Corn
Price action: May corn fell 4 cents to $4.57 3/4 but still managed to end nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were rebuffed in corrective, risk-off trade after securing gains in the past three sessions. Supportive outside markets likely assisted in minimizing selling pressure as the session progressed, though the marketplace held a generally subdued tone ahead of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement, due out at 3 pm CT. The tariffs are expected to take immediate effect, though the exact scope remains unclear. Moreover, the Trump administration tasked several departments with preparing reports on trade practices and tariff recommendations, which are now due. The key departments involved include Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), Department of Commerce, Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Find more information on what each department is researching here.
The Energy Information Administration released weekly ethanol production averaged 1.063 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended March 28, which was a 1% increase from the previous week, while ethanol stocks declined 2.7% to 26.61 million barrels, but remained at elevated levels, seasonally.
Early Thursday morning, USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report, with analysts expecting net sales to range between 800,000 MT and 1.6 MMT. Last week, net sales of 1.04 MMT were reported for the previous week.
Technical analysis: May corn futures held an inside range at midweek, limited by the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $4.58 1/2 and $4.61 1/2, while the 200-day moving average of $4.54 continued to serve up support. Bulls and bears are on an even playing field, with bulls looking to edge above resistance at $4.77 1/2, while bears look to breach the March low of $4.42. However, first resistance stands at $4.60 3/4, then at $4.65, while initial support lies at $4.54 and again at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybean futures slid 4 3/4 cents to $10.29 1/2 and closed near mid-range. May meal futures plunged $5.10 to $287.20. May bean oil surged 106 points to 48.50 cents, near session highs.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans opened lower overnight though did not see much followthrough selling today as prices chipped away at losses as the session went on. Traders are looking to this afternoon’s release of highly anticipated tariffs on trading partners, dubbed as ‘Liberation Day.’ Volatility was seen across the marketplace today as traders reduced risk exposure for the overnight session.
StoneX cut their outlook for Brazilian soybeans, though they still expect a record crop. They cut their production estimate to 167.5 MMT from 167.5 MMT previously. That would topple last week’s production by 12%. Heat and dryness led the agency to cut production prospects in Rio Grande do Sul, offsetting an increase to the nation’s top producing state, Mato Grosso.
Spreading was active in the soy complex again today as soyoil posted impressive gains for the second consecutive session. That has kept meal under persistent selling pressure as May meal hit a fresh contract low today.
Traders are looking forward to tomorrow’s export sales report. A Reuters poll of analysts shows expectations for sales between 250,000 and 800,000 MT. Last week, sales totaled 338,469 MT.
USDA reported daily sales of 135,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines during 2024-25.
Technical analysis: May soybeans gave up a portion of Tuesday’s gains as positioning drove trade on light volume. Bulls and bears are on an overall level playing field. Bulls are ultimately looking to overcome resistance at $10.34 1/4, the 100-day moving average. Strength above that mark targets resistance at $10.45 3/4. Support stands at $10.24 1/2, the 40-day moving average which capped the downside today, then $10.18 1/2.
May meal pushed to fresh contract lows today as bears maintain full control of the technical advantage. Additional selling targets support at $285.00 then $280.00. Resurgent strength finds resistance at the prior contract low at $289.70, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $293.90.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 1 1/4 cents to $5.39 1/4, near mid-range. May HRW wheat gained 3 1/4 cents to $5.68 1/2, near mid-range. May spring wheat futures sunk 1 1/2 cents to $5.92 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw mixed price action as traders await the afternoon announcement from the Trump administration on new trade tariff levies. The uncertainty of this matter did limit buying interest in the grain markets today. Losses in the U.S. dollar index and gains in crude oil today were supportive outside market elements for wheat that did limit selling interest.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, an active weather pattern will continue through Saturday before a prolonged period of dry-biased weather occurs. “This will make the precipitation that occurs this week of high importance. Enough rain is expected for most of the region to receive at least some increase in topsoil moisture. Southeastern areas will be the wettest. Though the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles should receive some meaningful moisture, too.” Temperatures will be trending unusually cold this week and some snow is expected in western areas in addition to rain. Widespread freezes will occur Saturday through Monday. Much warmer weather is expected in the second week of the outlook, said World Weather.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of minus 100,000 to up 300,000 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of zero to 200,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: SRW bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $5.75 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.44 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.32 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $5.23 1/2.
HRW bears still have the overall technical advantage. However, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern may be forming in May HRW futures. Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.41 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.72 3/4 and then at $5.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.60 3/4 and then at $5.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton slipped 45 points to 67.80 cents.
Fundamental analysis: May cotton made a fresh for-the-move high before reversing lower and posting modest losses on the day. Traders are looking to this afternoon’s release of specific reciprocal tariffs going into place with U.S. trading partners. There is some risk of heightening tensions with buyers of cotton in Asia, potentially drawing even more from U.S. exports, which are already struggling. More will be known on that front this evening. Cotton futures saw little support from a weaker dollar today. After bouncing from the mid-March lows throughout the latter half of last month, the dollar index is poised to move lower once again, drawing down further from the peak in early January. A weaker dollar could help boost exports as U.S. supplies become relatively cheaper on the world market, but if additional trade restrictions are put in place, the impact will likely be nil. Traders will look to tomorrow morning’s USDA export sales report to see how buyers reacted over the past couple of weeks as prices moved lower. Sales have been poor but shipments have been strong over the past couple reports.
Technical analysis: May cotton futures forged a fresh high before turning lower. Bulls maintain a slight technical advantage on the daily bar chart. Resistance stands at today’s high of 68.58 cents, which is quickly backed by the 100-day moving average at 68.72 cents then the psychological 70.00 cent mark. Support comes in at 67.37 cents then the 40-day moving average at 66.93 cents on continued weakness.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.