Corn
Price action: May corn futures closed 4 3/4 cents lower, however marked a 5 3/4 cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures saw some strength mid-week but gave up a significant portion of those gains in selling pressure today. Prices continue to chop in a relatively tight range as the near-term demand outlook and long-term supply outlook remain in limbo. Concerns persist surrounding demand for Mexico as trade tensions continue to escalate. The U.S. is set to import the least amount of sugar from Mexico since 2008 as drought and impending tariffs disrupt trade. Mexico has not had much of a response to U.S. tariffs, but there is some concerns about ongoing demand as the U.S. continues to escalate tensions in an effort to slow fentanyl/illegal crossings and boost the U.S. trade balance.
30-day outlook: The balance sheet remains favorable for bulls and the upcoming quarterly Grain Stocks report will give a key look into the balance sheet over the second quarter of the marketing year. Ethanol and exports were strong from December through February. The main question mark is how feed use is holding up given the smallest cattle herd in decades. Feed use was disappointing in the first quarter. Another disappointing quarter would offset a portion of the strength seen in ethanol and export use. But, if feed use did in fact rebound, it would further tighten the balance sheet, providing additional fundamental bullish strength.
90-day outlook: The March Prospective Plantings Report is right around the corner. Many private analysts have released their acreage estimates and an increase in corn plantings is essentially guaranteed, given weather cooperates during planting season. Acres are not likely to rise as high as some had guessed around 95 million acres, but acres around where USDA forecast in Outlook Forum at 94 million acres is reasonable and is just above our forecast noted in this week’s newsletter. After the March 31 report, attention will quickly turn to weather as planters hit the dirt. Given the tight balance sheet, acres coming in lower than expected and any hindrance to planting could quickly elicit a bullish reaction in the marketplace.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 3 1/4 cents to $10.09 3/4 and ended the week down 6 1/4 cents. May soymeal clawed back some early week losses, rising $3.20 to $300.30, but finished the week down $5.60. May soyoil closed 70 points lower at 42.01 cents but still marked a 42-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: Soybeans spent the week consolidating in a fairly narrow range, as pressure from the 20-day moving average continued to drive sideways price action. Tariff talk was limited, though persisting sentiments of declining biodiesel production in both the U.S. and Canada, amid current trade and policy uncertainty, put bulls on their heels as demand for soybeans could certainly continue to wane in the coming months. Meanwhile, returned strength in the U.S. dollar at midweek pressured prices further, though end-of-week corrective gains in soymeal helped limit a profound move lower. Traders will keep a keen eye on soymeal into next week, with a special focus on the March 31 Prospective Planting and quarterly Grains Stocks Reports. Look for sideways- to lower price action is likely to persist into next week as the marketplace keeps risk to a minimum into the government’s update.
30-day outlook: Early-planted soybeans have become quite popular in recent years, as many producers have found it results in plant hardiness and higher yields. While March is seemingly too early to plant, especially in northern areas, many producers have already begun the 2025-26 planting season with early soybeans. While this is supportive for final acres, planting weather will continue to be of importance as the planting season progresses deeper into spring. Some preliminary concerns exist around dryness in western areas, which could accelerate plantings early on, but should conditions persist into summer, volatility is sure to expand. World Weather Inc. predicts two rounds of well-organized rain will impact much of the Midwest over the next two weeks, allowing for beneficial increases in moisture in drier areas. However, much of the precip is not likely to be heavy enough to induce a full restoration of soil moisture in the drier areas across the Midwest, with additional precip needed in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. soybeans will be the major long-term focus as the Trump Administration continues to shake up trade flows with persistent tariff talks. Moreover, amplified ambiguity around biofuel demand and a looming ship shortage could be a major factor in decreased soybean and byproduct demand in the coming months. Meanwhile, there is a lingering concern around possible sales cancellations from China should the current trade conflict continue to develop. However, on the converse, any new trade agreements could spur a rally amid prospects of increased demand.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat futures rose 1 cent to $5.58 1/4, near mid-range and for the week up 1 1/4 cent. May HRW wheat futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $5.88 3/4, near mid-range and on the week up 2 3/4 cents. May spring wheat rose 1/4 cent to $6.05 and rose 3 1/4 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: After selling off Wednesday and Thursday the winter wheat bulls stabilized their markets today, but need to show strength early next week to keep their near-term price uptrends alive. Weekly state crop progress reports out Monday afternoon will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders, especially after the recent extreme weather conditions in U.S. winter wheat country. While the data is limited to only a few states at present, USDA will resume its full Crop Progress Report in April.
World Weather Inc. today said “concern about U.S. hard red winter wheat areas being too dry continues, despite some recent precipitation in interior western Kansas and Nebraska. Concern also remains for Russia’s southern wheat and barley crop as well as that of eastern Ukraine, Kazakhstan and d parts of Turkey.“ Winter wheat crops in much of Europe are greening up and spring planting is under way in a part of the Iberian Peninsula. Rain from southwestern to east-central Europe recently improved development potential for some winter and spring grain. There is some concern about long term dryness deep in the subsoil in Eastern Europe and more rain is needed, said World Weather.
30-day outlook: The trajectory of wheat futures prices in the coming few weeks will likely be heavily influenced by corn and soybean markets. Pro Farmer’s U.S. acreage survey results suggest USDA’s all-important March 31 Prospective Planting Report could be friendly for wheat. Our survey results suggest USDA will revise its winter wheat acreage downward. The trade has reckoned U.S. spring wheat plantings could increase this year. However, our survey indicates acres will likely decline.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index has been trending down since mid-January. However, the past two weeks the USDX has stabilized and traded sideways. A resumption of the price downtrend in the USDX would be friendly for U.S. wheat futures, making U.S. exports more price-competitive on world trade markets. History does show that trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer lasting than price trends in other markets. That hints the green back will see more depreciation in the coming few months.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 81 points to 65.27 cents, near the daily low and down 210 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures ended today solidly lower, losing every day this week and negating all of last week’s gain. Cotton traders remain rather discouraged surrounding both the short- and long-term fundamental outlook. One aspect that could boost prices in the short term is just how bearish funds are positioned. Some profit-taking is possible ahead of the March 31 prospective plantings report. While analysts are anticipating a sharp drop in acres, the lack of demand seen in recent months would still mean that supplies are abundant. Traders could cover some shorts ahead of the upcoming report in order to cover some of their large short position and remove risk, which could limit the downside over the coming week.
30-day outlook: Cotton acres are likely to fall below the 10.0 million mark for the first time since 2015. Even with acres at 9.75 million, the balance sheet is likely to remain abundant over the coming year, especially if export demand does not improve. Domestic use has shrunk each year since 2021-22 and provides just a fraction of total demand. That leaves cotton prices highly reliant on trade and trade policies, which plays a large role in why prices have seen such sustained selling pressure over the past six months. Markets anticipated a Trump presidency and understood the implication of that—another trade war drawing from demand and leading to abundant cotton supplies.
90-day outlook: Cotton sales this week were disappointing at 127,600 bales for the week ended March 13, the lowest since the week ended Oct. 3. That is down 46% from the previous week and 49% from the four-week average. The slowdown in sales is not terribly surprising considering last Thursday essentially marked a five cent bounce from the prior week’s low, so higher prices discouraged additional sales. Still, export shipments continue to prove strong, but unless sales improve, a plentiful balance sheet is likely to continue to weigh on prices.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.