Corn
Price action: May corn rose 7 cents to $4.69, marking a high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures extended Wednesday’s gains, edging above the 100-day moving average as crude oil gains helped offset pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar. USDA’s weekly export sales data also lent support, with net sales for the week ended March 13 jumping 55% from the previous week to 1.5 MMT, which were 45% above the four-week average and near the upper end of analysts’ pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.7 MMT.
Meanwhile, the International Grains Council (IGC) released its initial projections for the 2025-26 global crop. It forecasts global corn production at 1.269 billion metric tons, up from 1.217 billion in 2024-25 amid expected increases in the U.S, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. U.S. corn production is expected to climb to a record 394.2 MMT, up from 377.6 MMT in 2024-25, while Brazil is forecasted at 130 MMT (vs. 112.3 MMT in 2024–25), Argentina at 59.1 MMT (53 MMT) and Ukraine at 30 MMT (26.5 MMT).
World Weather Inc. reports China is advertised to trend drier over the next week to ten days in areas where dry conditions are already a concern for early season rice and corn planting. This may slow planting/transplanting and emergence for some of the driest areas, according to the forecaster.
Technical analysis: May corn ended the session above the 100-day moving average of $4.66 1/2, though resistance at the 20-day moving average of $4.70 3/4 curbed a move higher. Bulls continue to look to overcome the 20-day and then the March high of $4.77 1/2, while bears continue to look to extend below the 200-day moving average, currently trading at $4.54 3/4, then the March low of $4.42 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans closed 4 3/4 cents higher to $10.13 and near session highs. May meal settled 60 cents lower at $297.10. May bean oil climbed 35 points to 42.71 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures saw modest spillover strength from the corn market today, putting an end to the recent string of losses. Gains today can’t be chalked up to more than corrective in nature as bears continue to maintain full control of the technical advantage as prices continue to maintain the technical advantage. News today had a bit of a mixed tone. There are concerns about throttling down biofuel production due to unfavorable policy shifts that have been seen since the political shift taking place since the election. This was confirmed in shrinking usage for biofuels noted by high soy stocks in January and crushing plants idling in February. Weaker biofuel production and less investment in infrastructure supporting biofuels are a significant shift in the marketplace that will be difficult to quantify in the short term. On the other hand, Abiove lowered their Brazilian production forecast to 170.9 MMT, down from 171.7 MMT. A hit to Brazilian production is likely to drive additional demand to the U.S. market.
USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 352,600 MT during the week ended March 13, down 53% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average. Net sales missed the pre-report range of 400,000 to 900,000 MT. Soybean sales have been somewhat all over the place in the past couple of weeks. Still, sales can limp into the end of the year and the current USDA forecast will likely still be met.
Technical analysis: May soybean futures posted modest gains today but struggled to break above 10-day moving average resistance at $10.14 1/4 as bears continue to maintain the technical advantage. Strength above that mark would have bulls eyeing the 20-day moving average at $10.21 3/4, which is quickly reinforced by psychological resistance at $10.25. Support comes in at $10.08 1/4 then the psychological $10.00 mark on a reversal back lower.
May meal futures posted modest losses after opening higher last night as bears retain the technical advantage. Strong support comes in at $295.00 which is reinforced by the March 4 low of $291.30. Bulls are looking to tackle psychological $300.00 resistance before challenging the 40-day moving average at $304.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 6 1/4 cents to $5.57 1/4, nearer the session low. May HRW wheat dropped 8 1/4 cents to $5.86 1/2, nearer the daily low. May spring wheat futures fell 7 cents to $6.04 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more profit-taking pressure from the speculators today, following recent gains. The wheat market bulls appear to be exhausted but they need to show fresh power soon to keep the speculator bears from piling on. A higher U.S. dollar index today was a bearish outside-market element for wheat markets, but firmer crude oil prices somewhat offset the bullishness of the higher greenback.
Also negative for wheat futures today, USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales reductions of 248,800 MT for the week ended March 13, a marketing-year low, and down noticeably from the previous week and four-week average. Net sales were below the pre-report range of expectations.
Furthermore, the International Grains Council projected a larger world wheat crop in 2025-26, at 132.9 MMT, up from 119.4 in 2024-25.
World Weather Inc. today said that in HRW country “the weather in the region will be calmer for a while. The next potentially impactful storm system is March 28-30. Before then, there will be some windy days, but not nearly as windy as that of recent. Recent precipitation has been good. However, much more is needed, especially in southwestern production areas.” In the northern Plains, some snow and a little rain are expected in the first week of the outlook. “This will be better than none and will provide some minor increase in topsoil moisture. However, a bigger precipitation event is still needed in order to better support crop development this spring. A potentially larger storm system is still being monitored for the March 28-30 timeframe,” said World Weather.
Technical analysis: SRW wheat market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.68 and then at this week’s high of $5.75 1/4. First support is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.40.
The HRW bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the October 2024 high of $6.47 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at $6.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.83 and then at $5.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures closed points 27 lower to 66.08 cents, nearer session lows.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw modest selling pressure today as prices closed lower for the fourth consecutive session. Strength in the U.S. dollar index likely weighed on cotton futures today as the index rose around 450 points, a sharp contrast to recent weakness. The S&P 500 saw volatile trade today as well, likely bleeding over into cotton futures. Stocks traded on either side of unchanged before closing lower on the day, consistent with the volatile trade seen recently across the marketplace in recent weeks. Even more pertinent to cotton traders was today’s rather poor export sales report. After being somewhat impressive recently, export sales came in at 127,600 bales for the week ended March 13, the lowest since the week ended Oct. 3. That is down 46% from the previous week and 49% from the four-week average. The slowdown in sales is not terribly surprising considering last Thursday essentially marked a five cent bounce from the prior week’s low, so higher prices discouraged additional sales. Still, export shipments continue to prove strong, but unless sales improve, a plentiful balance sheet is likely to continue to weigh on prices.
Technical analysis: Cotton futures closed decisively below the 10-day moving average for the first time in two weeks as bears retook a slight technical advantage today. That area marks initial resistance at 66.37 cents. Strength above that mark has bulls targeting resistance at 67.12 cents. Support comes in at today’s low of 65.76 cents then the psychological 65.00 cent mark on continued selling pressure.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.