Corn
Price action: May corn fell 5 1/4 cents to $4.85, ending the session near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were correctively lower to begin the week, notching the first decline in seven sessions, as spillover selling stemmed from wheat futures despite extended weakness in the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, evidence of export demand continued with a daily sale of 120,000 MT reported to Japan during 2024-25. USDA also reported its weekly Export Inspection Report, which proved rather noteworthy, with net inspections totaling 1.83 MMT (72 million bu.) during the week ended April 10. Inspections rose 215,540 MT from the previous week and were well above pre-report expectations ranging from 1.0 MMT to 1.6 MMT.
However, expectations of a potentially larger Ukrainian crop, could have been a limiting factor in today’s trade. Analyst APK-Inform said the country’s 2025 grain harvest could increase by 8% to 57.5 MMT, due to a larger corn crop of 29.2 MMT, which would be 18% more than 2024. The consultancy also noted Ukrainian exports could increase by 11% to 42.6 MMT in 2025-26, including 24.5 MMT of corn.
In Brazil, rain is expected in center west and northern center south areas during the coming week to ten days, which will provide sufficient moisture to continue supporting northern safrinha and other late-season crops. However, drying in southern parts of center south and far southern Brazil may lead to greater need for rain later this month.
World Weather Inc. indicates that the U.S. will see mostly dry conditions through Friday in the Ohio River Basin, outside of some light showers, while the remainder of the Midwest sees little precip through Wednesday, with some planting likely in the west where the soil is dry enough to allow for some fieldwork. Though a wet weather pattern will occur Thursday into at least April 22 across the Midwest, keeping conditions for fieldwork poor in areas that receive heavy rain earlier this month while some planting likely occurs in the west.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Report following the close, with analysts expecting 6% of the corn crop to be planted as of April 13.
Technical analysis: May corn gapped lower overnight and held an inside day, with resistance serving at last Friday’s high of $4.90 3/4, though bulls continue to hold the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective is $5.00, while bears look to secure a close below support at $4.70. Initial resistance will remain at last week’s high, then at $4.93 1/2 and $4.96 1/2, while initial support lies at $4.78 1/2, then at $4.75 1/2 and again at the 40-day moving average of $4.71 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybean futures closed a penny lower at $10.41 3/4 though settled near mid-range. May meal fell $2.5 to $297.1, near mid-range. May bean oil plunged 103 points to 46.32 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans led strength early on today before reversing and settling near unchanged as losses in the grain markets tempered traders’ risk appetite. Early in the session it seemed soybeans would take a turn leading strength, though that proved not to be the case as the session went on. Weakness in both meal and soyoil likely weighed heavily on soybeans today as they reversed from recent strength.
USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress report this afternoon. This week’s report will include the initial planting progress report for soybeans. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows expectations for the soybean crop to be 3% sowed, steady with a year ago.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 546,348 MT (20.1 million bu.) during the week ended April 10, down 267,961 MT from the previous week but within expectations from 375,000 to 750,000 MT. Accumulated inspections continue to run ahead of the pace required to hit the current USDA export estimate. USDA is slow to increase their forecast given the increasingly complex trade relationship with China.
Technical analysis: May soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged before closing modestly lower on the day. Bulls struggled to challenge psychological $10.50 resistance, which stands at the next technical objective. Overcoming that mark would render the bulls the technical advantage, though currently bulls and bears are on an overall level playing field. Support comes in at $10.34 3/4 then the 100-day moving average at $10.31 on additional selling pressure.
May meal futures rejected off psychological $300.00 resistance today, leaving that as key technical resistance. The 40-day moving average stands as resistance on the way at $297.90. A modest downtrend persists on the daily bar chart and continued selling pressure has bears targeting support at $295.00, the 20-day moving average, then $293.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 8 1/4 cents to $5.47 1/2 and nearer the daily low. May HRW wheat lost 12 3/4 cents to $5.55 1/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets saw selling pressure today, on profit taking in the SRW market after good gains Friday, and fresh technical selling in the HRW market. A rebound in the U.S. dollar index as the session wore on today was a negative outside-market element for wheat futures, as was weaker crude oil prices. Some improvement in risk appetite in the general marketplace today may have limited selling interest in wheat futures.
Weather in U.S. winter wheat country leans a bit bearish. World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country conditions the next two weeks “will likely involve improvement to the region due to an expected increase in rainfall. This change will be gradual and will take some time to occur, though.” In the first seven days of the outlook, a storm system is being monitored for next weekend that could bring some meaningful rainfall to western parts of the region in addition to eastern areas. There will be additional opportunities for rain in week two of the outlook. “Before the upcoming weekend, unusual heat Wednesday and Thursday will further dry-out the soil and associated gusty winds in combination with this will lead to more crop stress,” said the forecaster.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 604,461 MT for the week ended April 10, up 269,373 MT from the previous week and above market expectations.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop in 47% good to excellent conditions as of Sunday, which compares to 48% in the same category last week. U.S. spring wheat planting is seen at 7% complete as of Sunday, compared to 3% in the ground last week at the same time.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action in SRW suggests a market bottom is in place. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $5.75 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.17 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.56 3/4 and then at $5.65. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.30.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.41 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.67 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.77 1/4. First support is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.41 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton plummeted 180 points to 64.09 cents, closing near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures faced pressure to begin the shortened trading week, which includes the upcoming Good Friday holiday. Support from a weaker U.S. dollar and firmer equities failed to provide much support, though risk-off sentiments seemingly grew as the session progressed, which pressured the general marketplace. Looming unknowns continue to linger across the marketplace as the U.S. and China continue their trade banter.
Weather across key cotton-growing regions of the U.S. remains mixed, with recent rains having saturated the U.S. Delta, delaying fieldwork. World Weather Inc. indicates rain may return to the region April 21, while the southeastern states will be dry biased over the next ten days, raising the need for timely rain. The forecaster notes South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will be dry over the next ten days to two weeks, while a brief bout of rain is expected in West Texas this weekend, though more will be needed. Both the European and GFS models are wetter next week in West Texas, but World Weather notes leeriness about buying into the wetter bias for right now.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress & Condition Report following the close. Last week, it was estimated 4% of the cotton crop was planted as of April 6, two points behind the five-year average.
Technical analysis: May cotton succumbed to technical pressure from the 10-, 20-, and 40-day moving averages, layered from 65.89 cents to 66.22 cents. Initial support will now serve at 63.67 cents, which is backed by the April 4 low of 60.80 cents. Meanwhile, initial resistance will continue to serve at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, which are backed by resistance at 66.83 cents, 67.78 cents and the 100-day moving average of 68.28 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.