Corn
Price action: March corn fell 1/2 cent to $4.32 1/2, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures held an inside range to begin the week, limited by technical resistance, a fading soy complex and strong gains in the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, USDA reported weekly export inspection data around midmorning, which showed net corn inspections of 935,859 MT (36.8 million bu.) during the week ended Nov. 28, which were down 73,008 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations from 650,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. While volumes were down on the week, they continue to run above average levels and 31% ahead of year-ago.
In South America, weather continues to prove generally favorable for planting and crop establishment, which is a trend that should persist over the next two weeks, according to World Weather Inc. All areas will get rain at one time or another and sufficient moisture is expected to support crops through the first half of December.
Following the close, USDA will release its Grain Crushings Report, which will detail corn-for-ethanol use in October. Analysts expect corn-for-ethanol use to total 462.3 million bu., up 22.1 million bu. (5.0%) from September and 2.3 million bu. (0.5%) above year ago.
Technical analysis: March corn futures continued to face resistance at the 40-, 10- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading at $4.32 3/4, $4.34 1/2 and $4.35 1/2, while the 100-day moving average of $4.27 1/4 served up support. Bulls and bears are on a level playing field, with bulls looking to secure a close above the November high of $4.47 3/4, while bears are looking to push prices below chart support at $4.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybean futures fell 4 1/4 cents to $9.85 1/4 though settled well off session lows. January meal futures dropped $4.0 to $287.9, a contract low close. January bean oil futures sunk 32 points to 41.42 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Selling was featured in the soybean complex today as soybeans and each product continue to languish near recent lows despite continued signs of robust demand for U.S. origin beans. Soybean futures led weakness in the ag complex today despite USDA reporting a daily sale of another 134,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year. On Friday, USDA reported daily sales of 991,700 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year. The continued signs of strong export demand have been negated by concerns over upcoming trade policy and anticipation of a bumper South American crop. Aside from time, not much is going to negate the former point, while AgRural reporting Brazilian soybean planting as 91% completed as of last Thursday, the fastest clip since 2018, keeps concerns lingering over the latter point.
Rain fell on much of Brazil and Paraguay during the weekend with the driest areas from central Paraguay to central Mato Grosso do Sul benefitting most from the rain, says World Weather Inc. However, cool winds blowing off the coast of South America are expected to bring colder than usual water to the surface of the Pacific Ocean, which raises the potential for ocean cooling enough to induce the start of La Nina conditions, but the cooling would need to be sustained for several weeks to induce a full blown event, says World Weather Inc. The return of La Nina could bring drier weather back to Brazil, limiting production, particularly for later planted or second crops.
USDA will release monthly Oilseed Crushings this afternoon. Analysts expect USDA to report U.S. processors crushed an all-time record 210.6 million bu. of soybeans in October. That would be up 24.1 million bu. (12.9%) from September and 9.2 million bu. (4.6%) above year-ago.
Technical analysis: January soybean futures ended the day lower as prices continue to trade sideways near recent lows. Bears continue to hold the near-term technical advantage as they try to overcome initial support at $9.80, which is reinforced by the contract low of $9.73 1/2. Resistance comes in at the 10-day moving average at $9.89 3/4 then the psychological $10.00 mark on resurgent strength.
January meal futures marked a fresh for-the-move low close as bears retain the technical advantage. Prices have largely trended sideways for the past two weeks. The contract low of $287.0 marks initial support, which is reinforced by support at $285.3. Resistance stands at $291.4 then the 20-day moving average at $295.1 on a bounce.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 20% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 20% sold on 2024-crop.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat fell 3/4 cent to $5.47 1/4 and near mid-range. March HRW wheat dipped 1/4 cent to $5.40 1/2 and near mid-range after hitting a contract low early on. March HRS futures sunk 4 cents to $5.87 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets continue to languish at lower price levels. Today’s solid gains in the U.S. dollar index kept most would-be wheat bulls on the sidelines.
Wheat bulls got no traction today from reports Russia’s wheat export quota from Feb. 15 to June 30 will be 11 MMT, according to the Eurasian Economic Union Council. That’s well below the 29 MMT in the same period in 2024.
USDA today reported tepid U.S. wheat export inspections of 296,106 MT (10.0 million bu.) for the week ended Nov. 28. That’s down 68,677 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of pre-report expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas benefited from recent weeks of rain, “with good root and tiller systems suspected in many production areas.” Cooler temperatures are pushing most U.S. crops in the Midwest and central Plains into dormancy. Crops farther to the north are already dormant or semi-dormant, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Two-month-old price downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $5.42. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $5.53 1/4 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at $5.42 and then at $5.30.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.77 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.35 and then at $5.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market for 2024 crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold for the 2024 crop. You should also be 20% sold for harvest delivery for expected 2025-crop.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 44 points to 71.49 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures continued to face pressure from U.S. dollar strength and looming technical resistance to begin the week and seasonally bullish month. The natural fiber has advanced well off the Nov. 19 low, though resistance at the 100- and 40-day moving averages is keeping buyer interest limited. However, the marketplace is likely proceeding with caution ahead of Friday’s monthly Jobs report.
As the U.S. harvest winds down, World Weather Inc. maintains late-season harvest across the U.S. will be relatively good. However, rain is expected in the southeastern states this weekend and into early next week. In western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, conditions will be mostly dry over the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance around a few infrequent and light showers. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend and south Texas will see daily rounds of showers through Sunday, with some beneficial increases in soil moisture resulting from the precip.
Technical analysis: March cotton spent the session trading mostly between resistance at the 100-day moving average of 72.08 cents and the 10-day moving average of 70.45 cents. However, an extension higher will face additional resistance at the 40-day moving average of 72.44 cents and again at 72.71 cents and 73.27 cents. Conversely, a move below the 10-day will find additional support at 70.00 cents and the Nov. 19 low of 68.40 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.