Corn
Price action: May corn futures closed 6 3/4 cents lower to $4.58 1/2, which marked a 10 3/4 cent loss on the week.
5-day outlook: After posting impressive gains last week, corn bulls struggled to garner much bullish momentum this week, showing relative weakness compared to wheat and soybeans. Funds actively covered long positions over the course of this week. Heightened trade tensions and a lack of bullish news in Tuesday’s USDA reports were not enough to continue to keep bullish momentum going. There is very little scheduled catalyst next week, so markets are likely to continue in rangebound trade. Bulls are actively looking to close prices above resistance at this week’s high of $4.77 1/2 while selling pressure has bears eyeing the March 4 for-the-move low close at $4.51 1/2.
30-day outlook: As trade tensions continue to rise, some importers are likely looking to diversify their corn imports. Brazil and Argentina are both likely prospects and considering crops are still developing for both, weather in both countries remain a key factor for corn prices here in the next month. Regular showers are expected over the course of the next few weeks from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul to Goias and southern Minas Gerias in Brazil, maintaining mostly favorable conditions for safrinha corn. Meanwhile, portions of Minas Gerias into Bahia and Espirito Santo are not expected to receive significant rain, potentially straining crops, says World Weather Inc. Heat and lack of precip are expected to continue to weigh on crops in Argentina, stressing immature crops, the forecaster says.
90-day outlook: USDA will release their Prospective Plantings report later this month. Shortly thereafter, planters will be hitting the fields in force. While demand, particularly export demand, will remain a key factor in the market, more eyes will be on the supply side of the balance sheet as many analysts anticipate a sharp uptick in acres from last year. The pace of the planting season historically has a big effect on how yields turn out at the end of the year as well, which will be garnering a lot of market attention. If acres do not rise as much as anticipated, or if spring planting does not go smoothly, markets could quickly recuperate some of the recent losses.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 5 1/4 cents to $10.16, but gave up 9 cents on the week, while May soymeal fell $1.20 to $305.90 but marked a $1.50 weekly gain. May soyoil rose 31 points to 41.59 cents but lost 183 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans forged modest end-of-week gains with weakness across grains crimping buyer interest. USDA’s Supply & Demand Report earlier in the week provided little direction, with ending stocks unchanged for the second month in a row. However, today’s price action could be an indication that a near-term floor has been established as the spring planting season approaches, though soymeal will continue to influence the direction of the complex, as well as any escalating trade tension.
30-day outlook: USDA’s Prospective Planting and coinciding Quarterly Stocks Report, due out March 31 will be the next major market driver. Traders are expecting soybean acres to slide from year-ago amid comfortable global and domestic supplies, especially following South America’s record 2024-25 harvest. However, a surprise in quarterly stocks could exacerbate a move in either direction.
90-day outlook: U.S. exports and crush will be closely monitored as the marketing-year advances. USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report showed a notable increase in soybean sales during the week ended March 6, which nearly doubled from the previous week. However, there is looming uncertainty around possible cancellations if trade tensions escalate with China or conversely, if a trade deal involving heftier soybean purchases could potentially transpire.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat futures fell 5 1/2 cents to $5.57 and nearer the daily low. On the week, May SRW rose 5 3/4 cents. May HRW wheat futures lost 1 1/2 cents to $5.86 and nearer the daily low after hitting a three-week high early on. For the week, May HRW rose 21 1/4 cents. May spring wheat futures fell 2 cents to $6.01 3/4 but marked a 9-cent weekly gain.
5-day outlook: Wheat producers and traders will keep a closer eye on weather in U.S. wheat areas the next several days. World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW and HRS country, “concerns of dryness are increasing for the region. Drought is not currently that significant, but periods of more warm temperatures and dry air will be accelerating drought development in the next 10 days. The concern also relates to more big wind events. Wind speeds today will be extreme with some gusts as high as 60 to 80 mph, especially in the southern half of the region.” Another windstorm is likely Tuesday with 55 to 70 mph wind gusts in some areas. Some precipitation will occur in the first week of the outlook, including a potential blizzard in the Northern Plains. Meantime, recent heat has induced a little greening in some HRW areas, but frequent freezing and thawing of the soil is also a concern for plant health, especially in areas where wheat damage occurred because of extreme cold and no snow cover in January, said World Weather.
30-day outlook: The U.S. and its major trading partners slinging tariffs at each other has unnerved financial markets, with the U.S. stock indexes presently trapped in steep price downtrends on the daily charts. This risk aversion in the general marketplace has spilled over into skittish bulls in the grain markets and may continue to limit the upside in wheat prices in the coming weeks. With this week’s monthly supply and demand report from USDA out of the way, wheat trader focus turns to the March 31 USDA grain stocks and planted acreage updates. These reports rank among the most important USDA data points of the year.
90-day outlook: Worries about elevated global trade tensions producing a world economic recession will likely persist for the next few months and will impact wheat prices. Also, as springtime progresses the U.S. corn and soybean crops will be going into the ground and weather in the U.S. becomes more critical for those crops. That means the wheat markets will likely look more to the corn and soybean markets for daily price direction in April and May. Wheat traders will continue to monitor the U.S. dollar index, whose price is presently trending down with no strong, early chart clues of a market bottom being close at hand. That’s a friendly element for the grain markets.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rallied 84 points to 67.37 cents, marking a 130-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures were able to resume midweek momentum, driven by solid outside market support as the U.S. dollar waned and equities soared. A close was held above the 40-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month, although a reach into overbought territory could curb an extension higher into next week. Nonetheless, look for outside markets to continue to influence direction of the natural fiber.
30-day outlook: USDA’s Prospective Planting Report and weather will continue to be the main market influence as spring planting efforts ramp up. Cotton acres are likely to drop notably year-over-year amid floundering prices, though not-so-favorable weather in U.S. cotton growing areas could further affect planted acreage and ultimately production. World Weather Inc. notes rain is still needed in the southwestern dry region, southern California and both South and West Texas to provide more favorable soil moisture for spring planting. Additional rain is also needed in the southeastern states despite some moisture this week.
90-day outlook: Cotton demand for cotton will be closely monitored as the marketing year progresses, with special attention to exports, which have proven persistently leaden. However, USDA reported upland cotton sales of 271,800 RB, which were up 13% from the previous week and four-week average, while exports during the week scored a marketing-year high for the second straight week at 403,500 RB. Low prices have seemingly spurred export interest, which will need to continue for a sustained rally.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.