Corn
Price action: May corn fell 13 1/4 cents to $4.56 1/4, the lowest close since Dec. 24.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures were embattled to begin the week due to persisting risk-off sentiments as the marketplace cautiously awaits President Trump’s tariffs and likely retaliatory actions. Nearby futures sank to over a two-month low, violating both the 100- and 200-day moving averages in the process. Recent selling has kicked up some export interest, with Mexico purchasing 114,000 MT for delivery during 2024-25, as reported by USDA in a daily flash early this morning.
Also weighing on the corn market lately, has been advancing safrinha planting efforts in Brazil. AgRural reported as of last Thursday, plantings surged 16 percentage points to 80%, although that was still six points behind year-ago. World Weather Inc. reported earlier today that rain in Brazil was sporadic and light enough over the weekend so that most of the nation’s crop areas experienced some drying. The forecaster noted this was most welcome in center-west crop areas where safrinha planting conditions further improved after rain delays last week.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly export inspections data, which showed net corn inspections totaled 1.351 MMT (53.2 million bu.) during the week ended Feb. 27, up 185,005 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 950,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
Following today’s close, USDA will release its Grain Crushings Report, with analysts expecting corn-for-ethanol use at 465.8 million bu., which would be down 7.4 million bu. (1.6%) from December but up 24.7 million bu. (5.6%) from last year.
Technical analysis: May corn ended the session below the 100- and 200-day moving averages, currently trading at $4.63 1/2 and $4.57 1/4 for the first time since early December. Bears have the near-term technical advantage, with a steep downtrend on the daily barchart. The next target for bears to secure a close below $4.50, while bulls will need to forge a close above $4.85. Interim resistance stands at today’s failed support levels, then at $4.79 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 14 1/4 cents to $10.11 1/2, marking the lowest close since Jan. 9, while May soymeal fell $2.20 to $298.00, ending nearer the session low. May soyoil slipped 63 points to 43.49 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures extended losses for the fourth straight session as technical headwinds roar and traders remain cautious ahead of additional tariffs, which are set to go into effect on Tuesday. China’s state-backed Global Times reported the country is preparing for countermeasures against new U.S. import tariffs, with agricultural exports in its sights following comments from President Trump, which indicated an additional 10% duty on Chinese products. Moreover, the President is expected to announce whether he will implement 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada (with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports).
Soybean harvest continues to advance in Brazil, jumping 11 percentage points to 50% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was two points ahead of the same date last year.
Earlier today, USDA released its weekly export inspection data, which showed net soybean inspections of 695,158 MT (25.5 million bu.) for the week ended Feb. 27, down 183,457 MT from the previous week and within the expected pre-report range of 350,000 to 975,000 MT.
Following the close, USDA will detail January soybean crush, which analysts expect will total 210,9 million bu., according to a Bloomberg survey. If realized, it would reflect a 6.8 million bu. (3.1%) decline from the all-time record in December but up 16.1 million bu. (8.3%) from year ago.
Technical analysis: May soybeans slid to a seven-week low amid pressure from the 100-day moving average, currently trading at $10.30 3/4. Bears have the near-term technical advantage and will continue to seek a close below $10.00, with interim support serving at $10.11 1/2. Conversely, bulls will need to overcome the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages, layered at $10.43 1/2, $10.50 1/2 and $10.54.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 8 cents to $5.47 3/4, near the daily low and hit a five-week low. May HRW wheat lost 11 cents to $5.62, near the daily low and hit a five-week low. May HRS futures fell 6 1/2 cents to $5.91 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets continue in their steep price downdraft amid a risk-off trader mentality in the general marketplace to start the trading week. The specter of more U.S. trade tariffs going into effect against major U.S. trading partners this week has traders and investors on edge, which is spilling over into selling interest in the grains. Corn and soybean futures prices were also sharply down today and hit multi-week lows. Strong losses in the U.S. dollar index today did not support buying interest in the grain markets. Losses in the crude oil futures market today that saw prices hit a 10-week low also worked against the grain market bulls.
Also a negative today, ABARES raised its 2024-25 Australian wheat production forecast by 2.2 MMT, to 34.1 MMT, which would be the third- largest crop ever.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 389,593 MT for the week ended Feb. 27, up 1,738 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said “U.S. wheat is losing winter hardiness due to unusually warm temperatures. Some greening may occur in the southern states from Texas to the southeastern states by this time next week.” There will be no threatening cold for the next 10 days. Snow will fall from Colorado into South Dakota and Nebraska, protecting some wheat from cooler temperatures and the moisture will be welcome when the snow melts. Rain is still needed in the central and southwestern Plains, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are now trending down again. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $5.90. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.63 1/2 and then at $5.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.47 and then at $5.37 3/4.
The HRW bulls next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.42 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.79 3/4 and then at $5.91. First support is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.42 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rose 26 points to 65.51 cents but still ended near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures were somewhat of a bright spot to begin the week, notching modest gains while the rest of the ag complex faced an extended meltdown ahead of potential tariffs. Boosting the natural fiber was a sharply lower U.S. dollar and news the official Chinese Manufacturing PMI pushed back into expansion territory in a weekend report, while U.S. manufacturing activity grew for the second straight month in February, as reported in the Institute of Supply Management’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). However, the new orders index, a gauge of future demand, was down in January and snapped three consecutive months of expansion.
World Weather Inc. reports cotton areas in far northern Argentina will continue drying this week with crop moisture stress returning to the region. Rain next week will be welcome and should restore more favorable crop development conditions. Meanwhile, cotton areas in Brazil will be drying out in Bahia over the next ten days while rain impacts Mato Grosso and neighboring areas, maintaining a favorable outlook for development.
Technical analysis: May cotton ended the session modestly firmer after holding an inside range. Bears continue to firmly grasp the near term technical advantage and will look toward securing a close below 63.00 cents, with interim support serving at Friday’s low of 65.18 cents, then at 64.73 cents, 64.22 cents and 63.25 cents. Bulls will need to edge above the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at 67.08 cents, 67.41 cents and 68.00 cents, with additional resistance standing at the 200- and 100-day moving averages of 70.72 cents and 72.64 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.