Corn
Price action: May corn fell 1/4 cent to $4.57 1/2, closing nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures performed relatively well today despite gapping lower in overnight trade in the wake of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement, which subsequently spurred a selloff across the broad marketplace.
President Trump’s unveiling of an extensive new tariff strategy immediately shook the marketplace as the administration’s two-tiered approach was worse than traders expected. However, Trump did include that Mexico and Canada would not be subject to any new tariffs beyond the levies the president had previously announced. China was hit particularly hard, with the country’s overall tariff now at 54%. China rebutted earlier today, urging the U.S. to immediately cancel its latest tariffs and vowing countermeasures to safeguard its own interests.
Weather in parts of the U.S. continues to prove contentious, with strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain to continue into Saturday. World Weather Inc. notes southern Missouri into north-central Kentucky and nearby Indiana will see the heaviest rain, while lighter, but still heavy rain will occur from east-central Missouri to much of the remainder of Ohio where some local flooding is likely.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly export sales data, with net sales totaling 1.17 MMT during the week ended March 27. Net sales rose 13% from the previous week and 6% from the four-week average and landed within the range of expectations from 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
Technical analysis: May corn gapped lower overnight, opening below the 200-day moving average, which has consistently served as support as of late. However, short-covering gains lifted corn back above the level to forge a high-range close. Bulls will continue to look to secure a close above the March high of $4.77 1/2, though first resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $4.61 1/4, then at the 100- and 40-day moving averages of $4.68 1/2 and $4.76 1/2. Conversely, bears will look to edge below the recent low of $4.42, with first support at the 200-day moving average, then at $4.50 3/4 and again at $4.47 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans plunged 18 cents to $10.11 1/2 and settled nearer session lows. May meal inched 80 cents higher to $288.0. May bean oil skid 144 points to 47.06 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures saw heavy losses today. Prices gapped lower last night and settled where they opened, trading in just a 15-cent range despite falling nearly 20 cents. The initial reaction from Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement was bearish across all assets, which bled over into today’s trading as funds, investors and traders alike went scrambling to the sidelines. That alone marks today’s price action as questionable and paired with prices holding above the March lows, how prices finish tomorrow is more important than how they finished today. Tariffs on imported goods were more severe than initially anticipated, which is likely to draw a more severe than expected response from trading partners. Trump is known as a deal maker and has recently begun investigating how China has fulfilled Phase 1 trade agreements. If trade improves for the U.S., it could be a viable long-term strategy, but that doesn’t make the short-term pain any more bearable.
USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 410,200 MT for the week ended March 27, up 21% from the previous week but down 9% from the four-week average. Net sales were within pre-report expectations ranging from 250,000 to 800,000 MT. Sales generally trend lower this time of year along with export shipments. Enough has already been shipped this year that exports can limp into year end and still hit the current USDA estimate. Key will be how sales are for new crop.
Export shipments for soymeal were impressive today – the highest total since we started keeping track in the mid-90’s. USDA reported export shipments totaling 521.8 MT for the week ended March 27. That is a good sign for demand as prices have faltered below the key $300.0 mark.
Technical analysis: May soybeans opened sharply lower and spent most of the session around that mark, failing to rally mid-morning. While prices closed lower today, prices held above the March lows, marking that area as key support around $10.00. Selling below that mark targets the March 4 low of $9.91. Bulls are looking to reverse recent losses and challenge resistance at $10.16 on a bounce, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $10.17 1/2.
May meal posted modest gains today as spreaders were active across the soy complex, selling soyoil and buying meal today. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $291.3 then $292.9 on continued strength. Meanwhile, a resurgence of selling pressure finds support at $287.2, then today’s contract low of $283.5.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 3 1/4 cent to $5.36, nearer the session high. May HRW wheat gained 1/2 cent to $5.69, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market bulls fared pretty well today, given the keen risk aversion in the general marketplace that sank the U.S. stock indexes to multi-month lows following the new U.S. trade tariffs announcement Wednesday afternoon. A big decline in the U.S. dollar index to a six-month low today was a bullish outside-market element for wheat. However, strong losses in the crude oil market that are bearish for the raw commodity sector mostly offset the weaker greenback’s bullishness for wheat.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 340,000 MT for the week ended March 27, which rose noticeably from the previous week and were 40% above the four-week average. Net sales topped the pre-report range of expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said “weather conditions have been anything but settled this year in U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas. Wild temperature swings, extremely dry conditions, blowing dust and a few bouts of light rain and snow have been reported. The drought conditions have been most disturbing because with that has come some very dry and warm conditions recently and now there is a good chance for hard freezes to occur Sunday across most of the production region. The freezes will just be one more bout of stress that this year’s crop has had to endure, but with it will be some potential for minor damage to recent growth that may act as a deterrent against normal plant development until rain and warming returns again. The best news for the region, though, is that rain and snow will precede the cold and that will provide the potential for crop improvement once the cold passes.”
Technical analysis: SRW bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $5.75 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.44 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.25 1/4 and then at the contract low of $5.17 1/2.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.41 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.72 3/4 and then at $5.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.54 3/4 and then at $5.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton closed limit lower, down 300 points to 64.80 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures ended the day limit day following tariff announcements yesterday evening. The market did not take kindly to reports that China would be retaliating to heightened tariffs soon. Tariffs increased for Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, India, Japan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia as well, each a purchaser of U.S. cotton. Considering the vast majority of U.S. cotton demand comes from exports, increasing tariffs had an immediate impact on the futures market, negating the past couple of weeks of gains. USDA reported export sales for the week ended March 27 totaling 137,600 bales. That is up 32% from the previous week but was down 28% from the four-week average.
Cotton prices also likely faced liquidation selling pressure from sharp selling pressure across the general marketplace today. The S&P 500 was down nearly 4% on sharp selling while front-month crude oil futures were sharply lower, adding spillover selling pressure to cotton today.
Technical analysis: May cotton closed limit lower, breaking below the late March lows and giving bears a slight technical advantage. Bulls are hoping to hold support at 64.00 cents on continued selling pressure, which sees little backing until the contract low close of 63.24 cents. Resistance comes in at 65.00 cents then the 10-day moving average at 66.50 cents on a bounce here in the next couple of days.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.