts are expecting net sales to range from 250,000 to 550,000 MT. Last week, net sales totaled 366,800 MT, down 33% from the previous week and 15% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: March SRW wheat futures rebounded from the fresh contract low forged this morning but still ended above resistance at $5.49 3/4. Moreover, an extension above the level could prove difficult near term amid stiff resistance at the 10-, 20, 40- and 100-day moving averages, layered from $5.55 3/4 to $5.84 1/2. Conversely, initial support will continue to serve at $5.43 1/4, $5.39 1/4 and $5.32 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 2 points to 71.25 cents and near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market continues to languish not far above this year’s lowest price levels. A relatively strong dollar and ideas of weaker demand coming from China in the coming months has limited speculator buying interest. However, sellers have also been timid lately amid a booming U.S. stock market that saw the major indexes this week hit record highs.
Cotton traders took note today that the OECD warned of dangers regarding world trade and debt. The agency said the global economy is expected to grow modestly in 2025 and 2026. However, the OECD warned there are increasing risks related to rising trade tensions and protectionism. The potential trade rifts among major economies may keep the cotton market bulls squelched.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report will be closely scrutinized by cotton traders. Bulls are hoping for continued better U.S. cotton sales abroad, after the past two weeks have shown good export sales numbers, including new buying from India and Pakistan.
World Weather Inc. today said late-season harvest conditions across the U.S. will be relatively good. Crop maturation and harvesting in northern India and Pakistan has advanced well this year and little change is expected. Southern India’s crops are in very good condition as well. Recent rain and that which is coming in the next week to 10 days in Australia’s eastern dryland crop region of New South Wales and Queensland will improve planting, emergence and establishment conditions, said the forecaster. Rain in Argentina periodically through the coming two weeks will be good for cotton planting, emergence and establishment, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, stiff support levels lie below present prices. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 74.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 67.90 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 72.15 cents at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 70.38 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.